2024 Dynasty Rookie Profile: Caleb Williams, QB

The 2024 NFL Draft is only a couple of months away. For two years we have been excited for this quarterback class and now that everything is settled, it indeed lived up to the hype. However, among the different tiers in this class, there is one clear-cut prize at the top. That quarterback is USC’s former Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams.

Williams was a 5-star recruit out of Gonzaga High School in Washington DC where he was the number two ranked quarterback in the country. He was recruited by head coach Lincoln Riley and signed with the Oklahoma Sooners where he would sit behind fellow 2024 draft prospect Spencer Rattler. It would not be long before the freshman quarterback would take the starting role from Rattler and become an instant star.

After his freshman season, Williams entered the transfer portal and followed Lincoln Riley to USC. He put up an astounding 4,919 total yards and 52 total touchdowns which resulted in him winning the prestigious Heisman Trophy as the Nation’s top player, beating out 2023 NFL Rookie of the Year,  CJ Stroud. The Trojans would finish with an 11-3 record and an eventual loss in the Cotton Bowl to Tulane 45-46. However, Williams did everything he could to try and pull out a win with 472 total yards and 5 touchdowns.

Williams’s Junior season would be his final season in college football. He started the year off strong posting 24 total touchdowns and only 1 interception in his first five games. However, Williams would run into a rough patch of games. Most notably his game against Notre Dame where he threw 3 interceptions and lost 23-37. While he struggled down the stretch, he still finished his season with a respectable 41 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in only 12 games.

Caleb Williams (QB)  USC – Dynasty Rookie Profile

Height: 6’1

Weight: 215 lbs

Strengths

Generational Arm Talent

The first thing that pops on the tape is Williams’s ability to make any throw from anywhere on the field. He will have one of the strongest arms in the NFL the second he gets drafted. Additionally, his ability to change arm angles is also extremely rare. Sometimes we are in such awe of his arm talent, that we don’t notice that he is also extremely accurate to all levels of the field. His ability to use touch on his throws is as equally impressive as his arm strength. Most importantly, he has one of the most talented arms we have seen over the last two decades.

Ability To Create

Equally as impressive as his arm talent is his ability to create. Williams’s pocket presence and ability outside of the pocket are as elite as you will see. When a play breaks down he has no problem escaping pressure and turning negative plays into huge positive gains. Additionally, he routinely jukes and outruns defenders using his legs as well as runs through defenders on occasion. Williams had a verified 4.57 40-yard dash in high school so clearly he can get out and move. Finally, his ability to read coverages and limit mistakes during all of that chaos is extremely rare.

Weaknesses

Hero Ball

Williams has such great talent that there are times he gets caught up in playing too much hero ball. On occasion, he will pass up open underneath routes in favor of bigger plays downfield. Furthermore, he sometimes misses some throws downfield which is not a surprise given the difficulty of some of his throws due to confidence in his arm talent. He also has plays where he will bail on the pocket early when it is not necessary. There is some worry he may do this because he is not reading the defense correctly pre-snap.

Ball Security

While he is great at taking care of the ball in the air, Williams has a huge fumbling problem. Since 2021 Caleb Williams has had 30 fumbles which was the most in the FBS. This again is partly him trying to play hero ball too much, as well as not emphasizing ball security. Any coach who takes him in the draft will have to coach this out of him.

NFL Fit and Draft Capital

Caleb Williams is projected to be a top 3 pick in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft. More notably, he is the consensus number-one overall pick and has been for two years. He fits any team that needs a quarterback and should fit into any system. More specifically he will thrive in systems that feature run-pass options and allow him to get out and use his legs to create.

At this point in the draft process, we know the Bears, Commanders, and Patriots have the top three picks. I don’t see any way he falls past pick number two. If the Bears do not take him, someone is going to want to trade up and take him at number one. The Commanders at pick number two would be elated to take the hometown kid and bring him back to Washington DC.

Dynasty Outlook

Because of his upside and skill, Caleb Williams should be the 1.01 in any Superflex rookie draft. In dynasty fantasy football start-ups, he should be valued anywhere from pick 1.07 to pick 1.12. A player of his caliber and name value will hold that value even if he has a rocky rookie season. He should be the number one overall pick in the NFL draft and be a day-one starter in the NFL. Ultimately, he is going to give you that coveted rushing upside that most of the top fantasy quarterbacks will give you.

In the end, do not be surprised to see multiple seasons of 8 or more rushing touchdowns throughout his NFL career. In addition to the rushing upside is the immense value of his arm. Williams is going to have some games where he will trust his arm too much and turn the ball over. However, he is also going to have games where he trusts his arm and throws four touchdowns in a game making those same reads.