2022 BMW Championship Picks, Odds, and Values

Greetings folks. We’re back again with another edition for our second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. We’ll be headed to The Wilmington County Club in the great state of Delaware for the BMW Championship. Believe it or not, this will be the first-ever PGA Tour event held in Delaware. Kind of crazy to think about.  We have a lot of unraveling to do for this week’s showdown before heading to East Lake for our final event of the season. Time to end the year with a bang and to keep cashing out like we have been the past two weeks.

Previous Week

Before hopping into the BMW Championship, how about the performance our guy Will Zalatoris put on last week in Memphis?  Finally breaking through and capturing the first elusive title of his career.

“WHAT ARE THEY GONNA SAY NOW!!!” Just special emotion out of Zalatoris after saving par on 18 in tournament regulation.

That was probably one of the craziest playoffs I have ever witnessed. It would be my disservice to not tip the spider Sepp Straka’s way for an unbelievable performance as well. From both draining clutch par saves on 18, to both dropping on eleven in the final playoff hole, and finally, Zalatoris sinking his bogey putt for the win. Just a special weekend all around and truly one for the ages.

I loved seeing all the folks tailing Zalatoris as one of my outright picks in my previous article. It had to happen for Willy Z. When it mattered most, he got the job done. Time to keep riding the momentum and having those account balances headed straight to the moon. There’s a ton to cover this week, so sit back, relax, and start to polish your knowledge on the course itself and what players must do to be successful in Wilmington.

Course/Tournament Breakdown

The BMW Championship was introduced in 2007, previously known as the Western Open. This is a no-cut event and will consist of the top 70 PGA Tour golfers in the PGA FedEx Cup Standings. Once this event concludes, the top 30 players in the standings will go on and advance to East Lake next week for the Tour Championship. So, a lot is at stake and a lot of elite golf is expected to be played for those who want to compete in the final event of the PGA Tour season.

The Wilmington County Club was established in 1901 and relocated in the 1950s when they brought on Robert Trent Jones to design the track. The place has two courses, the North and South Course. This week’s BMW Championship will be played on the South Course, but with a little bit of a twist.  I believe they are going to have a hybrid structure of the two, but most of the holes will predominantly be coming from the south track. This stunt should come with no surprise to the folks as altering yardages and mixing and matching holes within 36-hole tracks is prevalent.

Wilmington Country Club is a par 71 totaling 7,534 yards. The greens are massive. We’ll have water come into play on about four holes and there’s sand galore. If there’s one thing Robert Trent Jones loves, it’s to place as many bunkers as possible on his courses, fairways, and green-side. The rough will be four-inch blue grass with our greens and fairways both being bent grass. Unlike last week’s event where we saw Bermuda, the blue grass at Wilmington Country Club is much easier and predictable to play out of, placing less emphasis on off-the-tee play. Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying OTT won’t be important, it will be an advantage, but there will be much more emphasis on distance than accuracy.

The fairways at this place are very wide, so even if you miss you still may be on the fairway.  If you miss by a ton, you still may even have a shot at the green from the bluegrass.  The deciding factor this week is going to come down to who has that best 130-180 yard shot and who can putt / lag putt the best.  The greens average 8,100 square feet and offer high levels of gentle rises and dips in elevation.  As we stated prior, this is the first-ever PGA tournament held at The Wilmington Country Club, so you must think most of these players will be highly unfamiliar with these greens. I believe those players who do their due diligence, prepare the best, and have elite caddies for green readings will be in the best shape for a victory come Sunday.

It’s an easy but daunting recipe for success.  Stripe your short irons and avoid the three-putts.  The best approach and flatstick play will win us the dough this week folks.

Now, let’s make some money.

Outright Winner

John Rahm (+1400)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Talk about a course that sets up perfect for John Rahm. I think Rahm is going to cause damage this week, I really do. If you didn’t watch the first leg last week, it would be in your favor to know that Rahm played some unbelievable golf, and I’m all here for it. Rahm ranked third in total strokes gained and was beautiful OTT and in the BS (ball-striking) category. Everything was there for Rahm last week other than the flat stick, barely losing a stroke.

However, this does not worry me at all.  If we look back at the Memorial, he gained almost six strokes putting. Looking back at the US Open, he gained three and a half strokes putting. Statistically, Rahm does not putt the ball well on Bermuda, which we had last week in Memphis. Take a guess where he uses the flat stick the best. You guessed right. Bent grass. Rahm is elite on bent grass which is going to be the difference maker this week. Also, big congrats on the new kid too. I will be riding Rahm all day long and I am excited to see what the Spaniard has in store for us this week in Wilmington.

Collin Morikawa (+2000)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

We’re going right back at it with Collin Morikawa. As we stated prior, iron play and putting will be the catalyst for victory this week. I simply cannot lay off the best iron player in the world. He ranks third in strokes gained on approach and a very adequate T30 with the big stick. Last week was a rollercoaster ride for Morikawa. He would rattle off four birdies and then go on to double bogey back-to-back holes. If we can see the mistakes at a minimum for Morikawa, I think we are golden. We all know how elite Morikawa is with those 130–180-yard approach shots. However, the thing that will push Morikawa to a victory this week is not only hitting greens but being on the right quadrant of those greens for easy two putts.

You know how the old saying goes, “good things come to those who wait.”  If we can see Morikawa making easy pars, the birdies will be there all day long.  From what I saw last week, I am highly optimistic about what Morikawa is capable of accomplishing.

Cameron Young (+2500)

 Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

If Cam Young is going to get a victory this year, it’s going to be at Wilmington County Club. In his last nine starts, Young has gained over seven strokes in the ball striking category five times. Not to mention, he gained nine strokes in the BS category last week in Memphis. This was about half a stroke behind Zalatoris who finished first in that category and the tournament itself. Let that sink in. So where did Young go wrong? He lost about six strokes on the putting surface, which is very rare for him to do. This was probably his worst putting performance of his career.  You best believe the ROY is hungry for a bounce back.

If you combine the northeastern bent grass of Wilmington Country Club with the Scarborough, NY native, I think Young is going to be extra motivated for a title. I think this week is a great spot for him to achieve that. It would be special to see Young hoisting some hardware come Sunday evening.

Dark Horse: Cameron Davis (+6500)

At this value, I think Cameron Davis is a very interesting pick. He checks off all the boxes at this place. He’s long with the driver, a good approach player, and when the flatstick is working it’s working well. Where the downside comes into play is when Davis starts spraying it OTT.  Unlike last week when being in the fairway was vital, this week it is not as important.

Davis has finished T20 in all of his last five events dating back to the John Deere Classic, with two of those being T10 finishes. Not to mention, he plays bent grass better than most of the players on the PGA Tour. I am not saying Davis is going to win, but if he’s rolling, things can get scary. I wouldn’t want to lose out on an opportunity with value on Davis like this.  Pencil me in for a little sprinkle action on the Aussie.

Optimal DFS Lineup

Prices are courtesy of DraftKings. 

1. Tony Finau $9,700
2. Matt Fitzpatrick $9,500
3. Cameron Young $8,900
4. Joaquin Niemann $8,600
5. Taylor Moore $6,400
6. Andrew Putnam $6,200

Bag Parlay

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

John Rahm T10, Justin Thomas T20, Viktor Hovland T20 (+628)

FRL (First Round Leader)

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

1. Collin Morikawa (+2600)
2. JT Poston (+5000)
3. KH Lee (+8500)

Let’s be great folks.

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