DraftKings Week 4 Bargain Plays and DFS Values

DraftKings is making it harder on us as we lose a lot of our stars from the main slate. A quick overview I noticed this week is that you will want to pay up for the quarterback position and build off of that. Before I break down all of our picks, here are the most notable scoring rules for DraftKings contests: Full-point PPR, four-point passing TD’s, three-point bonuses for 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing. Along with having a $50,000 budget to build a complete lineup. 

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Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence ($5,700)

It’s hard to believe that the Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-1 and are in first place in the AFC South. The breakout in Trevor Lawrence is in full swing and I see it continuing against the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. The second-year quarterback has been improving every week and I don’t see it slowing down. We were a little nervous about Lawrence against the Los Angeles Chargers, but they demolished them 38-10. I’m going back to battle with him. Lawrence is one of two quarterbacks this season to have 5+ touchdowns and one or fewer interceptions. The other quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. He’s the real deal folks, so enjoy the ride before he’s well over the $6k mark.

Matt Ryan ($5,600)

We go to the other side of the ball here with the Indianapolis Colts and Matt Ryan. The Colts are getting back on track after a 20-17 win over the Kansas City Chiefs to bring their record to 1-1-1. To start the season Matt Ryan has thrown more interceptions (4) than he has touchdowns (3). Furthermore, Ryan needs to get a better grip on the ball and not fumble it too. Week 3 was a good game for Ryan as he didn’t throw any interceptions. 

This week, the Colts are up against the Tennessee Titans who are 29th against the quarterbacks and rank as a bottom-end defense. Overall, the Titans have given up 27.83 points to quarterbacks, with 32.7 of that average going to Josh Allen. Remove Allen’s game and we’re looking at a 20.7 average. With the Colts’ offense starting to wake up, expect Ryan to have a great match based on value. Anything over 22.4 points this week is 4X value for Ryan and I think he can do it as this offense is on the up and up.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne Jr. ($5,400)

Going back to the well on this one, but I just can’t quit Travis Etienne Jr., yet. Since the beginning of the season, his carry total has been going up. Is it because he missed all of last season and this is more of his rookie season? It’s a hard question for me to answer, but I want to say they are slowly unleashing him. I expect the Jaguars to be trailing in this game, helping Etienne more as a pass catcher than a rusher. Yes, he and James Robinson have similar target shares. Although Etienne had 16 touches compared to Robinson’s 20. I see the backfield splitting still but for $1,000 cheaper we could see Etienne hit pay dirt for the first time.

Breece Hall ($5,400)

While this New York Jets backfield continues to be a 50/50 split, the breakout game for Breece Hall is coming. After seeing 11 targets in Week 3, Hall is up to 21 targets on the season. Hall could have had a breakout game here but dropped what could have been a touchdown as there was nothing but green grass in front of him. The Steelers rush and pass defense for that much has been bad with T.J. Watt being sidelined. Pittsburgh has been a matchup for running backs to have good games with. Joe Mixon, Damien Harris, and most recently Nick Chubb have had their way with the Steelers this season. It’s Hall’s turn to show why he was the first running back drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Rashaad Penny ($4,900)

Immediately seeing Rashaad Penny on this list of “bargain bin plays” probably has you questioning me in general. Penny is on a bottom-5 offense, is no receiving threat, and has yet to score a touchdown. Let’s also not forget he’s averaging 6 points per contest. Gross.

Yeah, it doesn’t look so good for Penny right now but if I told you the Lions have given up 428 rushing yards would you believe me? Believe it. The Philadelphia Eagles had 216 of those rushing yards and recently Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison combined for 124 yards. If you’re looking for a cheap RB2 this week with low ownership, Penny is your guy this week.

Wide Receivers

Tyler Lockett ($5,900)

After a mediocre game in Week 1, Tyler Lockett has now had back-to-back games with double-digit targets and 70+ receiving yards. I would expect Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah to be on D.K. Metcalf, who has shut down DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, and most recently Justin Jefferson. That leaves cornerback Amani Oruwariye to guard Lockett. If you don’t know who Oruwariye is, I’ll just say he was PFF’s lowest-graded Lion on defense. Lions head coach Dan Campbell thinks Oruwariye snaps out of it, but it won’t be this week. Get Lockett into every lineup you can, he’s going to eat again.

DeVonta Smith ($5,800)

You have to go back to the well on DeVonta Smith this week. Smith has seen his targets increase each week along with last week’s blow-up of eight receptions (12 targets) for 169 yards and a touchdown against the Washington Commanders. This week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, I’m not scared after the Jaguar’s blowout win against the Los Angeles Chargers. The 38-10 score was bad for the Chargers, but the wide receiver box score was good. Outside of Mike Williams, the other receivers had a pretty good game, including Josh Palmer‘s 6/99 stat line. Jacksonville’s defenses will have a hard time keeping down Jalen Hurts and this receiving core. Good luck shutting them down, as I see another big game coming Smith’s way.

D.J. Moore ($5,300)

It pains me how bad D.J. Moore has been, but he led the Panthers in targets (six) for what it’s worth. He’s been no worse than second in targets with Matt Rhule’s anemic offense. The Cardinals are a middle-of-the-pack defense that held both Cooper Kupp to 44 receiving yards and Davonte Adams to 12 receiving yards. It throws a red flag up as passing on Moore again this week as he’s been a total bust so far this season. With getting six targets every game so far this season, I see a Moore game that bounces back to where we see flashes of the WR1 that we were all hoping to have this season. There’s no denying he’s a bargain in DFS at this point.

Romeo Doubs ($4,500)

For the first time, a rookie wide receiver served as Aaron Rodgers WR1. Romeo Doubs caught all eight of his targets for 73 yards and a touchdown. It was amazing how much faith Rodgers had in Doubs even with Allen Lazard on the field who was third in targets (six) on the team. Doubs will look to continue to the start of his hot streak, and adding him to a very top-heavy stack is a must. 

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson ($4,100)

Outside of a Week 3 touchdown, T.J. Hockenson has been far from an elite player averaging 8.1 points per contest. He had 10.8 points last week, thanks to his day only being saved by a touchdown. On average the Seahawks have been giving up 4.67 catches for 77.3 yards, but only one touchdown. That touchdown was to Kyle Pitts. The benefit to playing Hockenson this weekend is with D’Andre Swift looking to be out, he should benefit with the dump-offs. If Hockenson can’t do it in this game, then he is looking more like a bust and just a guy (JAG).

David Njoku ($3,700)

The breakout is here and if you’ve been following me on Twitter, you would have read many times how David Njoku was one of my favorite late-round targets. After nine receptions (10 targets), 89 yards, and a touchdown, Njoku finally is showing a glimpse of why the Browns gave him a four-year, $54.75M contract. Atlanta ranks 31st against the tight end position and gave up 7/71 to Tyler Higbee a couple of weeks ago. This is no Rams offense, but Njoku is looking more like the second option for Jacoby Brissett and I’m here for it. Roll with Njoku as a bargain play of the week. 

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