2021 NFL Power Rankings: Pre-Training Camp 3.0
In part 3 of my 2021 Pre-Training Camp NFL Power Rankings series, I will discuss teams that are lingering in purgatory, meaning they could contend for a playoff spot while also having the same odds of missing. I will also dive into teams that can legitimately qualify for the postseason when it is all said and done. Let’s take a look at who these teams are in my 2021 NFL Power Rankings: Pre-Training Camp 3.0.
Tier 3: Short-Term Rebuilds
20. Pittsburgh Steelers — 8.5 (O -110 / U -110)
The Steelers are a mess. On defense, they still have their studs, but lost quite a few key players that include LB Bud Dupree, CB Steven Nelson, and CB Mike Hilton. The back end of their defense is not as reliable losing both of those assets. What’s more, longtime LB Vince Williams announced his retirement ahead of training camp.
If that wasn’t bad enough, the Steelers are only returning one starter from their 2020 offensive line. OT Alejandro Villanueva signed with the Ravens, C Maurkice Pouncey retired, OL Matt Feiler signed with the Chargers and OL David DeCastro was released. Although the Steelers inked oft-injured Trai Turner to fill one of the voids, you cant depend on Pittsburgh’s front five.
With uneasiness along their offensive front, the Steelers will be hard-pressed to run the ball even in the wake of the RB Najee Harris addition. We also have questions about Ben Roethlisberger‘s arm. His deep ball was just not there — cc Drew Brees in his final few seasons.
The Steelers will be a tough out. But they will miss the playoffs. They are a lot closer to a last-place team than a first-place team, especially since they play in the AFC North.
19. New Orleans Saints — 9 (O +103 / U -125)
Another team flirting with a short-term rebuild is the Saints. Although they have two quarterbacks competing to replace Drew Brees, I’m not sure either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is the long-term answer. And guess what, GM Mickey Loomis and HC Sean Payton aren’t sure either. This is a year in which the Saints want to see what they have sans Brees. Hey, maybe we see Ian Book, who New Orleans took 133rd overall in April’s draft.
Outside of RB Alvin Kamara, RB Latavius Murray, and WR Michael Thomas, the Saints have ample question marks with skill position talent. Payton always made it work with Brees. Only this time, Brees isn’t coming back. Similar to the Steelers, the Saints had to sacrifice talent because of the salary cap. Two of their biggest losses were CB Janoris Jenkins, who had a career resurgence with the Saints, and DE Trey Hendrickson, who had a nice payday in a weak free-agent class for pass rushers.
If Hill is under center, he will need the Saints to play stout and opportunistic defense to win games. I don’t see that happening. Look for the Saints to be on the outside looking into the playoff bracket in January.
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Tier: Playoff Contenders
18. Los Angeles Chargers — 9 (O -110 / U -110)
How can you not include the Chargers in the playoff conversation? We know what this QB Justin Herbert-led offense will do, especially if RB Austin Ekeler plays most of the year. However, Los Angeles’ defense has a shot to be special. I am infatuated with HC Brandon Staley coming over from the Rams. If his superior players that include S Derwin James and DE Joey Bosa can shake the injury bug, the Chargers’ defense will take a massive leap in 2021. In that case, they will be positioning for a playoff berth in January.
17. Miami Dolphins — 9 (O -150 / U +123)
I don’t need to gush over the Dolphins’ defense. They will be one of the best in the NFL under HC Brian Flores. However, Miami has an issue at quarterback. I don’t believe in QB Tua Tagovailoa. He didn’t pass the eye test for me, especially in games in which Miami was trailing. The good news? The Dolphins added WR Jaylen Waddle and WR Will Fuller.
The bad news? Miami will have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, which will ultimately cost them and put Tagovailoa in a worse spot. If Tagovailoa works, the sky is the limit for the Dolphins. If he doesn’t, the Dolphins will be in the quarterback business next offseason.
16. Washington Football Team — 8 (O -141 / U +116)
I have the Football Team at No. 15. However, I have already dropped them back compared to the consensus and they can continue to fall. Don’t get me wrong, I am all-in on DC Jack Del Rio‘s defense. DL Chase Young is one of the best I have seen in a long time, and he is only entering year two.
My issue with Washington is their offense, more so, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. While Fitz is an upgrade over what the Football Team had under center in 2020, there is a reason why he spent the first half of his carer as a journeyman backup and only recently emerged as a big-number journeyman starter. Don’t be surprised if we see Taylor Heinicke at some point.
15. New England Patriots — 9 (O -134 / U +110)
When the Patriots are in the playoffs in 20212, don’t say I didn’t warn you. It’s coming. New England went on a free agent signing frenzy. While that approach normally does not bode well for most clubs, this is a Bill Belichick team. He knows what he wants and needs for success. The patriots’ defense could be the league’s No. 1 unit. They have studs and guys who can start on other teams as backups. Additions that include LB Matt Judon, DL Ryan Anderson, DL Christian Barmore, LB Kyle Van Noy, and DL Davon Godchaux make last year’s No. 7 ranked unit in PPG allowed (22.1) one of the most feared defenses in the NFL.
New England’s offense will be improved. Whether it is QB Cam Newton under center or QB Mac Jones, the patriots made enough offseason moves for this offense to succeed as long as the quarterback isn’t giving the ball or the game away. The passing attack will run through the new tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry but don’t forget Nelson Agholor over the top. The Pats won’t field a great offense, but they will pout one that is good enough, paired with their defense, to advance to the postseason.
14. Minnesota Vikings — 9 (O +123 / U -150)
In 2020, we saw one of the worst defenses HC Mike Zimmer ever out on a field. However, between free-agent additions — DT Dalvin Tomlinson, CB Patrick Peterson, DL Michael Pierce, S Xavier Woods— and young players getting that much more acclimated with Zimmer’s philosophy, expect the Vikings’ defense to be an improved unit this season. The Kirk Cousins-led offense will be explosive between RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson‘s pop. However, Cousins is the Wild Card here. If he can string together a few meaningful wins, the Vikings will be flirting with a playoff spot.
13. Tennessee Titans — 10 (O +130 / U -159)
There are a lot of good things to say about the Titans… on offense. WR Julio Jones alone will fill the voids left by WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries, and TE Jonnu Smith in free agency. While they lost OC Arthur Smith — that is a huge one — the trio of QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, and WR A.J. Brown along with Jones will be hard to stop. It’s pick your poison when comes to defending the Titans’ offense.
Tennessee’s defense, however, will be their ultimate downfall. They blew up their secondary this offseason based on how poorly they performed in 2020. The defense as a whole was bottom five despite finishing No, 1 in turnover differential (+11). I doubt we see much improvement from their offseason additions that include LB Bud Dupree and oft-injured first-round pick CB Caleb Farley. Barring a leap into the middle of the pack defensively, the Titans will fall short.
12. Arizona Cardinals — 8 (O -134 / U +110)
I am clearly bullish on the Cardinals. Even in a tough NFC West, the Cardinals are in the conversation. I love what they did in the offseason adding WR A.J. Green, RB James Conner, DE J.J. Watt, and C Rodney Hudson. All high-upside veterans, but for Green, Conner, and Watt, their health is the issue. If those three players can play for most of the year, and when I say play, I mean play close to their potential, the Cardinals will make a surprise run. QB Kyler Murray is the real deal. If it wasn’t for his Week 11 shoulder injury last season, there was a good shot that we saw three teams from the NFC West in the postseason.
Arizona’s defense lost CB Patrick Peterson, a locker room presence who will be hard to replace. But DE Chandler Jones on the other side of Watt will menace enemy quarterbacks will the team’s past two first-round draft picks, hybrid Isaiah Simmons and LB Zaven Collins could really change the landscape of a defense that deceptively finished 13th in PPG allowed (23.1) in 2020.
The Cards have a meager win total set by Vegas at DraftKings which is set at 8. I will take the Over and not think twice.
11. Indianapolis Colts — 10 (O +115 / U -139)
The Colts and Titans will be in a tight race for the AFC South crown. However, Indianapolis fields the better defense, which will make a difference at the latter part of the schedule. While the Titans were the No. 1 team in Turnover Differential (+11), the Colts were No. 2 (+10). On offense, the Colts will bring on QB Carson Wentz to run the show. Reunited with Franck Reich, a top-end line and a run-centric system, Wentz should thrive, even with average at best pass-catchers. If Wentz plays as he did prior to his 2017 injury, the Colts will be a tough out in the postseason.
10. San Francisco 49ers — 10.5 (O +107 / U -130)
While Vegas has San Francisco’s win total set at 10.5, I’m a skeptic. The 49ers’ defense isn’t what it used to be. Injuries were not their friend on either side of the ball in 2020, but especially on defense. Not to mention the loss of DC Robert Saleh and CB Richard Sherman, amongst others.
The 49ers’ offense should be viewed with a high ceiling no matter who is under center. But a quarterback controversy is never a good thing for any team, especially well-coached ones. We know that Shanahan can run the ball, but their pass-catching assets must remain on the field and healthy, importantly, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. Brandon Aiyuk is a stud.
9. Seattle Seahawks — 9.5 (O -134 / U +110)
The Seahawks have a lot of question marks. QB Russell can’t be the answer to all the questions. Seattle’s offense will work. The Gerald Everett addition could pay dividends at tight end. But will Pete Carroll let Wilson cook? Or, will he continue to emphasize the run despite the fact that Seattle’s wide receivers are two of the best big-play threats in the game?
On the other side of the ball, I don’t know what Seattle is. Last season, the Seahawks had a historically bad defense in the first half, which did a complete 180-degree turn in the second half, Consequentially, their offense did the same, which did not help.
Defensively, the Seahawks lost key players, importantly, in the secondary — Shaquill Griffin comes to mind. That defense has a lot of holes. It won’t be good enough for Seattle to get to a Championship. In fact, the Seahawks could have trouble getting out of their own division when it’s all said and done.
Thanks for reading Part 3 of my 2021 Pre-Training Camp NFL Power Rankings. Stay tuned for Part 4.
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