Chase Brown – 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Running Back – Illinois
5’10” 209 lbs
5th Round – 28th Pick (163rd Overall) – Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown started his career at Western Michigan, totaling 71 rushing attempts for 352 yards and zero touchdowns as a freshman. Brown then transferred to Illinois before the start of the 2019 season to play with his twin brother, Sydney. However, the young running back only had three rushing attempts all season.
Brown earned more of a role in 2020, totaling 104 rushing attempts for 540 yards and three touchdowns in eight games. He averaged 5.2 yards per rushing attempt that year. More importantly, the former Fighting Illini had a breakout season in 2021.
The young running had 170 rushing attempts for 1,005 yards and five touchdowns that year, averaging almost six yards per rushing attempt. However, Brown returned to Illinois in 2022 and had a career year, totaling 328 rushing attempts for 1,643 yards and 10 touchdowns. Additionally, he had 27 receptions for 240 yards and three touchdowns last year.
Not only did Brown have a career year in 2022, but the former Fighting Illini ranked among the best in college football. He finished first in the Big 10 and second in the country in rushing attempts. Furthermore, Brown had the fourth most rushing yards and the third most scrimmage yards in college football. Overall, his skillset could potentially translate to the NFL, but expectations should be tempered.
Fantasy Football Outlook
Despite being a fifth-round pick, Brown was the 10th running back drafted. Meanwhile, his twin brother was a third-round pick by the Philadelphia Eagles.
While he was a mid-Day 3 selection, Brown landed in an excellent spot with the Bengals. Joe Mixon was the RB12 last year, averaging 15 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite missing three contests. However, the veteran running scored 25.4% of his fantasy points and 55.6% of his touchdowns in the Week 9 matchup against the Carolina Panthers.
That means the former Oklahoma star running back averaged only 12 fantasy points per game and had only four touchdowns in the other 13 games. More importantly, he played fewer than 60% of the snaps in all but one of the final seven games last season. Cincinnati decided to more evenly split the backfield between Mixon and Samaje Perine to end the year.
However, Perine signed with the Denver Broncos this offseason, leaving the Bengals was a lack of depth at the running back position. Yet the team didn’t sign a veteran in free agency. Furthermore, the only addition they made this offseason was drafting Brown.
Last year Perine was the RB37, averaging 7.7 fantasy points per game, a career-high. Furthermore, he scored 13 or more fantasy points in a quarter of the games. More importantly, the veteran running back was one of the top handcuffs last season.
Perine averaged 18 touches and 22.8 fantasy points per game in the two contests he started for an injured Mixon. With the veteran running back in Denver, Brown will take over as the No. 2 guy in Cincinnati.
Dynasty Outlook
Brown will likely never turn into a fantasy football star. Furthermore, there is a chance he gets replaced next year since the team only invested a fifth-round pick in the running back. However, the former Fighting Illini has immediate fantasy value, especially for dynasty fantasy football players with Mixon on their roster.
The rookie running back is already one of the top handcuffs in fantasy football. Furthermore, he could cut into Mixon’s workload like Perine did last season. Moreover, the veteran running had only six breakaway runs and a 2.8% breakaway run rate in 2022. If he struggles to make big plays again this year, Brown could force the Bengals to make this backfield a 50-50 split.
Fantasy players should feel confident using a third-round rookie draft pick on Brown. Furthermore, those with Mixon on their roster shouldn’t be afraid to use a late second-round selection on the rookie running back.
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