This year for the regular NFL season, we hit on 60% of our plays. In the opening round of the playoffs, we went 2-3, going 1-3 on sides and 1-0 on our only total. For the playoffs, we look to get into the black and bring home some winners as we watch and enjoy these fantastic matchups this weekend. Let’s get right into it with the 2023 Divisional Round: Free Picks and Betting Tips.

SATURDAY

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

We know Kansas City can score points, that much is obvious to all NFL fans. This year, the Chiefs averaged 29 points per game while converting 48% on third down plays. However, the other side of the ball hasn’t been good for the Chiefs as they have allowed four teams to score 24+ in four of their last six games. If teams like Houston and Denver can score 24 to 27 points on the Chiefs, certainly this Jaguars offense can.

Jacksonville put up 40 points on Dallas, 36 on the Titans, 28 on the Ravens, and 31 last week against the Chargers. Take the total Over 53 points in this one as the former player and pupil. Doug Pederson takes on his former coach and teacher Andy Reid in a battle of offensive masterminds. The moneyline value is on the Jaguars +395 and my best teaser in this game would be the Jaguars and the Over.

The Pick: Over 53

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Without comparing talent between these two teams, your first instinct would tell you to take the Giants and the points in this matchup. The Giants have covered seven of their last eight games and in five straight. However, the Eagles haven’t looked the same since Jalen Hurts got hurt against the Bears. They didn’t play well in Week 18 against a 2nd and 3rd string Giants team. That being said, when you compare the talent between the two teams on both sides of the football, it just can’t be ignored.

All of these things considered, it leads me to take the Eagles despite the high spread against a red-hot team in the Giants. It certainly could take Hurts a quarter or two to get into a rhythm in this game, but eventually, things will pop for Philly. The Eagles can run and pass effectively behind that extremely talented offensive line. Additionally, their defense can bring a ton of pressure. They lead the NFL in sacks this season, finishing 15 sacks higher than the 2nd best team, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Overall, I love what the Giants have done this year and I could possibly see them not only covering but even beating the Eagles, but I have to stick with my matchup numbers and that is Philly minus the points. Buy this spread down to seven if you can, tease the Eagles with the Over, or take the Over straight up. If you are feeling the Giants in this game or think they have a shot, the Giants +290 on the moneyline is definitely a decent bet.

The Picks: Eagles -7.5, Over 48

SUNDAY

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

The narrative this week by many in the national media and even on Twitter and from some Vegas guys is Josh Allen isn’t playing well because he’s turning the ball over too much. However, Allen and the Bills keep it rolling while winning eight games in a row averaging 28 points per game and converting a league-high 50% on third down.

Somehow Allen’s arm talent and constant wow throws are being ignored because he’s not playing well and turning it over too much! I have a theory on this and it’s a high percentage of these people are rooting for Allen to fail because they never liked him from the start and thought he would be a huge bust. Allen obviously has proved the doubters wrong and silenced his haters. The Bills are now slowly starting to emerge and the hate and doubt are re-emerging again. It likely won’t end well for them just like when they doubted and bashed him when he came into the league and in his first few seasons.

The Bengals are obviously a very tough team led by Joe Burrow and have an even bigger winning streak than the Bills, winning nine straight. The trouble is Burrow will be down three very important starting offensive linemen this week. Yes, Burrow has overcome bad offensive line play before, but you could argue that his offensive line situation is worse now than last year. At least last season he had some consistency on the line, now the Bengals line has been shuffled around and it will continue to be shuffled in this game.

It’s possible the Allen turnover narrative could prove true and the Bills still pull out another victory like they have been doing, for the most part, this season.  Regardless of what happens, I expect the Bills to win this game and advance to the AFC Championship game in Atlanta next weekend. Take the Over as both these quarterbacks will put this game over the total. Finally, you might look to tease the Bills and the Over.

The Picks: Buffalo -5.5, Over 48

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers look like the toughest team in the NFL right now. Between their offensive and defensive talent and the emergence of the rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, everything is working. When Dallas is on their game and Dak Prescott isn’t turning it over they look extremely impressive as evidenced in their 40-3 win over the Minnesota Vikings. They have the potential to make a serious run in these playoffs. We saw the Seattle Seahawks play with the 49ers for a little over a half of football last week and I think Dallas will play with them for the entire game.

The Cowboys will need to get some pressure on Purdy. If they can turn the ball over a few times, that will be a major factor. Dallas should cover this number and once again I expect another Over to hit. That means I’m picking every game this week to go Over the point total. Take Dallas and the Over teaser. For the value and the upset potential, you can take the Dallas moneyline at +175.

The Pick: Cowboys +4, Over 46.5

Thanks for reading, have a great weekend, and enjoy the games! You can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy.

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