11 Potential Fantasy Football Busts To Avoid (2024)
As the 2024 fantasy football season approaches, it’s crucial to identify players who might underperform. These players are fantasy football busts to avoid in fantasy football drafts. Big names like De’Von Achane and Austin Ekeler could end up as costly fantasy football busts due to factors like injuries, age, or team change. Several factors go into building a winning fantasy football team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. To help fantasy players build an elite roster, let’s look at 11 bust candidates that I won’t draft in 2024.
2024 Fantasy Football Busts To Avoid
To help fantasy players build an elite roster, here are 11 bust candidates to avoid in 2024. Keep reading to find out my top fantasy football busts for the 2024 NFL season and the reasons behind their potential letdowns.
Fantasy Football Busts: Running Backs
De’Von Achane, Dolphins: ADP 23.7 | RB7
Achane was outstanding as a rookie, averaging 7.8 yards per rushing attempt. Furthermore, he was the RB4 on a points-per-game basis. However, the former Texas A&M star struggled with injuries, missing six games and leaving others early.
The star rookie’s fantasy average was inflated by one massive performance, scoring 27.8% of his fantasy point total for the year in Week 3 against the Denver Broncos. More importantly, Miami kept Raheem Mostert and drafted Jaylen Wright this offseason, making Achane part of a crowding backfield.
Zack Moss, Bengals: ADP 92.9 | RB27
Some have high hopes for Moss after the veteran averaged 22 touches and 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his five healthy contests without Jonathan Taylor last season. However, he was far from an efficient running back with the Indianapolis Colts.
Moss’ 3.1% explosive run rate, 2.29 yards after contact per attempt, and 51% stuff rate during those five games would have ranked in the bottom six among 33 running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Fantasy players should wait 2.5 rounds and draft Chase Brown (ADP 123.4 | RB38) instead of Moss.
Austin Ekeler, Commanders: ADP 130.7 | RB41
Adding Ekeler was an outstanding move for the Commanders, as he is a solid pass protector and a reliable receiver out of the backfield. However, Brian Robinson Jr. will be the lead back and the goal line specialist in 2024.
The veteran running back has had back-to-back seasons with 2.99 or lower yards after contact per attempt average after averaging at least 3.01 or more yards each of his first five years in the NFL (per PFF). While some believe Ekeler will make the backfield a near 50-50 split, Robinson should be the featured guy.
Kyren Williams, Rams: ADP 28.5 | RB8
Williams was the RB6, averaging 19.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season. However, he was a volume-based RB1. Williams ranked 20th in yards after contact per attempt, 18th in missed forced tackle rate, and 26th in explosive run rate among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data).
More importantly, Blake Corum will have a meaningful role on offense, especially after Williams has dealt with multiple leg injuries in his career. While the former Notre Dame star is still an RB1, Williams comes with significant risk.
Fantasy Football Busts: Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs, Texans: ADP 32.4 | WR23
Fantasy players should avoid drafting Diggs anywhere near his current ADP. The veteran wide receiver has had back-to-back years with late-season struggles. He was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run, both lower averages than Noah Brown (per Fantasy Points Data).
More importantly, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% target per route run rate from 2023 in Houston after Nico Collins and Tank Dell had impressive years last season. The veteran wide receiver is severely overrated and should get drafted as a low-end WR3.
Keenan Allen, Bears: ADP 53.9 | WR33
While Allen was the WR3 in half-point PPR scoring on a points-per-game basis in 2023, his days as a must-start receiver are over. He is a volume-based pass catcher, averaging 9.4 targets per game in his career. Unfortunately, the veteran won’t see the same target volume in Chicago.
DJ Moore will remain the No. 1 wide receiver after having a career year in 2023. Meanwhile, Allen will have to fight off Rome Odunze for snaps and targets. More importantly, the veteran has missed 11 games over the past two seasons because of injuries.
Jordan Addison, Vikings: ADP 80.1 | WR47
Minnesota will have a new Week 1 starting quarterback for the first time since 2018. Addison was the WR21 as a rookie, averaging 11 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he was productive because of a high touchdown rate (9.3%).
Furthermore, seven of his 10 receiving scores came in the eight games with Kirk Cousins under center. Addison was the WR37, averaging 8.7 fantasy points per game without Cousins. He is on my do-not-draft list this year after being a boom-or-bust touchdown-dependent receiver last season.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks: ADP 102.6 | WR52
Unfortunately, Lockett’s fantasy production fell off a cliff in 2023. After averaging 12.1 or more half-point PPR fantasy points per game in five straight years, the veteran averaged only 9.6 last season. Furthermore, he had fewer than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2017.
Lockett had five receiving touchdowns last year after totaling eight or more in five consecutive seasons. More importantly, his role on offense will decline, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba heading into his second year. He is significantly getting overdrafted as a ninth-round pick.
Fantasy Football Busts: Tight Ends
David Njoku, Browns: ADP 102.1 | TE11
The veteran tight end averaged a career-high 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season. However, Njoku was the TE13 in the five contests that Deshaun Watson had at least six pass attempts, averaging 6.3 fantasy points per contest.
By comparison, he was the TE1 in the five games with Joe Flacco under center, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per matchup. Unfortunately, Njoku won’t catch passes from Flacco in 2024. Furthermore, Jerry Jeudy’s arrival means there is one more receiver for Watson to target over the veteran tight end.
Brock Bowers, Raiders: ADP 96.6 | TE10
Many loved Bowers before the 2024 NFL Draft. However, his redraft value took a hit after getting drafted by the Raiders. Davante Adams (175) and Jakobi Meyers (106) accounted for nearly 53% of the team’s target share last year. Furthermore, Bowers will have competition at tight end from Michael Mayer.
Meanwhile, head coach Antonio Pierce wants to be a run-heavy offense, especially with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell under center. While he is a generational talent, Bowers might have to wait a year to have consistent fantasy value.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles: ADP 114.7 | TE12
While Goedert remains a solid starting-caliber NFL tight end, fantasy players should avoid drafting him as their TE1. He averaged 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year, his lowest average since his rookie season.
Furthermore, Goedert had three receiving touchdowns, making it the third time in the past four years that he had three or fewer scores. The Eagles’ passing attack flows through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, leaving the tight end fighting for targets. Moreover, his role on offense will decline with Saquon Barkley in town.
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