Consistency Corner: Week 2
It’s official. Football is back and Week 1 did not disappoint. The season has barely begun and we’ve already had down to the wire nail-biters and big-time upsets! But this is fantasy and a new week is about to start, so we need to chill. Did your players wet the proverbial bed? Perhaps injury has already rocked your roster? Or maybe you’re riding high from thoroughly trampling your opponent. Either way, it’s time to strip away the emotion from Week 1 and get ready for a new matchup. Let’s dig into the data in this Consistency Corner: Week 2.
*Disclaimer – I like to have a minimum of four full weeks for Consistency Score data. So to start a new season I use data from last year and add in the data for this year. After the Week 4 games, it will be purely from the 2021-2022 season. But that is why you will not see any rookies here. Yet. It’s also why there will be a few holdovers from players who played last season but haven’t yet in 2021.
What is the Consistency Score?
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
Risers
Jalen Hurts – 16 to 6
With an impressive Week 1 performance Jalen Hurts is showing why fantasy “truthers” were excited for a full season under center. 264 yards passing, three passing touchdowns, and 62 more yards on the ground against Atlanta was good for 28.76 fantasy points and a top-five finish at the position for the week. It also buoyed his average fantasy points per game to 26.11 since Week 14 last year, when he took over the starting role, bouncing him right up to sixth in CS ranking. And this wasn’t even close to his most impressive rushing performance.
Whether or not Hurts truly belongs in the upper echelon of fantasy football quarterbacks might be clear to us after Week 2 when they host the San Fransisco 49ers who rank 31st in D-PAC against the QB position and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to the position.
Adam Thielen – 16 to 9
Few receivers with 900+ yards and double-digit touchdowns (14) with 100+ targets from the year prior have been scorned like Adam Thielen was via the fantasy football community this past offseason. The debate between if he was “washed” or still had a good season or two just got more and more heated as the dog days of summer went on.
With 10 targets, 92 yards receiving, and two touchdowns, maybe the haters will admit that the 31-year-old receiver might still be a huge asset to any fantasy roster. His 25.7 fantasy points in 1/2 PPR scoring formats was fourth-best among all receivers and helped raise his CS over half a point.
The Cardinals will be a problem this upcoming week. After one week, they are currently sitting as the 30th ranked D-PAC score against receivers and 31st in points allowed since Week 12 last year.
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Fallers
James Robinson – 6 to 12
This is a red alert situation. Not only did the Jacksonville Jaguars just simply not look good, but James Robinson split total running back opportunities with Carlos Hyde 50/50 with 11 each. The saving grace is that Robinson was on the field for 64% of the offensive snaps, compared to Hyde’s 34%, and Robinson saw six passing targets compared to Hyde’s two. Since the team is likely in a lot of negative game scripts moving forward, that should tip the scales slightly in Robinson’s favor. But Hyde getting four more rushing attempts than Robinson is still nothing fantasy managers wanted to see.
The measly 6.9 fantasy points scored in Week 1 represents a new floor for Robinson, dropping his CS 1.61 points. If this backfield continues to be split both Robinson’s and Hyde’s CS are going to bottom out. The value from the Jaguars came from volume in 2020. If these two backs have to split that volume, they may be consistent, but by no means helpful to your rosters.
Chase Claypool – 20 to 40
Chase Claypool ended 2020 in a fantasy slump and unfortunately is carrying that through to start 2021. Claypool’s paltry 8.5 fantasy points in Week 1 ranked 54th among all receivers. This lowers his CS from 4.52 to 3.00, a full point and a half lower, and plummets his ranking 20 spots.
With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson also entrenched in this offense, there might just be too many options for any one of them to really be consistent assets. And that’s especially going to be difficult for Claypool who was third among Pittsburgh receivers in terms of offensive snaps, only 67.2%, and targets (five). To be considered in standard-sized leagues, Claypool is going to have to be hyper-efficient with every target he gets.
Stream of the Week
Whoever the Houston Texans starting tight end is
Pharaoh Brown would be the preferred target here and he’s rostered in 0% of leagues on Sleeper, but Jordan Akins who is only rostered 1% of leagues is a good pivot if Brown is out (shoulder/ankle) for Sunday.
We’ve seen in the past Tyrod Taylor focus in on the tight end position before in his tenure with Buffalo. And in Week 1 Brown was second in targets, behind only Brandin Cooks. This week, Brown and company visit Cleveland to face the Browns who host the highest D-PAC score against tight ends, 8.11. They are also allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position over the last six fantasy-relevant games (I don’t use Week 17 for calculating CS or D-PAC).
Again, if Pharaoh Brown, who was on the field for 75.6% of offensive snaps last weekend, is ruled out for Week 2, Jordan Akins would be the next best bet in this offense. He saw 60.3% of snaps last week and is also known more as a pass-catcher than a blocking tight end.
Did you like this piece? Disagree? Drop me a line and let me know @DumpsterDiveFF and go ahead and follow for more fantasy football nuggets & all things Consistency Score related!
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