Fantasy Football ADP Faceoff: DK Metcalf vs AJ Brown

In both redraft and dynasty leagues, I lean Metcalf’s way over Brown. When deciding between elite talents such as these two there are many different factors that I consider. Quality of divisional opponents, quarterback play, and roster construction. The Seahawks have a higher quality of divisional opponents, which while that may appear to be a detriment I actually think that it works in his favor. In the AFC South, the Titans are less likely to be high-scoring close games in the fourth quarter which means that the team will once again rely heavily on Derrick Henry and the running game to close out those games. Seattle on the other hand is more likely to be in higher scoring close games down the stretch and therefore be throwing the ball and involving their best weapon in Metcalf.

Not much needs to be said as far as the quality of quarterback play. Even though Ryan Tannehill is enjoying a career resurgence in Tennessee, I doubt that you would find anyone in league circles that would champion him over Russell Wilson. When looking at the other pieces on the offensive side of the ball, it’s just as easy to say that Henry and Julio Jones are held in higher esteem at their respective positions than the Seahawks counterparts of Chris Carson and Tyler Lockett. A gamescript that projects to be more favorable for the passing game, better quarterback play, and inferior surrounding talent all push me towards spending the higher draft capital on Metcalf over Brown. – Adam Myers @AdamTMyers

I had a tough time with these elite options as they’re both guys who can break off huge plays at the drop of a hat. Metcalf and Brown entered the NFL in the same season and both turned heads immediately. Ultimately, for me, it comes down to consistency. Metcalf has had 23 games of at least six targets while Brown has 18. Metcalf also beats out Brown in games with at least 5 receptions (13 games to 10) and again in games with at least 13 yards per reception (21 games to 19). There’s no denying that both of these men are explosive and have the talent. They’re both also plenty proven and will be a great addition to anyone’s fantasy roster, but I side with Metcalf. Also of note is Jones, who will be enough of a presence to keep Brown from being one of the more highly targeted wide receivers in the NFL this year. – Benjamin Ditlevson @FFRabbitDad

Metcalf and Brown have much in common going into this 2021 season, and I’m not just talking about each of them having two initials in their names. Both were highly productive fantasy producers in 2020 and have a very high ceiling in 2021. Both are highly dynamic playmakers, with solid quarterback play and productive offensive systems. So who would I go with if I want a wide receiver around the 18-25 range? I would have to go with the player that has more offensive consistency going into 2021 and that would be Metcalf. Both players have a new offensive coordinator, but almost all the playmakers around Brown are new. The Titans lost Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith but added Jones who is going to steal some of Brown’s production. Calvin Ridley had nearly five fewer fantasy points per game with Jones in the lineup compared to when he was out of the lineup. With all the uncertainty surrounding the Titans offense, and Jones potentially lowering Brown’s ceiling, I would pick Metcalf’s higher floor over Brown. – Brendan O’Bryan @OBryanBren

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When you compare the offseason changes for both Brown and Metcalf, I believe Brown has increased his upside even more with the moves the Titans made. Metcalf and the Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator to get used to as well. With reports stating how Pete Carrol has a propensity to tell his offensive coordinators to run the ball, the offense may have a different route down the same path. After losing Smith and Davis, that leaves 157 targets to be redistributed throughout the offense. While Jones is likely to take a large portion of them, there is still plenty remaining targets for Brown to have an even stronger season than he did last year. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing is a former quarterbacks coach and may be looking to use more 11 personnel plays to create more mismatches for Henry. Look for Brown to thrive off of defenses being kept honest with the threat of Jones opposite of him. Metcalf had more targets (16) in the red zone than Brown (12) last year. But it was Brown who posted more receptions, touchdowns, and yards. With greater efficiency, I’ll take Brown in this toss-up, but you can’t really go wrong with either. – Bryce Williams @BryceNFL

Two of the younger, more prolific wide receivers in the NFL. Both coming off some incredible sophomore seasons, where they both took a step in the right direction. So who do I go with? The one who has WR1 potential; and that’s Brown. Let me explain. Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Adam Humphries combined for 192 targets in 2020. Through 14 games in 2020, Brown was targetted 106 times (7.6 targets per game), and could easily see another 50-60 targets this season. Despite battling an injury the entire 2020 season, Brown ended the season as WR12 through 14 games in PPR formats. Brown’s 11 touchdowns were fifth-most in the NFL, and I see that number rising with the addition of Jones. Tannehill threw the ball 481 times in 2020, and that number will likely go up in 2021, which will greatly benefit Brown. Lastly, we cannot forget the rushing king in that backfield. Defenses will continue to stack the line against Henry, giving some major opportunity to Jones and Brown on the outside. Jones is much better than Davis, so defenses will have their hands full with that Tennessee offense. Don’t get me wrong, Metcalf is a freak of nature, and could very well end in the top-five this year, but the ceiling for Brown is just too high. I’ll take him all day. – Ralph Martinez (Lobo) @LobosFFDen

First of all, this exercise is like comparing Godfather and Goodfellas or best ball versus dynasty leagues. There are no wrong answers here, but there is a winner in my mind and that’s Brown. The guy is simply a monster playmaker. Do me a favor and go look at a list of the top 12 in total yards after the catch last year. You’ll see Brown ninth on that list which is good, but still 100+ yards behind the top guys. Until you look closely and see that Brown is the only player on that list with less than 125 targets (Brown had 106) and less than 87 catches (Brown had 70). Filter that list again and you will see that Brown had the third-highest average depth of target at 10.7 yards (only Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson were higher) and you begin to realize we are dealing with a player who is dominant at creating separation and pulling in balls down the field, and then an absolute nightmare to try and tackle in the open field. Throw in the addition of Jones who will attract more defense away from Brown, and this has the makings of a potential top-three year assuming the increase in targets for Brown. – Ryan Kirksey @KirkseySports

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