Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Outlook 2024: Safest Pick?
The 2024 fantasy football season is nearly here. While CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill are the top two wide receivers in most fantasy expert rankings, Amon-Ra St. Brown belongs in the conversation to be the first pass catcher to come off the board this year. While he lacks the flashy big-play upside of Lamb and Hill, the former USC star might have the safest floor in fantasy football among wide receivers.
St. Brown is the focal point of an elite Detroit Lions passing attack. The superstar receiver has had at least 90 receptions for 900 yards every year of his career. Furthermore, he has been outstanding since the end of his rookie season. St. Brown was the WR2, averaging 20.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over the final six weeks of his rookie year. He had more fantasy points than every wide receiver other than fantasy MVP Cooper Kupp during those six weeks.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Football Outlook
The former USC star is heading into his fourth season in the NFL. St. Brown signed a massive extension this offseason, paying him among the top wide receivers in the league. He is coming off the best year of his career, setting career-highs in receptions (119), targets (164), receiving yards (1,515) and touchdowns (10). Furthermore, the superstar was one of seven players with double-digit receiving scores despite his teammate, Sam LaPorta, also scoring 10 touchdowns last season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Football Outlook
Detroit managed to hold onto offensive coordinator Ben Johnson despite him being a hot head coaching candidate during the offseason. Furthermore, the Lions will have nearly the exact offensive unit as in 2023, with Josh Reynolds being the only meaningful contributor no longer with the team. Therefore, fantasy players should feel confident projecting St. Brown for similar numbers in 2024 that he had last year.
The superstar is the focal point of Detroit’s passing attack, earning a 27.9% target share and 30% target per route run rate last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Both numbers ranked in the top-six wide receivers with at least 25 targets in 2023. More importantly, St. Brown saw eight or more targets in 81.3% of the games over the past two seasons.
As expected, St. Brown sits towards the top of our latest fantasy football rankings.
Dynasty Football Outlook
Dynasty fantasy football players who drafted St. Brown in the second round of their rookie drafts a few years ago couldn’t be happier with the former USC star. While he isn’t in the mix to be the WR1 alongside Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Lamb because of his quarterback situation, St. Brown is in the conversation for the WR4 in dynasty rankings.
Many will move Marvin Harrison Jr. or Garrett Wilson ahead of him over the next few months. However, St. Brown has a far safer floor than either former Ohio State star.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Football Outlook: Final Thoughts
St. Brown is arguably the safest first-round pick in redraft leagues this year. The Lions will have one of the top offenses in the NFL again in 2024, with the superstar receiver leading the way. He has averaged 9.7 targets and 15.2 fantasy points per game since his rookie season despite not having an elite quarterback. St. Brown is the WR3 in my redraft rankings behind Lamb and Chase.
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