2023 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates
Spring Training is here and fantasy baseball season is inching closer. The 2023 MLB season kicks off on March 30th, with 15 games being played on Opening Day. Here are some breakout players that you might target in your upcoming fantasy drafts as we enter draft season.
Corey Seager
Shortstop, Texas Rangers
Why would a 30-home run shortstop be in a breakout column? Corey Seager broke out last season with Texas, hitting 33 home runs to 83 RBIs. He had the lowest batting average of his career hitting .245. However, in the seasons prior, Seager hit over .300 (while they were not full seasons, just shows the potential is there).
As we now know, the MLB is implanting the shift ban. Seager was one of the most affected players by the shift. With this in play, I would expect the batting average to climb. According to CBS Sports, Seager hit 123 times into the shift recording an out. If Seager could turn half of those into base hits we are talking about a drastic average increase. Finally, if we can see Seager hit .270 with 30 or more home runs, he is an absolute steal at his ADP of 59 at NFBC.
Oneil Cruz
Shortstop, Pittsburgh Pirates
A very popular breakout this season is Oneil Cruz. In his rookie season, Cruz hit 17 home runs and stole ten bases in 87 games played. He only hit .233, but the 6’7 shortstop could approach 30 home runs if all goes well this season. Furthermore, he hits the ball extremely hard and could approach 20-20 this season as well.
With an ADP of 68, Cruz likely will climb as the spring goes on. His raw grade power is elite, and the 30 home runs I mentioned feel like his floor. Cruz has a legitimate 40-home run upside, and his speed makes him a very unique player. Overall, the Shortstop is a deep position this season, but Cruz has immense upside this year.
Vinnie Pasquantino
First Base, Kansas City Royals
In his Spring Training debut, Vinnie Pasquantino blasted his first home run of the spring. Pasquantino is climbing boards all across the industry and is projected big-time power numbers this season. Additionally, he debuted last season and played 72 games. In those 72 games, he hit ten home runs to 26 RBIs while batting .295.
In a full-season stretch that is 20-plus home runs. Really, I’d expect Pasquantino to approach 25 to 30 home runs this season and is being drafted 93 in NFBC. Pasquantino started off the season slow but ended the season on a hot stretch, and if his first spring game was any indication. We are in for a breakout season here.
Corbin Carroll
Outfield, Arizona Diamondbacks
I was tempted not to include Corbin Carroll here as a breakout player. However, his ADP as a rookie is incredibly high (70 on NFBC). That being said, Carroll’s ability to steal bases, accompanied by the rule changes, makes him a true breakout this season.
Last year, he stole 31 bases last season in the Minors in under 100 games. Though when was called up to the Majors and didn’t have a huge impact, his ability to steal bases is game-changing. Realistically, he could challenge 30 to 40 stolen bases this season. Additionally, he has five-category potential on top of the elite speed he comes with. With an ADP of 70, and the outfield being shallow this season, Carroll is a great option.
Hunter Greene
Starting Pitcher, Cincinnati Reds
Hunter Greene is one of, if not the hardest-throwing pitchers in Major League Baseball. He has elite strikeout potential, but he might hurt you in the ERA category. Last season Greene threw 125.2 innings and struck out 164 batters. Those are elite numbers. If Greene throws a full season we could be talking a range of 200 to 250 strikeouts which puts him in the same company as some of the elite talent out there. The problem for fantasy baseball is going to be his ERA.
Greene’s ERA last season was 4.44, his WHIP was 1.21 and he was 5-13 as a starter. While he is not a pitcher you can count on for wins or even trust for ERA, the strikeouts are hard to ignore. With a 108 ADP on NFBC, he could produce elite numbers in that category alone. Just make sure you are drafting some ERA boosters throughout your draft as well.
Dustin May
Starting Pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers
Dustin May is on the verge of a breakout. In 2021, he was looking dominant. He threw a sub 3.00 ERA with a high strike rate, but Tommy John Surgery derailed his hot start. May returned last season for six starts and had a 4.50 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 30 innings. While he is averaging just about a strikeout per inning.
May is only 25 years old and is pitching for one of the best teams in baseball. He should be able to rack up wins, and if he is striking out a batter an inning on average. Furthermore, I would expect May to strike out somewhere between 150 to 200 batters this upcoming season. With an ADP of 157, May is a great addition at that pick, even in 15-team leagues that are in the double-digit rounds.
Nick Lodolo
Starting Pitcher, Cincinnati Reds
Another Cincinnati Red makes this list as a breakout for fantasy baseball. Nick Lodolo is a popular breakout pick this season. Last year, Lodolo threw 103.1 innings and struck out 131 batters. He had a 3.66 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP. Additionally, he went 4-7 in those starts. His current ADP on NFBC is 131, making him a nice pick there.
Making his MLB debut last season, Lodolo posted excellent numbers. He also ended September on a high note, showcasing his high strikeout ability. Joining fellow breakout candidate Hunter Greene, you can’t go wrong drafting either of these high-upside arms in the later rounds of your fantasy baseball drafts.
Reid Detmers
Starting Pitcher, Los Angeles Angels
One of my favorite picks to break out this season is Reid Detmers. Detmers had a roller-coaster season last year. He threw a no-hitter out of nowhere, then had a rough patch, then came back up and was quietly dominant. What might suppress his ADP is the fact that the Angels may go with a 6 man rotation.
Last season, Detmers threw 129 innings and struck out 122 batters with a 3.77 ERA. Once he was called back up from the minors, he was very solid on the mound, throwing a sub-3.50 ERA, and showing the true breakout potential he has. That being said, Detmers has 150 to 200 strikeout potential depending on how many starts he can get in with the six-man rotation. His ADP on NFBC currently is 206 and is an absolute value right there in your fantasy baseball drafts.
2023 Fantasy Baseball Best Ball Sleepers
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