2023 Sony Open – Course Preview, Betting Strategy, and DFS Outlook
Greetings folks! We saw a wild comeback win from Jon Rahm in the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week in Hawaii. Now we travel one island over to Honolulu for this week’s Sony Open. It pleases me to say that this tournament will be the first full-field event of the calendar year. Your classic four-day tournament with a cut, and fairly nice field right at our disposal. If you’re new to betting on the PGA Tour, check out my beginner’s guide here.
When you think of the Sony Open what comes to mind? The only answer should be longevity. The Sony Open has been the first full-field event of each calendar year on the PGA Tour ever since 1965. Might be a mouthful, but it’s the damn truth. Additionally, the event has been played on the same course ever since its inception. Waialae Country Club is the name you were looking for.
This is a track with so much history and great moments. Take last year for example, when Russell Henley had a complete meltdown and gave up a 6-stroke lead to our defending champion, Hideki Matsuyama. All in all, this tournament never seems to miss year after year. Don’t expect that change this week.
The Course: Waialae Country Club
- Course Name: Waialae Country Club
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Designers: Seth Raynor (1927) and Tom Doak (2017)
- Fairways: Bermuda
- Rough: Bermuda
- Greens: Bermuda (11 stimp)
- Length: Par 70 – 7,044 Yards
- Hazards: Drink on 5 holes
Waialae Country Club is one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour. If you do not factor wind into the equation, we’ll have a birdie-fest just like we saw last week at Kapalua. The track consists of four par threes, 12 par fours, and two par fives which are extremely short. With the bulk of the holes coming from par fours, it’s important to hone in on them. Looking at the scorecard, 75% of the par fours play in the 360 to the 460-yard bucket, leading us to believe that a bulk of the second shots this week will either come from short or mid-irons. The name of the game at Waialae is approach play.
Expect players to club down off the tee this week as the track favors more accurate drivers of the ball than those longer. Given that Waialae is a short and fairly tight track, players are going to want to ensure they are in the best positions for birdie looks hole after hole.
Opportunities gained will be vital this week as pretty much every hole at Waialae presents a scoring opportunity for these players. It’s not shocking that the average winning score has been -20 since 2017. The recipe for success this week is no form of rocket science.
To sum it all up, you should target golfers who are accurate off the tee. As well as golfers who flush their mid-to-short iron shot, golfers who have shown success here in the past, and those who are dialed on Bermuda greens.
Stats for Success:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Prox: 125-175 Yards
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Opportunities Gained
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda Grass
- Birdies or Better Gained
Betting Strategy and Player Picks:
Tom Kim $10,500
For the first time in his career, Tom Kim is the betting leader on the board. To be quite honest, I think this track sets up perfectly for him. Given he has never played at Waialae, Kim is going to attack this place via his accurate driving and ball-striking ability.
This course reminds me a lot of Sedgefield CC where the Wyndham Championship is played. A track that is Bermuda head to toe, caters to accurate drivers of the golf ball, and a place that relies heavily on shot number 2. By the way, Kim won that event this past year.
I am fairly high on Kim this week and love him outright and in the DFS sector. I am interested to see what happens with his ownership percentage as the week moves. Furthermore, we could potentially see a dip as many bettors migrate over to Sungjae Im and Jordan Spieth. This could leave Tom aka “Him” Kim right where we want him. He’s the favorite on just about every sports book this week, and rightfully so. He’s currently +1000 to win it all on Caesars.
Tom Hoge $9,900
Another player who I think will have success this week is Tom Hoge. After coming off last week’s Sentry TOC with a stellar performance; finishing T3, it’s pretty clear that Hoge is in prime form. He gained ten stokes on approach and almost three with the flatstick in Maui. Not to mention, he is one of the best short-iron players on Tour. In case you missed the fall swing, Hoge had a stretch of four T15 finishes, where he finished T4 in one of them at the Shriners.
Hoge on average in his last five starts:
- Five and a half strokes gained on approach
- Almost six strokes gained ball striking
- Nearly 2 strokes gained putting
If there’s one thing that slightly worries me about Hoge this week, it’s his course history at Waialae. Dating back to 2018, Hoge has a third-place finish, a T12, and three missed cuts. Two of those cuts were in the last two years. However, I am not too worried here about Hoge given the form that he is in. I was riding him all last year and love what I have been seeing as of late. Not changing my mindset now. Let it fly with big Tom Hoge.
Emiliano Grillo $8,000
Think a ton of people are sleeping on Emiliano Grillo, especially at his price tag of $8,000. If you are looking at a buy-low scenario I recommend you pivot over to Grillo. We saw Grillo start finding something with the flat stick toward the latter end of last season after struggling for some time. In his last nine recorded starts, Grillo has gained with the putter six times. He has a nice track record at this place, playing it for the past 6 years.
Grillo since 2016 at the Sony Open aka Waialae Country Club:
- Clean sweep in strokes gained off the tee
- Gained in approach three out of those six starts
- Clean sweep in strokes gained via ball striking
- Gained in putting four out of those six starts
The one outlier here comes from Grillo’s around the green play, where he lost strokes five out of those last six starts. Given his recent form with the flat stick, coupled with his continued dominance off the tee and with the second shot, I can get past the around-the-green play flaws. Overall, I really like the spot here for Grillo. I’m eager to see the 30-year-old Argentinian show out this week in Honolulu. He’s +6000 to win it all on Caesars.
Value Plays to Consider:
- Sam Ryder
- Alex Smalley
If you’re new to betting on the PGA, I made a guide here called PGA Tour Betting – A Beginners Guide.
Best of luck folks!
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