2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks, Odds, and Values

Greetings folks.  Back again for the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.  We’ll be headed to TPC Southwind in the great city of Memphis, Tennessee for the FedEx St Jude Championship.  Like last year, this year will consist of 3 playoff events – the St Jude this week, the BMW Championship next week, and finally the Tour Championship at East Lake the following week.  A very exciting time finishing out our PGA Tour season before heading into the shortest off-season in all of sports.  Time to end the year on a high note and have those checking accounts soaring.

Previous Week

Before hopping into the St Jude Championship, how about a major shoutout to our guy Tom Kim for coming out victorious this past weekend at the Wyndham Championship? Talk about a young man who put on an absolute clinic in all tournament long despite opening his Thursday round with a quad-bogey.  Special stuff out of Kim finishing 20-under with an impressive 61 to finish his final round; not to mention shooting a 27 (eight-under) front nine in that final round.

Loved seeing all the folks tailing him as my featured dark horse in my previous article.  Let’s keep that mojo going, let’s keep those account balances trending in the north direction because there is a ton of dough to be made this week.  We have a lot to cover for the stacked field we got on tap, so sit back, relax, and start to lock in for our first playoff event of the year.

Course / Tournament Breakdown

TPC Southwind is a par 70 and was designed by Ron Prichard in 1987 before the PGA intruded in 2004 to make some alterations. There is water galore here.  Over 50% of the holes at Southwind contain water, so you’re going to want to stay out of the drink by any means necessary.

The fairways are made up of zoysia grass, which is known for its sturdiness and thick mat-like texture where the golf ball sits up real cleanly.  The rough will be two and a half inches of Bermuda grass, which can be highly detrimental if you’re not hitting fairways.

There is a huge difference playing out of the rough vs fairway at Southwind.  One is high levels of unpredictability in the rough where controlling spin can be a tough task.  The track will play very firm and fast given the extremely dry conditions in Memphis this year.

I believe we will see the winner anywhere from 13 to 15 under par.  The recipe is simple but quite daunting at the same time.  You are going to have to be long and straight OTT playing out the fairway, having awareness of correct pin positions, and having some elite ball-striking ability.  There’s a reason why most of the top dogs usually win at this place.

Tournament History

To gain some more perspective, I believe it’s important to know the history of Southwind and the recent winners.  This tournament has been held in Memphis, TN since 1958, first coming over to TPC Southwind in 1989.  Beginning in 2019, FedEx took over sponsorship of the WGC (World Golf Championship) Invitational; however, starting this year, the WGC aspect had been dropped, eventually turning the tournament into the first FedEx Cup Playoff Event.

The field this week will be heavily stacked with all your household-named players minus the LIV guys.  Former winners Abe Ancer, won last year at 16-under in a playoff over Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama.  In 2020, Justin Thomas won at 13-under.  Brooks Koepka won in 2019 at 16-under, Dustin Johnson in 2018, and Daniel Berger back-to-back in 2016-17.

Oddly enough, once this tournament turned into a WGC event and the field got more elite, the outright odds of winners went a little bit like this: Dustin Johnson 7 to 1, Brooks Koepka 11 to 1, Justin Thomas 12 to 1, and Abe Ancer 55 to 1.  Three out of four years with the field more stacked, the top betting favorite has usually come out victorious.

When you think of TPC Southwind, what comes to mind?  That answer is none other than ball striking.  To be successful at Southwind, the ball striking must be firing on all cylinders.  Two main stats highly correlated to success here are SGA (strokes gained approach) and SG OTT (strokes gained off the tee).

In addition, TPC Southwind calls for a big-time T2G (Tee to Green) test.  Strokes gained tee to green stem from the per round average of strokes the golfer was better or worse than the field on average keeping the course and event constant, excluding strokes gained with the flat stick.

It plays into 3 categories: Off the Tee, approach-the-green, and around-the-green.  The sum of these three stats equates to strokes gained T2G.  You don’t always need to be dialed with the flat stick here; in fact, when Justin Thomas won in 2020, he lost strokes to the field on the putting surface.  Ultimately, the top ball strikers will be the ones to separate themselves from the rest of the pack and use that to their advantage come this weekend.

Picks

After further thinking and recent feedback from my last article, I am going to have 4 aspects of the betting side of things: Four Outright Plays, an Optimal DFS Lineup, a Bag Parlay that will consist of players finishing positions (max 4 player parlay), and a few FRL plays.  It came down to what makes the most sense to put out there – golf bettors tend to stick with outright plays, DFS lineups, a nice juicy parlay that can earn you some serious returns, plus the first-round leader bet.

With that being cleared up, let’s get to the good stuff.  We’ll go ahead and start with my outright plays for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Outright Winner

Patrick Cantlay (+1400)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Amid what Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, and Xander Schauffele have been doing, I feel like way too many folks are sleeping on Patrick Cantlay.  If we go back to his last 9 starts, other than a cut at the PGA Championship, Cantlay’s worst finish was a T13 at the Travelers Championship.  Cantlay could not be more dialed in right now with his game.  He has gained strokes in both the BS (ball striking) and T2G (tee-to-green) categories just under 90% of the time out of those last 9.

Recently at the Rocket Mortgage, Cantlay gained close to 8 strokes striking the ball and 9 strokes from the tee to green finishing T2 – falling short to the scorching hot Tony Finau.  In the last 32 rounds, Cantlay ranks fourth is total strokes gained vs the field at 2.15.

When all the pieces start clicking for Cantlay, he can be a serious problem.  Not to mention, we know what Cantlay did last year during the FedEx Cup Playoffs – two first-place finishes at the BMW and Tour Championship.  Maybe Cantlay’s got a special place in his heart for late summer golf.  Excited to see what this week holds for the 30-year-old out of Long Beach, CA.

Will Zalatoris (+2200)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Asked the same question last week.  What are we going to do with Will Zalatoris?  When will he capture his first win?  I don’t think there is another person who wants to see Zalatoris capture that first elusive title other than yours truly.  Although every week can be the week for Willy Z, I think this one plays the most in his favor.  As I have stated prior, Southwind rewards ball striking.

Zalatoris strikes the ball extremely long and straight and has some of the best irons and wedges on tour.  He played Southwind last year and finished T8, no surprise there.  We all know the flaw with Willy Z right now is the flatstick, but as we said, guys have won losing strokes on the putting surface at this place.  If Will is launching the ball OTT, finding fairways, and striping his irons and wedges, he can putt average at best and win this thing.  I got Zalatoris to be a tough guy to beat this week.

Collin Morikawa (+3000)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

There’s no other way to put it.  I must ride with the best iron player in this field.  Despite not playing elite golf like we usually see from Morikawa; this is a great spot for him.  With off-the-tee and approach play being difference makers, he checks the boxes.  Also, have we ever seen these outrageous odds from Collin at 30 to 1?  I’ll tell you when we have…last year, at TPC Harding for the PGA Championship.

Morikawa went on to win that tournament capturing his second major.  I am confident Morikawa will be in the mix come moving day, and to be quite honest, that’s really all you have to do in PGA tournaments.  Simply give yourself a chance to win on Sunday.  At this value, Morikawa is a big-time outright play for me this weekend.

Joaquin Niemann (+5000)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Things can get scary if we have the flat stick this weekend for Joaquin Niemann.  He gains a plethora of strokes OTT and on Approach.  Additionally, his ball striking is stellar.  He has gained close to 4 strokes on the field in his last 14 events in that category.

I believe the young and physically fit golfers will have the edge at Southwind.  Having to deal with this crazy Memphis heat for 4 rounds can do a number on a good amount of the other players in the field.  If Niemann shows up with the putter, he’ll have a chance to capture his first FedEx Playoff win.

Optimal DFS Lineup

Prices are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

1. Scottie Scheffler $10,800
2. Sam Burns $8,600
3. Joaquin Niemann $8,100
4. Tom Kim $8,000
5. Aaron Wise $7,700
6. Callum Tarren $6,600

Bag Parlay

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Willy Z T10, Scottie Scheffler T20, Scott Stallings T30 (+1515)

FRL (First Round Leader)

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

1. Tony Finau (+3400)
2. Aaron Wise (+6000)
3. Taylor Pendrith (+6500)

Let’s be great folks.

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