Best Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Drafting from the 1.12

So you’ve been unlucky enough to land the last overall pick in your fantasy football draft? As awful as that sounds, there are plenty of ways that this can play out in your favor. Today, I’ll be breaking down the best fantasy football draft strategy if you’re drafting from the 1.12.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Drafting from the 1.12

It’s the moment you’ve been waiting for all off-season. You’ve been in countless mock drafts picking anywhere from the 1.01, to the 1.06, to the 1.12, but this is the moment of truth. This is when your true pick is determined.

Whether it be an innocent duck race, a debaucherous gauntlet of libations, or another popular way to determine your draft order. The problem is your duck lost its buoyancy, and you bloat easily. Now you find yourself staring down the barrel of the dreaded 1.12. These tips will allow you to scrap the stress of picking last in the first round. More importantly, it will illustrate how to turn that final first-round pick into future treasure.

Best Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Rounds 1 & 2

1.12: Jonathan Taylor – RB – Indianapolis Colts

Possible Pivots: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs

In 2021 Jonathan Taylor finished as the overall RB1 in Fantasy Football averaging 21.9 PPR points per game as recorded by FantasyPros Weekly Fantasy Football Leaders (2021). Unfortunately, the Indianapolis Colts running back would be sidelined by an ankle sprain in 2022 requiring cleanup surgery later that year. This, coupled with Taylor’s hold out would keep the former Wisconsin, and 6th all-time college rusher from playing until Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season.

We must not forget how special Taylor was with a full season played. Taylor finished the 2021 season as the number-one ranked running back. He racked up 1,811 total rushing yards with PFF recording 1,272 of those yards coming AFTER CONTACT! To fully appreciate that stat understand that Derrick Henry ran for 1,167 total yards last year, and fantasy darling Kyren Williams ran for 1,167 total yards.

So, will Richardson take away some of the Taylor opportunities? In short, yes. However, that will help to spell the 25-year-old running back and keep him fresh. Zack Moss left to join the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Colts did not draft a rookie at the position in the 2024 NFL Draft. This tells me that Taylor is one of only a few true bell-cow running backs left in today’s NFL, and it’s time for him to reclaim his rightful throne as the number-one running back in the league.

Personally, I prefer to draft a running back with this pick because I know the value of the wide receiver positions to come in the following rounds. I also understand the value that I can get on running backs later in the draft.

2.01: Nico Collins – WR – Houston Texans

Possible Pivots: Marvin Harrison Jr., Puka Nacua

The third-year wide receiver, Nico Collins broke out in a huge way last year. He saw a 55.6% increase in average receiving yards per game. Additionally, he increased his avoided tackles per game by 20.4%. According to PFF, Collins would finish the season with a 72.2% catch rate while averaging 16.1 yards per reception.

Let’s put these numbers into perspective. As per PFF, Collins’ receiving numbers were comparable to, if not better than Amon-Ra St. Brown (74.2% catch rate – 12.7 y/rec), A.J. Brown (69.7% catch rate – 13.7 y/rec), and Justin Jefferson (69.4% catch rate – 15.8 y/rec); missed games accounted for. All three of these wide receivers are going long before Collins according to ADP.

“But they brought in Stefon Diggs.” Sure, and the numbers listed above came from a backfield that was just as crowded before Diggs’s arrival. Noah Brown and Robert Woods are no Diggs. However, is Diggs even the same fantasy football producer anymore?

As the number one wide receiver on one of the most high-powered teams in 2023, in a wide-open backfield, Diggs was only able to produce a 66.9% catch rate (5.6% lower than in 2022). Notably, with only 11.1 yards per reception, which was 2 yards less than his 2022 average. Collins’s quarterback, C.J. Stroud is being drafted with the belief that he is going to take the next step in 2024.

We need to keep that same energy when considering drafting Collins. Personally, I am smashing the draft button on him here with full faith that he will finish as a top wide receiver in 2024.

Best Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Rounds 3 & 4

It’s been a while since your last pick. Take advantage of that time and set your queue based on your tiers. Additionally, you should continue doing this after every turn. Tier-based drafting is super important when drafting on either turn. It allows you to plan ahead of positional runs. When you have multiple players who you are willing to draft you will have a fallback player in the chamber if you get sniped.

3.12: Deebo Samuel – WR – San Francisco 49ers

Acceptable Substitutions: DJ Moore, Cooper Kupp

Deebo Samuel is much more than just a wide receiver in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. He is a part-time running back, and a full-time weapon of chaos for opposing defenses. We all know that Samuel is a YAC monster averaging 9.5 career yards after the catch. His ground game is also menacing. As a wide receiver, he accumulated 37 carries for 225 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. All in all, we are talking about a player with a top-12 wide receiver upside and a definite WR2 floor.

Brandon Aiyuk may have re-signed, but he has missed the entire preseason. We have seen players who hold out take a while to get back into rhythm in basic offensive schemes. Imagine what it might take to get back into rhythm in a Shanahan offense. Not to mention, Shanahan has not hesitated to bench Aiyuk in the past when was showing up for work. Who knows what will happen this year? The truth is. Samuel is the definition of a “boom, or bust” wide receiver. This is evident in our Consistency Score, which is one of our free fantasy football tools.

Last year, Samuel finished as a top-12 wide receiver six times. Notably, he also finished as a wide receiver three on four occasions. One was Week 6 when he was pulled early due to injury. Ultimately, the highs outweigh the lows for me with Samuel. We already have Collins as our steady WR1. I like to be able to plug someone into my WR2 slot who can break any week.

4.01: Rachaad White – RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Acceptable Substitutions: Kenneth Walker III

According to FantasyPros ADP, the PPR machine that is Rachaad White is going as the 14th running back off of draft boards. You heard that right. Last year’s RB4 in PPR leagues is being drafted as an RB2. Why?! I understand that Tampa Bay drafted running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Given White’s usage in 2023, that says more about Sean Tucker, and the decline of Chase Edmonds, if you ask me.

People are worried that the Buccaneer’s new Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen won’t throw to the running back position as often as we saw White targeted in 2023. Maybe not, but Coen has never had a running back with hands as reliable as White’s. Coen’s last four running backs of note were Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, and Ray Davis (Kentucky). Akers, with a career 83% reception rate is the only one of that group that came close to White’s career average of 89.1%. The other three couldn’t even crack 79%.

PFF’s Captain Checkdown Article ranks the top 15 quarterbacks based on a percentage of total passing attempts vs. checkdowns. The Buccaneers quarterback, Baker Mayfield topped that list at 11.9%. Consider this heavily when presented with the opportunity to draft a possible top-12 running back in the fourth round of your fantasy football drafts.

Best Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Rounds 5 & 6

5.12: Rashee Rice – WR – Kansas City Chiefs

Acceptable Substitutions: I would not risk getting cute with this one, and here is why:

This may seem like a reach, but Rashee Rice is quickly moving up draft boards. His FantasyPros ADP of 70.6 is being widely ignored, and for good reason. Cody Benjamin of CBS reported on Thursday, August 29 that Rice would be available to take the field for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. They added that the Chiefs second-year wide receiver may not have to face any repercussions for the eight criminal charges looming over him until 2025.

Although Rice wouldn’t see double-digit targets until Week 12 of the 2023 season, all signs were pointing toward Head Coach Andy Reid finally finding his guy. In the weeks leading up to the Chiefs bye in Week 10, Rice was seeing less than a 50% snap share. That usage would increase to 75.3% coming out of the bye.

Notably, Rice’s rookie ratings from PFF include an 80.2 reception percentage, 11.4 yards per reception, and 8.1 average yards after the catch. Furthermore, Rice finished his rookie regular and postseason with 105 receptions for 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns.

Again, this may seem like a reach. In reality, if you want Rice on your squad, and you should want him on your squad, do not risk it. Take him on the 5-6 turn and be thrilled that you now have at least two wide receivers who are the WR1 for their respective teams.

6.01: Terry McLaurin – WR – Washington Commanders

Acceptable Substitutions: Amari Cooper

We have all but set our starting lineup except one flex, and our tight end. I prefer to start four wideouts in full PPR, especially if all four of them are the main targets on their team. We can tie a bow on that portion of the lineup by drafting the athletic anomaly that is Terry McLaurin.

Similar to pre-2023 D.J. Moore, McLaurin has been wasting away on the Washington Commanders roster like a Michelin star chef at a Golden Corral. Player Profiler reported that since 2021 McLaurin averaged only 4.5 touchdowns on an average of 1,570 air yards. Although he hates the stat, even our beloved Anthony Cervino (@therealNFLguru) would have to admit that poor quarterback play might have something to do with McLaurin’s lack of fantasy prowess in the past.

The Commanders franchise was purchased by Josh Harris in July of 2023. Since then, Harris has made it a priority to wash away the muck left by the previous regime. John Keim of ESPN reported that Harris once said that “owning a team is not about ego…you have to make it about winning.”

With the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Commanders drafted quarterback Jayden Daniels out of LSU. No one can doubt how much of a threat Daniels is on the ground, but that should not take away from what he was able to achieve through the air in his Heisman-winning year. Daniels threw for 3,811 yards at a clip of 11.5 yards per attempt. He would throw 40 touchdowns and only four interceptions, earning him a PFF passing grade of 92, and an overall offensive grade of 94.7.

With Daniels behind center, it is finally time to unleash McLaurin. Take a minute and realize that three of our f our starting wideouts are the odds-on favorite WR1 for their respective teams.

Best Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Rounds 7-9

Get a Top Quarterback: I have been able to draft Kyler Murray ENTIRELY too late in single-quarterback leagues. No matter how many times I mock draft on Sleeper, or draft a real team, Murray consistently falls into my lap between the sixth and the eighth round. Furthermore, the Arizona Cardinals drafted the 2023 Biletnikoff Award-winning Marvin Harrison Jr. who ESPN’s Mel Kiper compared to Calvin Johnson, and Cardinal’s legend Larry Fitzgerald in his pre-draft scouting report. They also have breakout tight end Trey McBride. Murray has the potential to finish as high as QB5, and you can grab him as late as the ninth quarterback off of the board.

Do Not Punt Tight End: Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys is the last of the tight ends that I feel comfortable drafting before that becomes a position that will end up being streamed week to week. Since 2019 a Cowboys tight end has finished as a TE1. Ferguson finished 2023 as the ninth-best tight end in PPR scoring with 101 receptions on 131 targets. Impressively, he scored 10 touchdowns on 1,062 yards. With the departure of wide receiver Michael Gallup, and the majority of the Cowboys wide receiver room, Ferguson may become the second receiving option behind CeeDee Lamb.

Secure Your Third Running Back: Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler not only share the same backfield for the Washington Commanders, but they also share similar red zone touchdowns per red zone attempt in 2023 (25%, and 22% respectively). Sometimes the eyes show you things that statistics cannot. Last year my eyes showed us a very different Ekeler than we were used to, but an even more explosive Robinson than we saw the year prior. PFF agreed by awarding Brian Robinson an offensive score of 75.3, and Ekeler only 60.2.

Combine that with the age difference. Notably, Ekeler is 29 while Brian Robinson is only 25. Not only will Robinson solidify himself as the lead back for the Washington Commanders 2024, but we could see a breakout season for the third-year running back. If the uncertainty of the Commander’s backfield is too much to stomach I would be more than happy to go with Tyjae Spears if he falls here. You can also reach for someone like Jerome Ford if you feel like our light approach to running backs demands drafting a player who should start the season with zero competition at the position.

Best Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Rounds 10-13

In addition to your full wide receiver room, you should have your starting quarterback and tight end by this point. If you do not have a quarterback or tight end? WHAT ARE YOU DOING?! All good. False alarm. For real. We can figure this out. Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert, or Aaron Rodgers should still be hanging around somewhere. If you are still without a tight end, I would suggest trying to pair T.J. Hockenson with someone the likes of Pat Freiermuth, Juwan Johnson, or maybe even Taysom Hill. Hopefully, you have both positions locked up going into the next four rounds because some great values are coming up.

Personally, I love drafting Khalil Shakir. He is a consensus must draft at his cost according to our FF Faceoff Live Show Team, and I couldn’t agree more. If you were in on Gabe Davis last year like I was, Shakir will be the salve to heal those wounds. After that, I would suggest hammering the running back position. There are a few categories to consider. You can lean on guys who are projected to have a hot start to the season due to their counterparts being injured like Jerome Ford if he is still around, or Chuba Hubbard.

You can also look to target running backs who could take over their backfield if their counterparts sustain an injury like Zach Charbonnet. I prefer to target players who will have stand-alone value like Jaleel McLaughlin who happens to be one of my 2024 breakout candidates. Don’t take my word for it, check out what Scott Barret of Fantasy Points had to say about the sophomore running back.

In his 18-year history as an NFL head coach, Sean Payton‘s RB2 (RB who *did not* lead backfield in carries) has averaged >16.5 FPG five times. (For perspective, Travis Etienne ranked as the RB7 last year with 16.4 FPG.) Collectively across all 18 seasons, Payton’s RB2 averages…

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 30, 2024

Best Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Final Thoughts

Please do your blood pressure, and my comments a favor and remember that none of what I shared in this article should be taken as gospel. You can do as many mock drafts against computers, and as many Underdog Fantasy Drafts against real people as you want. At the end of the day, people gonna people, and no drat is exactly the same. That is why it is important to remember these four things when going into your drafts this year:

• Fantasy football is meant to be a fun escape from life’s stressors. Keep it that way for you and your league-mates.
• Use ADP as a guideline to build your customized tiers and draft accordingly.
• Remember that everyone gets sniped, and that is why it is important to set an organized queue of players you are willing to draft at certain spots determined by your tiers.
• Set your queue between turns. You should be planning for two rounds ahead of the round that you are in.
• Allow the draft to come to you, but do not be afraid to, within reason, reach for your players.

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