Today, I’ll be breaking down some of the top third-year breakout candidates for fantasy football leagues in the 2023 season. Some of these players had some nice seasons during the 2022 NFL season, but they will have a chance to take a big step forward this coming year. In fantasy football, you always want to draft these potential breakout players as they can help you win now. Continue reading for my top 3rd-year breakout candidates for fantasy football in 2023.

If you are reading this, we are family. We are part of the sick, obsessive, twisted members of the fantasy football community. The endless search for tips, insight, knowledge, and different perspectives. You may never remember your wife’s birthday, but you will never forget to set a lineup before Thursday Night Football. Additionally, you may WANT your in-laws to like you, but you NEED to get a headstart on who’s going to be a late-round pick that wins you a championship. All that being said…Together, we will hoist the fantasy football championship trophy. Let’s get into it.

Elijah Moore

Fresh out of the doghouse, and into the Dawg Pound, my list starts with 23-year-old Elijah Moore. I’ll be the first to admit it. I was very high on Moore last year coming off a scorching hot end to his rookie campaign. Needless to say, it didn’t work out the best. During Weeks 7-11 of the 2021 season, Moore was a top 10 fantasy wide receiver by either half or full-point PPR standards (28-392-5) and that was with backup-level Mike White at the helm. Unfortunately, his second-year outlook was stifled a little with the Jets taking Garrett Wilson. In addition to that, he was frustrated with the number of targets he was getting. However, a competent NFL offense can surely support two stud wide receivers.

Offensive competency was hard to come by for the Jets last year. Rather than taking a step forward after missing the first two games, Zach Wilson saw a massive regression. Frustrations came to a boiling point as Moore was phased out of the Jets’ offense which became a run-heavy approach and then locked in on Wilson when the Jets took to the air. Coach Saleh’s promises that Moore was a part of the Jets’ future were simply lip service. Additionally, a few health scratches later the former 6th-round pick limped to a  37-446-1 finish for the 2022 season. Barely surpassing the five-week hot streak from 2021 I mentioned earlier.

Sometimes the grass is greener on the other side and Moore is now a Brown. This will be the best quarterback, best offensive scheme, and best opportunity Moore has had since he left Ole Miss. With all due respect, Kevin Stefanski is a much more established play-caller and coach than Saleh. His field-stretching ability is exactly what the Browns need. In addition, Deshaun Watson thrives with that type of playmaker.

When this trade happened, I immediately thought of Will Fuller’s 2020 season when he went 53-879-8 in just 12 games. One more fun fact about that season, Fuller had three touchdowns of over 30 yards. He’s a field-stretching, playmaker. Obviously, a lot of this relies on Watson turning around from what he showed us on the field after his 11-game suspension. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt after being thrown into NFL action and a full offseason should help remedy some of the rust and fix the chemistry issues.

Currently, Moore the WR48 in .5 point PPR according to FantasyPros ADP. I’ll gladly take his upside over guys in front of him such as JuJu Smith- Schuster, Jakobi Meyers, and even Marquise Brown. In addition, I think he could keep the gap close as a complimentary piece to his counterpart Amari Cooper, being drafted as the WR17. Sometimes a player needs a change of scenery and there are fewer better situations than landing in Cleveland for Moore.

Josh Palmer

Last year, Mike Williams missed five games and was noticeably hampered in a few others. Additionally, veteran Keenan Allen only appeared in 10 games. Listen, I’m 30 years old and I’m sore after flag football. Typically, injuries don’t show up less frequently as you age and the guys covering you get bigger, faster, and stronger. There are going to be weeks where Josh Palmer is, at the very least, the second wide receiver option for the Chargers and volume is king in fantasy football.

This is a massive make-or-break year for the little brothers of Los Angeles. Herbert’s banging the door down for a new deal. Brandon Staley, while the seat may not be hot yet, is certainly getting there after last year’s playoff catastrophe. Furthermore, they have invested resources into the offensive line. Also, Kellen Moore is now the OC and brings with him a tremendous scheme that had a healthy Dak Prescott lighting the league on fire. In the AFC West, the Chiefs have won the division for seven straight years, and the Broncos just hired Sean Payton. The pressure is real, and it’s squarely on Brandon Staley to get the Chargers to the next level.

After finishing second in passing yards in 2022, there’s shockingly room to improve that number. That being said, I think Palmer is going to play a huge part in that moving forward. Austin Ekeler is seeking a trade due to compensation. For now, I’ll assume he’s not just for the sake of it. Ekeler leaving leaves behind 127 targets and 107 catches from last year. It’s reasonable to think they facilitate some of those highly efficient, near-the-LOS touches, to their explosive playmaker.

Palmer’s first 1,000-yard season is within reach after finishing 2022 with a 72-769-3 stat line. He offers a different skill set than Allen and Williams as well. Ekeler leaving the Chargers may be the event that opens the floodgates for Palmer’s 2023 breakout season. 

Khalil Herbert

Last year, Khalil Herbert rushed for 729 yards on 129 carries for 5.7 YPC. You could argue that Herbert was already the Bears’ best running back even with the backup workload. Now, David Montgomery is with divisional-rival Detroit Lions. Now, he leaves behind 31 carries inside the 20-yard line from last year and a world of upside for Herbert’s fantasy football value.

I know there will be some skepticism over the D’Onta Foreman signing, but a majority of teams have some type of committee anymore in the NFL. Herbert also brings a different skill set than Foreman. Also, they have the exact amount of career receptions (23) even though he entered the league three years later.

To be clear, Justin Fields is way more of a threat for rushing attempts than Foreman. However, if we sat here and picked apart everything single thing working against a player, nobody would have much upside. Herbert has every-week RB2 with high-upside RB1 weeks once the Chicago backfield commits to his skill set. That is, of course, assuming they don’t draft Bijan Robinson. 

Trevor Lawrence

Now I know what you’re thinking. Trevor Lawrence took such a massive step forward last year, how can he be a breakout candidate? Well, in part because I feel as though Lawrence spent half of last year simply unlearning what Urban Meyer was trying to implement. The other part?  There’s a lot of room for growth in terms of his statistics. After finishing 9th in passing yards (4,113) and 8th in touchdowns (25) there’s still room for more. Even a casual increase of 200 passing yards and three more touchdowns would put Lawrence in the top five of each respective category. 

Doug Pederson is in town and if history is any indicator of the future, the Jaguars hit a grand slam with this hire. While with the Eagles in his first year,  Pederson’s team went 7-9 and barely missed the playoffs. Last year, the Jaguars just went 9-8 and barely made the playoffs. Carson Wentz, then a rookie, compiled a 16-14 TD-INT ratio, 3,782 passing yards, and a 62.44 completion percentage. The year after, 2017 was Carson Wentz’s MVP campaign. Then, he put up a 33-7 TD-INT ratio with almost 3,300 passing yards before a torn ACL turn Nick Foles into a Philly icon.

Lawrence is a way more polished passer than Wentz was at the same point of their NFL careers. There’s clearly a significant jump from year 1 to 2 under Pederson. Plus, the AFC south is in a state of great uncertainty. The Texans and Colts are unset at quarterback and have new head coaches. As for the Titans, they are teetering on a rebuild themselves. For the first time in a long time, The Jaguars are the head dogs atop the AFC South, and I expect them to take full advantage of their position.

After an early career of stat-stuffing for bad Falcons teams, I expect Calvin Ridley to return to his 2020-2021 form of 94 Catches, 1,374 yards, and 9 touchdowns. His route running prowess is an excellent compliment to the field-stretching Christian Kirk and the seam-dominating Evan Engram. Travis Etienne and JaMycal Hasty form an intimidating 1-2 punch that also keeps defenses honest. All this being said, Lawrence has a fantastic group around him. Furthermore, he absolutely has the talent to take the next step into that fantasy football elite quarterback territory in 2023. 

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