Greetings folks! Welcome to another edition of PGA tour sports betting. If you found yourself scrolling google to get an inside scoop on all things golf and golf betting, you clicked the right link. Wednesday after Wednesday we deep dive into PGA tour betting. I go over tournament history, course breakdowns, player tendencies, and who I believe has the best shot at winning tournaments week in and week out.

Before we hop into this week’s action, I think it’s only right we tip the cap to Keegan Bradley on his win at the Zozo last week in Tokyo. For those following the program, good on you. Cashing out on Keegan felt tremendous. Just a special performance from the seasoned vet. With that being said, let’s keep the mojo rolling. Let’s keep our foot on the gas pedal. We have a lot to cover for the stacked field in South Carolina. Let’s rock folks.

CJ Cup History

We head back to the states this week for the CJ Cup where the PGA Tour is set to tee it up at Congaree Golf Club in Ridgeland, South Carolina. The CJ Cup was first introduced on the PGA Tour in 2017, where the tournament was held at Nine Bridges Golf Club in South Korea. However, due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions, the event was moved to the United States starting in 2020. Both the 2020 and 2021 CJ Cup was played in Las Vegas, just at different venues.

The tournament will change locations once again for this year’s showdown at Congaree Golf Club. For those who remember, the 2021 Palmetto Championship was played at this track where the South African native, Garrick Higgo was crowned champion at 11-under par. Like most years, the CJ Cup showcases some of golf’s finest stars. We will see world number one, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlory, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, and John Rahm all tee it up along with a core group of young stars on tour. Give or take, 15 out of the top 20 players on tour will participate this week.

Similar to last week in Tokyo, the CJ Cup will consist of 78 players and every player will play a full four rounds. This will be a no-cut event. I believe this tournament will be the best fall swing event yet. This track is a true test so we should see some elite golf being played down in The Palmetto State.

Let’s hop right into the course.

Congaree Golf Club

Congaree Golf Club was designed by Tom Fazio in 2017 and plays as a par 71 measuring about 7,685 yards. There is no true rough as the course consists of sandy areas scattered throughout. The fairways will be Bermuda-grass and the greens will play as championship-Bermuda running about 11 on the stimpmeter. Water hazards come into play on 13 holes.

As alluded to before, Congaree is a true test. The track plays firm and fast and missing the green can become very penal if a player struggles from around the green and in bunkers. There are 11 par fours, three par fives, and four very tough par threes with two of them measuring over 200 yards. The par fives are scoreable, but a lot to handle at the same time. They are some of the hardest on tour dating back to last year.

Key Stats

• Strokes gained off the tee (Driving Distance)
• Strokes gained on approach (150 Yards +)
• Strokes gained around the green (Sand Shots and Green Side Recovery)
• Strokes gained putting (Bermuda Grass)

In terms of off-the-tee, both driving distance and accuracy are important. However, I would give the edge to distance as the fairways at Congraree are massive and easy to hit. The trouble comes in with giant misses off the tee. If you miss heavy off the tee, you will find yourself in sandy waste areas which you want to avoid at all costs. I don’t believe this will be something too much to worry about as there is more than enough fairway to play with. I’ll be focusing on players who drive the ball long and are moderately accurate.

Like most weeks, approach play will be the difference. Given the long nature of this track, we are going to see most approach shots 150 yards and up.

Congaree is lined with short grass. Any course that has short grass around the green makes chipping that much harder. Not to mention, a plethora of challenging bunkers scattered green side as well. This place ranked in the top ten in strokes gained around the green difficulty. Additionally, expect the firm and fast conditions to play a role in approach shots rolling into the run-off areas where players are going to have to stick one tight to save par. I will be targeting elite chip shot players as well as elite sand save players.

Congaree Golf Club will feature large greens measuring about 6,150 square feet on average. Lag-putting will be very important given the variety of long-iron shots the track asks for. Unlike most weeks, this will not be a birdie fest. Players must judge speed to a tee and consistently make five to ten-footers for par.

I compare this place a little bit to St. Andrews where the Open Championship is held. Heavy emphasis on distance off the tee, being able to play around the green, and reading speed and lines right to deliver elite lag putts.

Here are my outright picks for the 2022 CJ Cup:

Outright Card:

Justin Thomas +1600 (Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook)

• Plays some of his best golf during the fall swing on the PGA Tour
• Has gained strokes around the green in nine of his last ten events
• Ranks in the top 20 vs the field in driving distance
• Ranks in the top 20 vs the field in approach shots 175 yards and above
• Due time for JT since his last two wins at the PGA Championship this past year and The Players in 2021

Shane Lowry +2200

• Consistent metrics across the board and is starting to find something with the flat stick after struggling at the latter end of last season
• Coming off a first-place finish at the BMW PGA Championship (DP World Tour Event) – Rory and Rahm compete in that tournament
• Approach and ball-striking numbers have been stellar
• Has gained strokes via the ball-striking category in 19 out of his last 20 starts
• One of the best around-the-green players in this field – has gained strokes around the green 9 out of his last ten starts
• Lowry is an elite golfer who can win on any given Sunday
• Look for Lowry to be fighting for a CJ Cup title

Viktor Hovland +2800

• Hovland is coming off a great performance at the Zozo finishing T5
• The two weeks prior he has a T5 at the BMW PGA Championship and a T34 at the Italian Open (Euro Tour)
• Approach and ball-striking numbers have been stellar, gaining five in the last six in those categories
• One of the best players in this field in terms of shots gained approach from 175 plus yards out – an important metric given the long par threes, fours, and fives
• Has gained strokes around the green in four out of his last six starts – a metric in which he has struggled in the past
• There is no doubt the Norwegian native has been playing some great golf – like the value here on Hovland

Value Play:

Aaron Wise +4500

Long-Shot Play:

Cameron Davis +7000

Let’s be great folks

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