2022 Sanderson Farms Championship Picks, Odds, and Values

Now that the Presidents Cup is through, and the US team captured yet another victory, we are back on schedule with our full stoke, full-field PGA Tour season.  We’ll be headed down south this week to Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship.  Hopefully, after quite the predictable US victory last week at Quail Hollow, there is house money to be played with for this week’s showdown in Jackson.  If you are new to the program, we lay it all out there to put money in your pockets.  I go through course breakdowns, player tendencies, and shots gained metrics to formulate players I believe have the best shot of winning each tournament week in and week out.  Without further ado, let’s get right into the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship Picks, Odds, and Values.

Tournament History

The Sanderson Farms Championship has been held annually on the PGA Tour since 1968.  It’s been hosted at several courses over the years until moving to the County Club of Jackson early in the 2015 season.  In 2019, this tournament was converted from an alternate event to a full-status event with more FedEx cup points at stake plus a trip to the Masters for the tournament champ.  This is not a top-heavy tournament by any means, but I will say the field has gotten much stronger over the years.

Sam Burns will be back to defend his title amongst many young talented players that we should see high up on the odds board.  Believe it or not, plenty of long-shots have won this thing in the past.  Looking back at the last five years, Sergio won it at 70 to 1, Munoz at 66 to 1, Cam Champ at 66 to 1, and even Ryan Armor at 125 to 1 in 2017.  This course caters to all different types of players.  There is not a clear-cut stat that puts one golfer over the other.  In my opinion, whoever is heavily dialed in with the flat stick for four rounds should come out victorious.

Course Breakdown

The Country Club of Jackson is a par 72 measuring about 7,400 yards.  It was re-designed by John Fought in 2008 with water hazards coming into play on 5 holes.  This track is Bermuda grass from top to bottom with the rough being a blend of Bermuda and zoysia.  The green sizes are about 6,200 square feet on average running 11.5 to 12 on the stimpmeter.  The stimpmeter is a device used to measure the speed of the putting green on a golf course.  To put it into perspective, if the stimp shows a 7, that dictates a slow putting surface.  If this stimp shows anywhere from 11 to 13 it’s considered fast.  Unless Hurricane Ian decides to make a pit stop in Jackson, look out for these greens to be running fast all week.

The Country Club of Jackson is further than you think with fairways being some of the narrowest on tour.  The track is straight as an arrow with minimal error for wayward driving.   In terms of off-the-tee metrics, I do not see an advantageous edge with being long as opposed to accurate or vice versa.  We saw Cameron Champ back in 2019 win this thing at 21 under who drove the ball on average about 330 yards all tournament long.

On the other hand, in 2017, we saw Ryan Armour win at 19 under who drove the ball on average about 270 yards with a lot more emphasis on accuracy and hitting fairways.  If I were to side with one, I would most likely lean towards distance given the fact that this place puts a ton of emphasis on the approach shot.  Longer off the tee calls for shorter irons enabling players to hit more accurate approach shots.

Ball striking, approach play, par 5 scoring, and Bermuda putting will be the difference this week at the Country Club of Jackson.  Given the large greens at this track, it should be no surprise that the strokes gained approach metric is a vital stat to success here.  Being able to hit your second shot on the correct quadrant of these greens based on pin locations will play a huge factor in the types of birdie looks players are leaving themselves.  Ultimately, it’s going to come down to how many eight to ten-footers a player is consistently making throughout the four rounds in Jackson.

Lastly, I feel like a broken record saying this, but please do not sleep on par five scoring.  The four par fives at this place are where a player can truly separate themselves from the pack.  They are some of the easiest holes on the course.  Making sure birdies are made can play a major difference in where someone finds themselves on the leaderboard come Sunday.

Now, let’s go make some money.  Here are my picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship:

Outright Winner

Sahith Theegala +2000

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

After coming off last season on a high note and finishing T6 at the Fortinet, Theegala has been playing some solid golf.  The main question this week is what form of Theegala are we getting?  There’s no denying that Theegala is one of the most volatile players on tour.  In his last 10 starts, he has gained strokes on approach pretty much every other tournament.  What makes me optimistic going into this week is his ability with the flat stick.  He has gained at least two and a half strokes in four out of his last five events with the putter, two of them being PGA playoff events.  Not to mention, he finished T8 last year at this tournament finishing 19 under, just three shots off the winner.

Theegala should already have a few tournament wins under his belt if a couple of things went his way, looking back at both the Waste Management and Travelers and I really like his spot this week. Theegala at 20 to 1? I will take those odds all day long. Look for the 24-year-old out of Orange, California to do some damage this week.  Especially on the putting surface.

Davis Riley +3500

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

When will the time come for Davis Riley?  He grew up minutes down the road from the Country Club of Jackson and has won several high school events here.  After a missed cut at the Fortinet, I expect Riley to have a big-time bounce-back week in Jackson.  He ranks in the top 25 vs the field in strokes gained off the tee on long courses, strokes gained approach, and strokes gained tee to green on bermuda courses.

Riley’s got a nice feel for this track and believe this place suits up really nicely for his game.  Even though Riley did not finish last season the way he wanted to, I feel his comfort level at this place can propel him to a victory.  Riley is a young player who has a proven track record he can compete at a high level on the PGA Tour. Given the fact that this is pretty much a home game for Riley at a place he knows probably better than anyone in the field, I will take my chances at these odds. Excited to see how the Mississippi native comes to play this week in his hometown.

Gary Woodland +6000

Odds are courtesy of FOXBet Sportsbook

When I see this number next to a guy like Gary Woodland’s name I can’t help but feel puzzled.  This type of value reminds me of what we had with Sergio back in 2021 at this same tournament, where he was tagged at 70 to 1 and ended up winning the thing.  After coming off a mediocre finish two weeks ago at the Fortinet, you can only help but look at how well Woodland was on approach.  He gained almost five strokes in that category which was one of his best weeks dating back to the middle of last year.

Are we finally finding something special with Woodland?  Woodland is an elite player on bermudagrass and drives the ball extremely well on long and straight tracks.  If the wedges and irons can stay dialed and he can get in a serious groove on the putting surface I don’t see why Woodland can’t be in the mix come Sunday.  The last thing you want to do is sleep on a savvy vet like Woodland.  Not to mention, a previous United States Open Champion.

Long Shot Plays (Sprinkle)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Mark Hubbard +8000

Davis Thompson +8000

DFS Plays

Sam Burns $10,600

Mark Hubbard $7,700

Davis Riley $9,200

Robby Shelton $7,200

Davis Thompson $7,400

Gary Woodland $7,9000

Let’s be great folks.

Already on DraftKings? No problem. Get the best odds with one of our other Sportsbook Partners.

All of our exclusive Sportsbooks partners can be found here!

Sign up for PrizePicks with the promo code FACEOFF for a 100% match up to $100!

Sports Betting Home

DFS Home

Free NFL Picks

Player Prop Bets