2023 Fantasy Football – RB Leaders, Recap, and Data

The 2023 NFL season is behind us. As you know, the Kansas City Chiefs have been recrowned as Super Bowl Champions. Before becoming fully immersed in the upcoming 2024 season, let’s take a moment to reflect on the fantasy season that was. As Winston Churchill said, “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see.” 

This is the running back portion of the series. In case you missed it, check out the year in review for the quarterbacks and wide receivers. Additionally, keep an eye out for the tight ends review coming soon. 

Before diving in, a word of caution. With any attempt to look back, we will be met with hindsight bias. Once we know Puka Nacua had a phenomenal season, it is difficult not to look back and see the clues while what you were seeing in the moment gets ever more foggy. Sprinkle in a little confirmation bias – “I knew it! See, here are all the ‘definitive’ clues I’m finding now that I’m looking back.” I will attempt to expose my own biases through this exploration and highly encourage anyone reading to think through their biases as well. 

Fantasy Football Top-15 Running Backs (2023)

Yes, I know people love their standard 12-team leagues and want an easy RB1 label. However, that’s rarely the case and I enjoy the additional context of total fantasy points in conjunction with mean and median values. More on the QB1 and other labels in the Data Notes section at the end. For now, enjoy the top 15 players with at least 8 games (50% of the season played)!

Overperformers

This section is dedicated to the guys who outproduced their ADP most significantly. 

Kyren Williams – Kyren Williams was one of only six backs with more than two games played with over 80% of their games crossing the RB24 threshold. Not only did he provide a safe floor, he also provided a high ceiling. Williams posted 50% of his games above the RB6 threshold second in the league only to fantasy superstud Christian McCaffrey. The only downside to Williams’ 2023 campaign was five weeks on IR for a high ankle sprain. Next year he will be much more costly than the 60th RB off the board yet if he posts similar numbers he will be more than worth the price. 

Breece Hall – The Jets were pretty terrible in 2023. One of the lone bright spots was the emergence of Breece Hall as a fantasy stud though. Hall was top-12 in weekly average percent of offense with a mark over 28%. He also had one week crossing the RB1 threshold and five weeks surpassing the RB6 mark. The dark spot for Hall was his four games under 10 PPR points. Next year, Hall should easily be in the RB1 conversation regardless of the QB situation. A healthy Aaron Rodgers could push him into the conversation of top-five picks of the draft.

Travis Etienne – The Jacksonville Jaguars failed to live up to expectations finishing a single game over .500 and at least a game out of the playoffs. Some of the blame resides with QB Trevor Lawrence’s inconsistent performance – little of the blame resides with Etienne. He wasn’t a huge steal in drafts coming off the board in the third round but returning first-round value is always a win. Etienne was mostly consistent with over 50% of his games hitting the mark for RB12 or better. Five games less than 10 PPR points with two during most people’s fantasy playoffs. Better quarterbacking by Lawrence could lead to bringing up Etienne’s floor in 2024. 

Rashaad White – White was one of only four backs that played all seventeen games of the season and finished all seventeen over the RB36 threshold. He was more than just safe; he had over 53% of his games above the RB12 threshold as well. The best part of having White on your team in 2023 was you were able to acquire him around RB24 in last summer’s drafts after the 5th round. He could have been part of a dynamite zero-RB strategy or part of a heavy-RB rotation. If Tampa chooses to keep Baker Mayfield at the helm, I’d expect White to return to his RB1 status in 2024. 

David Montgomery – The typical storyline from Detriot in 2023 was headlined by Jahmyr Gibbs. Although both Lions’ backs made the top 15 in mean points per game, Montgomery far exceeded his 7th-round ADP and 31st RB off the board. Gibbs still had a great year with five games above the RB6 threshold but backfieldmates each had seven weeks above the RB18 threshold. That was good for 50% of Montgomery’s games played – not bad for a guy drafted to be a flex play or zero-RB target. 

James Cook – The Bills once again came up a little short in the playoffs but much like the other backs on the list, Cook wasn’t the issue. Typically drafted in the 7th round, Cook finished the season as the RB12 in total points. He provided weekly value with just shy of 50% of his games crossing the RB18 threshold (47%). In Week 15, he showed off his ceiling by dropping 30+ points. Unfortunately though, closed out the fantasy playoffs much like the Bills in disappointing fashion; in Weeks 16-18, he failed to top 10 PPR points in any game.  

Underperformers 

Typically labeled “busts”, these are the players that underproduced their ADP. 

Austin Ekeler – The biggest question about Ekeler’s performance in 2023 is whether his poor numbers were caused by his age and subsequent decline or the ineptitude of the Chargers offense. The Chargers finished in the bottom half of the league in both total yards and points. I don’t think Ekeler is washed just yet but I’m not about to pay his first-round cost anymore. 

Miles Sanders – I’ll be the first to admit, I didn’t think things would be this bad for Sanders in 2023. Yes, there’s some blame to be placed on the purely atrocious Panthers’ offense but some blame rests squarely on Sanders’ shoulders. Sanders’ ADP was at borderline top-20 back but finished outside the top-50 RBs in total points. By mid-season, Chuba Hubbard had leapfrogged Sanders. Injuries to Sanders’ groin, shoulder, and toe throughout the season helped open opportunities for Hubbard until he took over the lead role. Sanders will most likely be an afterthought in 2024. 

Rhamondre Stevenson – Another question of bad performance or bad team and another resounding answer of “both.” A high ankle sprain ended Stevenson’s season a few games early but he is in the section instead of the injury section because he was underproducing even when healthy. Drafted as a top-10 RB, Stevenson was more of a back-end weekly RB2. Stevenson only had 25% of his games above the RB12 threshold – the same percentage of games he had below the RB36 threshold.

Tony Pollard – For as good as the Cowboys’ offense was for fantasy, Pollard was typically the odd man out. Pollard’s total wasn’t egregiously bad; he finished as the RB14 disappointing those who drafted him as the 6th RB off the board as his ADP suggested. However, his mean points per game were brought down by the games that he simply disappeared from the stat sheet. His most Hudini-like act took place in the fantasy playoffs from weeks 15 – 17 when he failed to post a weekly score greater than 8 PPR points.

2023 RB Injuries for Fantasy Football

I set this category aside because I feel it’s unfair to label a guy that got injured a “bust”.

JK Dobbins – Don’t be sad it’s over be happy that it happened. I hope Dobbins-truthers can take some solace in the fact that he was looking good as a central part of the Ravens’ offense before suffering a season-ending Achilles injury. We barely got more than 30 minutes of game time from him but in the first half of week 1, he took 6 of 7 of the team’s running back rushes and was the second most targeted guy. If the Ravens return in 2024 with the same rushing mentality they brought into 2023, Dobbins could be valuable if his ADP remains depressed after his injury. 

Nick Chubb – A horrific-looking injury in week 2 slammed the door shut on Chubb’s season. The Browns went on to make a playoff appearance partly due to their defense and run game with Jerome Ford posting a top-20 total finish as Chubb’s understudy. Chubb will start 2024 on the back side of the running back age hill in addition to needing to recover from his knee injuries. I love the player but his situation in 2024 will make it difficult to trust him. 

Other notable injuries (games played):

Josh Jacobs (13)

Aaron Jones (11)

Jonathan Taylor (10)

2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

Following Churchill’s lead, we will use this look back to help us see into the future. The 2024 season won’t start for a while, many things will change from this writing to your drafts. However, here are a few players to keep an eye on through these long football-less days.

Devon Achane – Achane could have been in the overperformers or injuries sections since he met the criteria for both. He is an electric offensive weapon on a team that wants to create big plays. The only glaring drawback is his frame, or lack thereof, which raises questions about his ability to stay healthy. In his first year, he has spent time on the injury report for knee, ankle, and toe issues resulting in six missed games. I’m very excited for his sophomore year but want to acquire him with the caveat that he might only play 75% of the games in 2024 

James Cook – Rumors of the Bills trading Diggs will lead to a shake-up of the offense. It’ll be hard to say how this will impact Cook’s value moving forward. He is a solid hold in most dynasty situations and we will get more information before redraft season starts. I worry about overvaluing him in 2024 if he starts getting labeled a “workhorse”. Cook’s skill set should keep him relevant in whatever direction the Bills go in for the 2024 season. 

In general, the running back group will be shaken up throughout the off-season. Several backs are expected to become free agents headlined by Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, and Austin Ekeler. Their landing spots will kick some guys down depth charts while opening the door of opportunity for someone else. And while many people do not see a stud rusher in the 2024 draft class there are some very solid options like Trey Benson, Bucky Irving, and Blake Corum.  

2023 Fantasy Football Data and Stats

The data is compiled from various free and openly available sources and then used to calculate further data points. For instance, widely available general player stats are compiled and then used to calculate a player’s average or median points per game. For any questions concerning the underlying data, please reach out to me on X @fftheathomedad. 

When I use terms like QB12 or QB24 thresholds, I am referring to the average points of that particular player across the 2023 season. Using who was the twelfth-highest-scoring QB in any particular week creates a misrepresentation of what the score at that level typically is. For example, CJ Stroud scored 14.16 points in both weeks 5 and 6, in week 6 he was the QB12 however in week 5 he was the QB17 more than 4 points less than the QB12 on the week.

The thresholds used along with the median and range of values are below for reference. 

2024 NFL Draft Quick Links

• Senior Bowl Standout Players
• 2024 NFL Draft Eligible Prospects Returning to School
• 2024 NFL Draft Tracker: Underclassman Who Have Declared

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