2022 Fortinet Championship Picks, Odds, and Value

Greetings folks!  Boy does it feel good to be back.   Welcome to the 2022-2023 PGA Tour season.  If you are new here, we do all things golf.  Course breakdowns, keys to success, player tendencies, betting picks, daily fantasy.  The whole nine yards.  After coming off last season on an absolute heater, we are hungry for more bags to be cashed.  If you have a passion for the game of golf and have an addiction to betting on the game of golf you’ve come to the right spot.  Without further ado, please sit back, relax, and start to lock in on how you can become the most informed for our first PGA Tour Event of the season.  Some may call it the Max Homa Invitational.  Welcome to the Fortinet Championship folks.

Course Breakdown / Keys To Success

Cheers from wine country. We’ll be headed out west this week to the Silverado Resort and Spa North Course in sunny Napa, CA to kick off the first event of the year.  This track was designed by Robert Trent Jones / Johnny Miller (2011) and plays as a Par 72 at about 7,200 yards.  We’ll have a hybrid structure on the carpet this week with both poa and bent grass.  Hazards are minimal at Silverado.  Not to mention, the gorgeous par three 11th over water.  The drink will come into play on two holes and there are about 50 bunkers scattered throughout the track.

The top keys for success at Silverado are as follows: shots gained ball striking (BS), shots gained approach (SGA) with an emphasis in the rough, shots gained tee to green and non-par four scoring.  Given the nature of the narrow fairways here at Silverado, elite approach play from honestly anywhere on the course can be the difference.  Fairways are very challenging to hit, hence the heavy prominence on the second shot.  Don’t get me wrong, if you’re hitting the big stick accurately, it’s going to pay dividends, but driving the ball long and in the rough as opposed to shorter and more accurate can actually put in you a better spot for success.

Driving the ball long, elite ball striking from about 80-120 yards out, and smooth putting will get you in the mix come Sunday.  Since the tournament moved to Silverado in the 2015 season, we usually see a drive, chip, and putt contest out there.  It’s simple.  Look to get some serious distance with the big stick without really caring where it ends up, leave yourself a short wedge shot to the green, and try to make as many birdies as you can.

One facet this week that I think can be interesting is par three and five scoring.  The par threes here make the place a little harder, so getting away with an average score of par can be a huge plus.  However, the par fives have got to be taken advantage of.  All the par fives at Silverado are known to be very easy, all measuring under 600 yards.  If players can execute driving distance, eagle opportunities will come knocking.  Don’t get me wrong, par four scoring is obviously important, but I see them getting eaten up all tournament long.

I think we should have a fun one this week in Napa.  We’ll have 50 new Korn Ferry Tour players so I am very intrigued to see what they have in store for us.  Big season ahead with a ton of dough to be made during this fall season.  Articles firing, locks firing, course breakdowns firing.  It’s time to be special.

Now for the main event.  Let’s make some money folks.

Outright Winner:

Cameron Davis +2200

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Silverado suits up well for Cam Davis. Raking in strokes across the board, specifically in the distance category, Silverado is the track for the Aussie to do some serious damage.  In his last six events, Davis finished T8, 6^th, T16, T14, T13, and T35 ending his season at the BMW Championship.  What makes me confident with Davis is the constant improvement he displays day in and day out.  Davis is a completely different player than he was back in 2019-20 and I believe he will be right back where he left off last season. Against the field this week, Davis gains about one and a half total stokes and is for sure top ten in driving distance.  He rakes in shots gained approach and tee to green as well.  I am surprised this is the number Davis is penciled in at to be quite honest.  You best believe we’re smashing the Cam Davis outright all day long.  Very excited to see what the 27-year-old out of Sydney has in store out west this week.

Taylor Pendrith +3000

When will it be Pendrith’s time?  Very good chance to see him hoisting hardware this week.   After dealing with injuries last year, Pendrith has showcased some pretty elite golf as of late.  To put it into perspective, last season, Pendrith gained more than two strokes per round almost 50% of the time.  Like Cam Davis, in his last 24 rounds, Pendrith gains about one and a half strokes against the field.  Pendrith has really found his groove.  Not to mention, this place sets up great for him given his long ball ability and tee-to-green prowess.  After being picked to play against the USA in the president’s cup next week, you have got to believe Pendrith will have something to prove.  Love the nice value here as well.  If you take a peek at all other sports books, they have TP closer to 25 to 1.  The 31-year-old out of Canada is one of my bigger plays this week in Napa.

Emiliano Grillo +4000

It can get very interesting with Grillo here in Napa. The million-dollar question though.  How will Grillo perform with the flat stick?  If Grillo can show signs of the flat stick firing early, he can very well be right there come Sunday.  And that’s all we could ever ask for.  Grillo has shown signs with the flat stick as of late which makes me even a bigger believer.  He’s been gaining strokes on the putting surface in his last five consecutive starts.  In case you forgot, Grillo has two T2 finishes this year both at the 3M and John Deere.  One which he was leading a majority of the weekend.  His game is there and has been there at this tournament specifically.  Grillo captured a victory at Silverado North back in 2015 when this tournament was called the Frys.com Open.  He won with a birdie on the second playoff hole against Kevin Na.  To see the flat stick finally coming around, solid play as of late, and having a successful past at this track has me optimistic with Grillo.  Would be very surprised if the 29-year-old out of Argentina is not in the mix come Sunday.

Optimal DFS Lineup:

Prices are Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

1. Sahith Theegala – $10,000
2. Troy Merritt – $8,700
3. Justin Suhn – $8,200
4. David Lipsky – $7,400
5. Callum Tarren – $7,200
6. Adam Svensson – $7,200

First Round Leader:

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

1. Chez Reavie +5500
2. Trey Mullinax +5500
3. Mark Hubbard +6000

Let’s be great folks.