Last season was the breakout year for running backs such as Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler. Their fantastic 2021 seasons boosted them into my top two rankings for the upcoming season. Usually, the first round of fantasy drafts is dominated by running backs, and personally, I find it difficult to pass on one early on. Most of these running backs will be gone in drafts by the time the middle of the second round comes.
1. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
This is an obvious one for me as Taylor broke out in a major way last season. He rushed for 1,811 yards on 332 attempts and scored 18 touchdowns. He added 40 receptions on 51 targets, catching two touchdowns. Taylor is a workhorse back and should be the top draft pick in every draft this coming season.
The Colts let Carson Wentz go and added veteran quarterback Matt Ryan who saw success with running backs such as Devonta Freeman and Todd Gurley who put up nine touchdowns in 2020. The Colts also have Nyheim Hines to act as the pass-catching back, but he is not a threat to Taylor’s total. The Colts also saw Marlon Mack leave this offseason freeing up his 28 attempts. Don’t get cute, Taylor is the obvious RB1 overall for 2022.
2. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
A personal favorite draft selection of mine last season, Ekeler broke out in a big way. He rushed 206 times for 911 yards, scoring 12 touchdowns. He added 70 receptions on 94 targets. 94 targets is extremely heavy volume for a back, basically giving him wide receiver-type targets. With a young, elite quarterback in Justin Herbert, this offense is in for a ton of passing again next year, and Ekeler will benefit from this once again.
The Chargers recently drafted Isaiah Spiller 123rd overall who is expected to be the complementary back. Ekeler has been injury-prone, but he managed to play 16 games last season and played through injuries. I’m drafting him in the top-three in all formats this season without hesitation.
3. Derrick Henry, Tennesee Titans
Henry was on pace last season to have a monster season, as he was on his pace for an insane 2,000 rushing yards. Unfortunately, he suffered a foot injury, limiting him to eight games in the regular season. In those games, he rushed for 937 yards on 219 attempts and scored 10 touchdowns. Just to give perspective, Ekeler had 206 carries in 16 games. He also caught 18 receptions on 20 targets for 154 yards. On a 17-game season, that is on pace for over 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns. He would be the top-ranked running back with those numbers.
In the divisional round, Henry saw 20 rushing attempts, and clearly, the Titans offense goes through him. This offseason, the Titans traded AJ Brown to the Eagles and drafted Treylon Burks. They also drafted Hassan Haskins to back up Henry. Draft Henry with absolute confidence this season if you have a top-five pick.
4. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Harris is my fourth-ranked running back for the 2022 season. Reports this off-season show he weighed in at 244 pounds from 232 last season. Harris disputed that and said he was 240 pounds as a rookie. Either way, I wouldn’t be concerned. With Pittsburgh drafting Kenny Pickett and signing Mitch Trubisky, I expect them to rely on the run game a lot more this season.
Last year in his rookie season, Harris rushed for 1,200 yards on 307 attempts and caught 74 passes on 94 targets for 467 yards and three touchdowns. Trubisky isn’t a typical check-down quarterback, but I wouldn’t put much stock in that. Harris should be drafted right now and should be right around the top five picks. Between the obvious rushing workload and the additional pass-catching work, Harris is locked in here at number four.
5. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
McCaffrey comes in as my RB5, and it was close with Dalvin Cook. When McCaffrey was healthy, the Panthers looked like a functioning offense, and people were calling the Sam Darnold trade a win for the Panthers. Once he was hurt, the offense struggled. McCaffrey rushed for 442 yards on 99 attempts and a touchdown. He also caught 37 passes on 41 attempts for 343 yards and a touchdown. This was all in just seven games.
Reports say McCaffrey has not suffered from any setbacks this off-season. If I had a top-10 pick in any format, I would feel comfortable taking him as his ceiling is the RB1 overall. I’d have to imagine the Panthers have somewhat learned their lesson with him and will scale his workload back some, but his upside is still inevitably there. The injury risk is also there, but this is a pick that could be a league winner inside the top 10.
6. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Cook comes in as my RB6 for the 2022 season. Cook only played 13 games last year, and his injury risk is there, but the ceiling is an elite RB1 when healthy. Last season, Cook rushed 249 times for 1,159 yards and six touchdowns. He added 34 receptions on 49 targets for 224 yards. Cook dislocated his shoulder last season but returned at the end of the season.
It would be smart to draft Alexander Mattison as the backup at some point in your draft in the event Cook misses any time. I would be comfortable taking Cook right inside the top 10 of any draft, regardless of format.
7. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
I actually would consider putting Mixon above Cook here, but you can go either way. Mixon is coming off a great season where he carried the ball 292 times for 1,205 yards and 13 touchdowns. He added 42 receptions on 48 targets for 314 yards and three more touchdowns. The Bengals’ offensive line was ranked in the bottom half of the league, and Mixon was still able to have a breakout season.
This offseason, the Bengals added La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras in free agency. Expect the line to be much better this season, which will benefit Mixon greatly. Mixon likely should be going in drafts towards the end of the first and is a perfect pick at the 10 or 12 turn, depending on the size of your leagues.
8. D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
If there is any running back who can be the dark horse for RB1 this season, I think Swift can be that guy. Last season, Swift only played in 13 games but carried the ball 151 times for 617 yards and five touchdowns. He added in 62 receptions on 78 targets for 452 yards and two more touchdowns.
While a lot of the attention is on the pass catchers between TJ Hockenson, rookie Jameson Williams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, Swift is primed for a breakout. Jamaal Williams is his only threat to touches, but Swift is the true RB1 here. The injury risk is a concern, but the upside is absolutely there. The end of the 1st round is about right Swift this year.
9. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady is back in Tampa Bay and Fournette had a very good season last year. People are going to fade him because of out-of-shape OTA news, and the arrival of rookie pass-catcher Rachaad White, but I am all in on buying any sort of dip. Last year, Fournette played in 14 games, carrying the ball 180 times for 812 yards and eight touchdowns. He added in 69 receptions on 84 targets for 454 yards and two more touchdowns in the passing game.
With Brady back and Ronald Jones now with the Chiefs, I would expect Fournette to equal, if not do better than his 2021 season. He is an early 2nd round pick for me, and an ideal running back to target if you grab a wide receiver or elite tight end in the 1st round. You should be comfortable with Fournette as your team’s RB1 this year.
10. Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Rounding out the top 10 is the second-year talented running back in Denver, Javonte Williams. With a massive upgrade at the quarterback position this off-season, Russell Wilson should help Williams out a ton. Melvin Gordon re-signed in Denver, which is a hit to William’s value and may slow down the hype a bit, but I think he truly breaks out this season. Last season he played all 17 games, carrying 203 times for 903 yards and four touchdowns. He added in 43 receptions on 53 targets for 316 yards and three touchdowns.
Gordon equaled the number of carries he saw with Williams at 203 carries, hence the panic among fantasy players. Right now, Williams is a late first-round pick, early second, and has top-five potential if Gordon were to miss any time.
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