Greetings and a Happy New Year to all the folks out there. What an unbelievable feeling to be back. After an elite fall swing, the PGA Tour returns this week as we head out west to Hawaii for the Sentry Tournament of Champions at good ole Kapalua. May I be the first to welcome you to the best spot for all things golf and PGA Tour Betting.  Aloha!

2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions

Like most years at Kapalua, the field is nothing shy of stacked. Household names across the board minus Rory McIlory, who elected to take a rain check for this week’s action. Defending champ, Cameron Smith will also not be in the field as he has taken his talents elsewhere, aka the LIV Tour. There will be no cut this week with a field of 39 golfers. All golfers who won on the PGA Tour in 2022 and those who competed in the Tour Championship will all be playing this week in Hawaii. Pretty special being awarded a star-studded field out of the gate for the start of the new calendar year.

The Sentry Tournament of Champions is no stranger to the PGA Tour, dating back to its inception in 1953. The tournament has been played at The Plantation Course at Kapalua since 1999 so we are blessed with key statistics and trends to put us in the best positions to handicap this event. Kapalua is known to be one of the easiest tracks on tour. However, this can change year to year based on what mother nature brings. Heavy winds can cause scores to reduce significantly so make sure to be monitoring the weather all week for this one.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua

• Designers: Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore
• Length: 7,597 – Par 73
• Greens: TIF-eagle Bermuda Grass
• Green Size: Large (8,700 square feet)
• Stimpmeter: Slow (10-11.5)
• Bunkers: 93
• Water Hazards: 0

Kapalua has massive fairways, making driving distance more of a priority than driving accuracy. However, in my opinion, the difference this week is going to come down to the approach play and the short game. The presence of highly undulating fairways and greens coupled with the threat of windy conditions is something to hone in on. Many players are going to find themselves with awkward approach shots with the ball being above and below their feet.

Historically, winners at this place tend to gain a stroke on approach and are dialed in with the flat stick. Not to mention, being an elite sand player is a huge plus given the 93 bunkers here. The track is set at an unconventional par 73, with 11 par fours, four par fives, and only three par threes. Expect a birdie fest this week as most of the holes at Kapalua have over a 10% birdie rate.

Key Stats for Success

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • 75-100 Yards and 200+ Yards
• Strokes Gained: Lag Putting
• Putting: Slow Greens
• Strokes Gained: Birdies or Better Gained
• Strokes Gained: Par 5 Scoring

Betting Strategy

My betting strategy this week for both the outright market and DFS market is to target golfers who are elite ball strikers, who can get rolling with the flat stick, and who have a great course/comparable course history.

About 40% of strokes gained at this track have come on approach. Like I keep saying, the driver doesn’t win it for you in this event, the second shot does. Do not rely on middle-iron play here. In terms of yardages, the bulk of approach shots will be in the 75-100 and 200+ yard range.

About 35% of strokes gained at this track have come from the putter. The greens this week will be Bermuda but on the slower end of the spectrum, coming in at about 10.5 on the stimp. It’s a bit tricky here as most of the greens we see on the PGA Tour that are Bermuda grass are typically pretty fast. This week is the complete opposite. Overall, look to hone in on players who are elite lag putters and who tend to be successful on slower greens.

If we take a look at the top of the board, John Rahm, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa all have finished in at least the top five at Kapalua dating back to 2018. The only two players in the field who have won this event in the past are Justin Thomas (2017 & 2020) and Xander Schauffele (2019).

DFS Outlook – Player Profiles

Top Guns to Consider:

John Rahm $12,000 (FD Price Tag)

• Most expensive player in the field who is coming into this week in elite form.
• Won twice during the fall swing, both on the Euro Tour (DP World Tour Champ Dubai and Spanish Open).
• Final 4 true events of 2022 were two wins, a T2, and a T4.
• Rahm has gained seven strokes or more with the flatstick in three out of his last five starts. His short game is looking scary good.
• Has finished T10 or better in his last five starts at Kapalua.

Justin Thomas $11,500 (FD Price Tag)

• Elite course history at Kapalua – Dating back to 2016 JT has finished: T21, 1, T22, 3, 1, 3, and T5.
• Even though JT has been struggling with the flat stick as of late, he is historically very solid putting in the two events held annually in the state of Hawaii (Sentry and Sony Open).
• Inclined to see where ownership shakes out with JT into Wednesday, but given his elite ball-striking ability, T2G play, and overall course history I do not think you can go wrong rostering him here.

Matthew Fitzpatrick $10,200 (FD Price Tag)

• Fitzpatrick will be making his Sentry Tournament of Champions debut this week in Hawaii
• Fitzpatrick is the one player in the field with minimal course history who I believe will perform well this week
• Within the last 100 rounds out of everyone in the field, Fitzpatrick ranks fifth in total strokes gained
• Iron play and putting have been stellar over the last year – gaining strokes in both those categories in pretty much every event
• Really like the price tag and spot for Fitzy this week for his first event of the calendar year

Cheap Plays to Consider: 

• Tom Hoge
• Adam Scott
• Aaron Wise

Golf from now until late August? Say no more. Let’s get it rolling folks. The PGA Tour is back! If you’re new to betting on the PGA, I made a guide here called PGA Tour Betting – A Beginners Guide.

Be sure to follow my Twitter account @Jz_Snacks11 for the outright card and DFS intel. I will be monitoring DFS ownership as the week goes on and will make my final decisions come Wednesday night.

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