2022 Zozo Championship – Expert Picks and Predictions

Greetings folks. The PGA Tour heads internally this week as the Zozo Championship is set to be held at Accordia Golf Narashino County Club in the Greater Tokyo Area. It’s the fourth installment of this event. Tiger Woods captured a victory in the inaugural tournament back in 2019, and the native himself, Hideki Matsuyama is coming in as the defending champ. This week will showcase a bunch of the top names in golf. Xander Schaufelle is the best player in this field and will be the favorite to win. Young studs: Cameron Young, Tom Kim, and Sungjae Im will also be in the field looking to keep their stride in the right direction.

Rightfully so, Shaufelle is the clear-cut favorite at +800 (per the latest DK odds). Not far behind him is Im (+900), Kim, who captured his second victory last week (+1400), Matsuyama (+1400), Young (+1600), and Viktor Hovland priced at +1800. Unlike the last few weeks, this will be a no-cut event. Four rounds for every player in the field no matter how they play. We’ll also see some of the elite players on the Japanese Tour since this tournament is co-sanctioned with the Japan Golf Tour Organization.

Before we get into it, I think it’s important to note that this event will start Wednesday night for the folks residing in America given the time difference in Japan. Make sure you are getting your picks and lineups in before the first group tees off around 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday. Should be a fun one in Tokyo. Golf through the night you say? Couldn’t think of anything better.

Here we go, folks. Welcome to the Pacific Northwest.

The Golf Course – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club

Accordia Golf Narashini Country Club is a par 70 measuring about 7,050 yards. The course is a bit unorthodox. It has five par threes, only three par fives, and a mix of ten par fours that are either extremely long or extremely short. Oddly enough, every hole will consist of two greens, an A Green and a B Green. If your ball lands on the wrong green, you can take a free drop and chip from there. This is prevalent on tracks in Japan given the large amounts of foot traffic a green takes on the regular. Japanese golf courses are maintained like no other, so look out for this course to be in pristine condition.

The greens will be bent-grass running 10.5 on the stimp, which is slightly slower than the PGA Tour average. In terms of off-the-tee metrics, the track favors being in the fairway more times than not. However, a better metric to look at in this category is driving percentage. Driving percentage measures the number of fairways hit, plus the number of greens or fringes in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway, divided by the number of par fours and fives played. In plain terms, did you give yourself a legit chance at birdie?

Approach play is going to be the difference this week, and it’s going to come in all forms.  125-yard shots, 150-yard shots, 175-yard shots, 200-yard shots, the whole arsenal. Hit the driver well, keep the ball tight on the fairway (being long is just a plus), and dial it in with the irons to get some serious birdie looks. The last thing you want to do is play green side and find yourself trying to go up and down from five feet for par. This place has a low green in regulation percentage for a reason.  The irons must be dialed in all week long.

Collin Morikawa, who will be playing this week, expressed how vital hitting the fairway is at this track. I am going to target players who hit the driver accurately/moderately long, who are elite ball-strikers, and those who can get scorching hot with the flat stick.

Below are my picks for the 2022 Zozo Championship:

Outright Card

Sungjae Im +900 (Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook)

• Playing the best golf of his life currently
• Excluding the Presidents Cup, Im has three runner-ups  in his last five starts along with a T12 at the FedEx St. Jude and a seventh-place finish last week at the Shriners
• Im has cleaned up in strokes gained across the board dating back to the 3M Open
• Finished T3 at this event back in 2019
• Stellar OTT in terms of distance and accuracy
• Could be Sungjae time this week in Tokyo folks

Collin Morikawa +1400 (Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook)

• By far the best iron player in this field
• T22 and T7 in this tournament when played at this golf course
• In his last eight starts, he has gained strokes OTT five times
• In his last eight starts, he has gained strokes on approach and in the ball-striking category seven times
• Last 50 rounds, Morikawa is top five in ball striking, gaining just over a stroke to the field
• Average bent grass putter which is fine given the greens here are slower than the tour average
• Think it’s time for Morikawa to get back in the winning circle

Viktor Hovland +1800 (Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook)

• Hovland has been playing some solid golf on the European Tour
• He has a T5 at the BMW PGA Championship and a T34 at the Italian Open
• Approach and ball-striking numbers have been stellar, gaining five in the last six in those categories
• Elite bent-grass putter who can find a groove early and often
• One of the best players in this field in terms of shots gained approach from 175 plus yards out – an important metric given the long par fours and fives
• High success rate at international events
• If Hovland can drive the ball well and be crisp around the green, I think he will have a shot at it come Sunday

Value Plays:

Keegan Bradley +3500 (Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tom Hoge +4000

Top 40:

Sam Ryder -125

Adam Schenk -125

FRL:

Keegan Bradley +3500

Sebastian Munoz +4000

Let’s be great folks.

Statistics -> Rickrungood.com

– PGA Betting 101 –

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