2022 NFL Free Picks: Week 4 Best Bets and Betting Tips
Welcome back everyone, week four is here and we are back for our best bets. Before we begin, I would like to say that my sincere thoughts and prayers are with all the victims of Hurricane Ian. It truly was a devastating storm causing tons of damage and some loss of life.
I live on the east coast of Florida but thankfully the worst of the storm blew north of us. This is why we are blessed to have a sport like football to help us take our minds off the craziness that life brings.
Last week was very fruitful as we went 6-0 on sides and 2-1 on totals. When I’m hitting totals you know things are going good. That brings our overall record for the year to 15-11, 13-6 on sides, and 2-5 on totals. You can track all of my selections and records here on Tallysight.
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pick: Jets +3.5
If you have been listening to the Faceoff pod this year, you know that I believe in Zach Wilson and his talents. After three weeks of Joe Flacco, the Jets will get their young starter back. The Jets may not win this game, but I think they can stay within the number here.
Mitchell Trubisky looks like the same old Mitch we all have seen with the Bears and we could see rookie Kenny Pickett sooner than later. Let’s see how Wilson does with all this new talent the Jets acquired in his first week back, but I think the Jets can at least grab the cover.
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Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
The Pick: Dallas -3
Cooper Rush has filled in better than expected for Dak Prescott completing 62% of his passes and throwing for 514 yards and two touchdowns through 2.5 games. Dallas played some good football last Monday night against the Giants as their defense was ferocious and they looked well prepared. On the other hand, the Commanders fell back to earth offensively, scoring 8 points against the Eagles after averaging 27.5 points in their first two games.
The Cowboys’ passing game looks fluid at the moment and they will get a boost getting Michael Gallup back in the lineup this week. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott also looked good running the ball. Their defense is likely going to create havoc for Carson Wentz and I expect a few turnovers from Wentz in this game. Three isn’t much to ask for here, take Dallas.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
The Pick: Seattle +3.5
Interestingly enough the Seahawks are passing and playing more uptempo than when they had Russell Wilson. Gino Smith is playing Ok enough for me to trust him at this point. The weapons are certainly there with Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Rashaad Penny who is capable of breaking off some big runs.
This is a good matchup for the Seattle offense against a Lions defense allowing 31 points per game. The Lions will not have D’Andre Swift or Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff will not have his crutches and I think Seattle can win this game outright.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
The Pick: Titans +3.5
The Colts beat the Chiefs last week, but really didn’t play that well and haven’t played well all season. The Titans got their first win last week beating the Raiders at home. The Titans swept the Colts last season, these teams are very similar and I just don’t see why the Colts are giving 3.5 points in this game.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
The Pick: Texans +5.5
I’m not crazy about Lovie Smith as a Head Coach, but one thing he can do is coach defense. The Texans have only allowed 20 points per game this season and now face a Chargers team with a banged-up Justin Herbert still missing Keenan Allen on offense. Davis Mills hasn’t taken a leap in his 2nd season but he has been serviceable. I like the Texans with the points and I may even throw a little something down on the money line +205.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
The Pick: Cardinals +1
This game is essentially a fade on Baker Mayfield and Matt Rhule. Some reports this week have said Rhule has, “Lost the locker room.” Either way, Rhule has not been good in Carolina and neither has Baker Mayfield. D.J. Moore visibly looked frustrated when being asked by reporters about his connection with Mayfield. I’m usually not a Cardinals backer but getting points vs Carolina makes sense.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Pick: Denver +2.5
Russell Wilson‘s commercials and promos are completely out of control at this point, and maybe that’s spilling over into their poor offensive play. However, we did see Russ get a little dangerous on that last drive against the 49ers using his legs more and completing the drive for a TD and ultimately the win against the 49ers.
The Raiders have allowed 26 points per game and this should be a game for Wilson and the Broncos offense to have a breakout game of sorts. This is an absolute must-win for the Raiders at 0-3, but this is a rough matchup for Derek Carr against a stout Denver defense allowing just 12 points per game! Buy the hook to 3 points if you can.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Pick: Bucs -1
Tampa Bay and Tom Brady will get Mike Evans back this week and that will certainly give a boost to this offense that struggled to score last week against Green Bay. Newly acquired Russell Gage finally got going last week connecting with Brady for 12 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown.
Brady should pick up the pace here as he gets a little more comfortable adjusting to life without Rob Gronkowski and Chris Godwin. The Chiefs struggled offensively last week against the Colts and I think they will struggle again on Sunday Night Football against this Bucs defense allowing just 9 points per game.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
The Pick: Rams +1.5
This is a rematch of the NFC Championship game from last year when the Rams won 20-17. Both offenses haven’t looked up to par so far this year, but Jimmy Garropolo looked extremely off last week against Denver, even pulling the ultimate donkey move and stepping out of bounds in his own endzone.
It doesn’t get any easier against Aaron Donald and the Rams defense this week without his best offensive lineman Trent Williams, who is out with a high ankle sprain.
Thanks for reading, if you have any questions you can contact me on Twitter @FantasySavvy.
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