The fantasy football community has been salivating over Bijan Robinson for years but is he the dynasty RB1? In this article, I’ll be breaking down the fantasy football outlook for the rookie running back. Specifically, for dynasty fantasy football purposes. Should he be the RB1 overall in dynasty leagues before the NFL Draft and 2023 season are even here? You better believe it.

Bijan Robinson’s College Years

First off, Robinson is the best running back prospect we’ve seen in years. Now, he is forgoing his senior year at Texas to enter the 2023 NFL Draft. As a Longhorn, Robinson has compiled 3,410 rushing yards on 539 attempts with 33 touchdowns. Additionally, he added 60 receptions for 805 receiving yards and an additional 8 touchdowns over his college career. Ultimately, Robinson won the Doak Walker Award, for the best running back in college football in his final year, racking up over 1,800 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns.  

Not only does he rack up the stats, but Robinson also puts on a display when you turn on the film. Robinson has a unique ability to shed tackles as defenders seem to just bounce off of him. At 215 pounds on a 5’11 frame, he has the power to run through defenders. On top of that, he also has the lateral agility and quickness to make would-be tacklers catch nothing but air. 

Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

For dynasty football, the most appealing trait displayed is Robinson’s use in the passing game. With PPR (Point per Reception) leagues quickly becoming the norm in dynasty leagues, pass-catching backs receive an added bonus. Needless to say, Robinson is one of the best in this class. Texas would bring him out of the backfield where he would run routes and show smooth confident hands that would rival some wide receiver prospects.

The only knock on Robinson’s profile is a lack of long speed. He responded to that negativity with a solid 4.46-second 40-yard dash. He will most likely never be a burner in the NFL but he does have the speed to break big runs -in college, his longest rush in each season was over 60 yards. Additionally, he could also use a little bit of refinement in pass protection but from a fantasy football standpoint, you would rather have him out on pass routes versus pass protection anyways.

College production, check. Film study, check. Draft capital? The NFL Draft will decide a lot of young men’s futures and Robinson will likely be one of the first 32 names called on Thursday, April 27th. NFL Mock Drafts have Robinson going as high as a top-10 pick or involve teams trading up to get this rock-solid running back prospect. There is very little possibility that any other back comes off the board before Bijan Robinson. So, draft capital, another resounding check! 

All of this should confirm Robinson as the RB1 and the first overall pick in all dynasty fantasy football drafts. But is he already the best running back in the league without even taking a snap? Yes, yes he is! And it doesn’t matter where he goes on draft night. 

First, let’s look at who else are the top dynasty running backs (sorted by last year’s median points per game).

Top Dynasty Running Backs

This ordering provides a nice split between the two groups of backs that make up most top-10 dynasty running back rankings. The first group is the elder statesmen. They are and have been crushing it for your fantasy teams. However, they are all on their second contracts.

Some data suggests running backs in their second contract are not as valuable in dynasty leagues as their first contract counterparts. Furthermore, aside from Josh Jacobs, they are all within a year or beyond the running back age cliff of 27 years old. Once running backs hit their 27th age they typically have stopped ascending and will begin a descent in fantasy points scored. These elder statesmen may outscore Robinson in year one but the longevity is on the rookie’s side. 

The other group consists of rushers still on their first contract. However, injuries have derailed many of them. Travis Etienne lost an entire season to a Lisfranc injury. Jonathan Taylor only played 11 games last year because of ankle issues. Hall looked great even on a dismal New York Jets offense but his season was cut short due to an ACL and meniscus tear.

Walker looks to be the leader of the Seahawks’ rushing attack but is just not as good of an offensive weapon as Bijan Robinson. In fact, Robinson is probably a better weapon and prospect than all of these options except for Jonathan Taylor whose Colts are diminishing his fantasy returns. 

The Dynasty RB1

Despite where Robinson is drafted he will make an immediate impact. Even if he is drafted by the same team with one of the backs in the chart above, Robinson either takes over immediately or will in a year when their contracts are up. However, the likelihood that any of these teams pick Robinson up with one of those guys already on the squad is very slim.

Robinson could get drafted early on a team that was bad in 2022. If that’s the case he immediately becomes the focal point of the offense. However, if he is drafted in the middle to end of the first round or a team trades up to get him, it can be expected that the team is more assembled. Overall, that should lead to more efficient work for the rookie running back. 

It can be uneasy to put a rookie as the number one running back in dynasty leagues, but Robinson possesses a unique situation in front of him. He is a phenomenal talent and prospect both analytically and on tape. Furthermore, he is entering the league during a passing of the guard from the dominant backs that people will be looking to sell in dynasty leagues. Ultimately, where he gets drafted will present opportunities for him to have immediate fantasy football success regardless of who is meeting him at the podium. 

These should ease any wary ranker’s mind because it’s easy to see why Bijan Robinson is the Dynasty RB1.

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