Fantasy Football ADP Faceoff: Josh Allen vs. Dak Prescott
Welcome to our latest in our series of collaborative articles from the FF Faceoff team. We will be running these weekly collaborative pieces on different content all off-season long. For this first piece, we’ll be taking a look at a couple of stud quarterbacks with a similar average draft position according to FantasyData with 2021 Fantasy Football ADP Faceoff: Josh Allen vs. Dak Prescott.
Josh Allen
QB2 – 35.1 ADP
Josh Allen is looking like the consensus number two quarterback just about anywhere you look heading into the 2021 fantasy football season, behind just Patrick Mahomes. He finished as the number two quarterback last year in fantasy and was fourth in points per game. He ended with 421 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on top of his 4,500+ passing yards. He’s racked up over 1,500 rushing yards in his first three seasons in the NFL.
Stefon Diggs has been an absolute stud since hooking up with Allen and will more than likely be great this year again. The rushing upside is something Allen will have an edge over Prescott, as well as most every other quarterback in the NFL outside of guys like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. With the recent news about Prescott potentially dealing with a shoulder issue, it just makes this decision that much easier for me to take Allen over him. – Aaron Schill @aaron_schill
Allen is an ascending top five or even top three quarterback talent in the league, and if not for an insane season from Aaron Rodgers, he would have easily taken the MVP last season. At Allen’s ADP, you have to be committed to him as you might be able to get Prescott at a more reasonable draft spot. However, Allen’s ceiling is higher than Prescott’s as his game has steadily improved each year in the league.
Depending on how you look at it, not having an All-Pro running back like Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield gives Allen more opportunities for rushing attempts, chances at rushing for touchdowns, and fantasy points in general. Other than the running back position, I’ll argue that Allen has the better overall offense, from play-caller to the offensive live.
The opportunity to get paid has to be in the discussion as well. Prescott just signed a massive contract and Allen is still waiting on his. Allen might be much more motivated to ensure his massive payday. Overall, if Allen is available in the right spot, I would much rather have him over Prescott. – Brendan O’Bryan @OBryanBren
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I just finished my redraft fantasy rankings the other day and my QB1 is not named Patrick Mahomes. It’s Josh Allen, and here’s why: He already showed incredible chemistry with Diggs last year and that connection will only get stronger.
Emmanuel Sanders is now in the field as another reliable target next to Cole Beasley. Gabriel Davis flashed potential and could make a name for himself this year, giving Allen yet another weapon in the passing game. The Bills did absolutely nothing at the running back position this off-season and are going to throw some underwhelming combo of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary out there.
So they should be a pass-centered offense once again, with Allen acting as a de facto goal-line back. With at least eight rushing touchdowns in three straight years, and 100+ attempts his past two full seasons, his legs are what will put him over Mahomes, not to mention Prescott, as the alpha QB for 2021. – Brandon Hamer @doublehfantasy1
Dak Prescott
QB2 – 53.4 ADP
Before an injury-shortened 2020 season, Dak Prescott’s passing attempts have gone up each year since he entered the league. His yards per attempt had also gone up each year since 2017 before his injury. Through his first three seasons, he mounted 14 game-winning drives, which is the most by any quarterback in that span since at least 1960.
So we know Prescott will have a boatload of pass attempts, can drive his team down the field late in the game, and has arguably the best trio (Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup) of pass-catchers since the Vikings (Chris Carter, Randy Moss, and Jake Reed) in 1998. I like Allen, but he doesn’t have the same multi-year resume as Prescott. – Ben Ditlevson @FFRabbitDad
Both Prescott and Allen have QB1 ceilings. However, I will give the edge to Prescott. The Bills have one of the better defenses in the NFL, especially when Matt Milano is on the field. The same cant be said for Dallas. The Cowboys’ defense will be an improved unit in 2021, but they are still a work in progress and will put the Dallas offense in situations in which they are playing within a negative game script and in shootouts.
This bodes well for Prescott’s fantasy value as does his slew of weapons and his offensive line that is returning healthy and intact. In addition to Prescott’s obvious passing upside, he also brings some punch as a rusher. Prescott has rushed for 277+ yards in 5/6 seasons and 3+ rushing touchdowns in all six years of his career, including three seasons with six scores on the ground. As long as Prescott and his supporting cast are healthy, he will compile a career year en route to an overall QB1 finish in 2021. – Anthony Cervino @TheRealNFLGuru
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Two of the most prolific quarterbacks heading into the 2021 fantasy football season are Allen and Prescott. Allen took a significant step forward in his development during 2020, finishing as the QB1 in 1/2-PPR formats due to a whopping 45 touchdowns, including eight as a ball carrier. The chemistry between him Stefon Diggs led to Allen’s first Pro-Bowl appearance, as the two connected for the most targets (166) and receptions (127) in the league last season.
Allen’s dual-threat ability creates extra incentive to use third-round draft capital to acquire him in redraft leagues, as he is currently being valued as the QB2 with a 35.1 ADP. However, Prescott is coming off of a gruesome ankle injury that limited him to just five games in 2020. He will be motivated to get back on the gridiron and continue making plays, as we all witnessed his QB2 finish in 2019 after throwing for 4,900+ yards without Lamb on the roster.
The return of Dallas Cowboys’ two-time All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith is a massive factor in keeping Prescott upright in a clean pocket, allowing him to read through progressions that will feature a plethora of weapons in the passing game, including a healthy Blake Jarwin at tight end and a more toned version of Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield.
For me, the edge goes to Prescott since he has a stronger supporting cast and his ADP of 53.1 allows fantasy managers to wait until the fifth round to land a top-three fantasy quarterback. Allen was the QB7 in 2019, so I fully expect him to remain within the top eight fantasy quarterbacks in 2021, even if he does slightly regress from the 6.5% touchdown rate he averaged in 2020.
Prescott is the better value as QB5 and has more offensive weapons to complement the 48.7% completion percentage he averaged on throws of 20 yards or more back in 2019. Since 2016, no quarterback has finished as the overall QB1 in consecutive seasons, meaning Allen is all but likely to slip outside of the top three. Draft Prescott two rounds later and you will be well on your way to a postseason berth in fantasy leagues in 2021. – Matt MacKay @Matt_MacKay_
Even with the strained muscle in his throwing shoulder, Prescott is my number one ranked quarterback headed into the 2021 season. Needless to say, this would mean that I prefer Prescott to the talented Josh Allen. When discussing Prescott, it is hard to avoid his numbers during the five games played last season.
What isn’t discussed as much as his passing numbers is what he did with his legs. In those five games played last year, Prescott had already matched his three rushing touchdowns from 2019. Between what they can do on the ground and through the air, Prescott and Allen are comparable, but I just have more faith in the Cowboys’ weapons. – Michael Hauff @theffrealist
There is no question that Prescott and Allen are two of the NFL’s premier quarterbacks. Allen is coming into 2021 having had his best year yet where he put up MVP-like numbers. Prescott is coming back from a gruesome injury that cut his 2020 season short. Who am I taking between the both of them?
Give me Prescott. I truly believe Allen remains in the top-10 and has a phenomenal year, but in fantasy football above all else, I look at consistency. Since entering the league in 2016, Dak has never completed less than 62% of his passes, never thrown for less than 3,300 yards, and has ended in the top 10 fantasy points for quarterbacks in 3/5 seasons. Additionally, Dallas has one of the best wide receiver groups in the NFL, and this greatly benefits Prescott. He has the potential to end as the QB1 overall in fantasy football for 2021. – Ralph Martinez “Lobo” @LobosFFDen
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