Dynasty Fantasy Football – Running Backs to Sell
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Whether you are undefeated or winless there are always opportunities to improve your roster in dynasty fantasy football leagues. I like to make my roster decisions based on a three-year window. Buying and selling players is based on how you view your team. Is your team able to compete for a championship within three years or are you rebuilding and playing for the future? It’s important to view your dynasty team through this context. You are trying to win now and for years to come but sometimes because of injuries and other factors it’s just not possible.
Considering how good the 2023 rookie draft class is projected to be, it’s not a bad idea to trade off some aging assets for draft picks. I am going to discuss five running backs who I’m looking to sell in your dynasty fantasy football leagues.
Jamaal Williams
53rd ranked RB via FantasyPros Dynasty ADP
Jamaal Williams is coming off a huge game in Week 4 starting in place of the injured D’Andre Swift. He had 19 carries for 108 yards and two touchdowns. This is a great time to put him on your trade block. Williams has never had a 1,000-yard rushing season and his career high is 601 yards last season. He’s already got six touchdowns in just four games this season, even with Swift active and producing in the first three games.
Williams is due for major touchdown regression, especially once Swift is back and continues to take over this backfield. He had three in 13 games last season. Williams is going to have a spike in value for the next few weeks while Swift recovers from his shoulder injury. I would try and trade him before Swift is back which could be Week 7.
Melvin Gordon
44th ranked RB via FantasyPros ADP
With the unfortunate news that Javonte Williams is going to be lost for the season, Melvin Gordon will become the featured back in Denver. This is the perfect time to sell your shares in dynasty leagues to a competitor. He has four seasons of over 900 rushing yards including a career-high 1,105 yards rushing with 12 total touchdowns in 2017.
Gordon will be solid for the rest of this season, but he’s on the downside of his career at age 29. This season, he has 37 carries for 139 yards and one touchdown. He has added eight receptions for 49 yards in the air. While he will get the majority of touches, I believe Mike Boone will factor in as well. I would reach out to the Williams manager to see if they are interested. If not, put him on the trade block.
Ezekiel Elliott
32nd ranked RB via FantasyPros ADP
Ezekiel Elliott has been an elite running back ever since his rookie season back in 2016. That season, he rushed for a career-high 1.631 yards and 16 total touchdowns. He has three seasons with over 300 carries and six straight seasons with at least 979 yards rushing and had 1,650 career carries coming into this season.
Elliott has been a workhorse since his days at Ohio State. He’s 27 and I think the decline will be quick with Elliott. He’s losing touches to Tony Pollard as he did last season and honestly, Pollard looks better oftentimes as well. Now would be a good time to cash in on Elliott in your dynasty fantasy football leagues. I might hold in situations where I think I can win in the next two years as he will still be fairly productive. He’s a player to sell high if you can, but if you’re not getting enough of a return, hold him.
Derrick Henry
14th ranked RB via FantasyPros Dynasty ADP
This one is going to be a little controversial. I wouldn’t recommend trading Derrick Henry if you are competing for a championship this season or next. If you are rebuilding, it’s time to trade Henry. My biggest concern with Henry is his age and his career workload. He has had a heavy workload since Alabama. He has 1,477 career NFL carries and three career 1,000+ yard rushing seasons including a career-high 2,027-yard rushing season with 17 touchdowns back in 2020. He only played in eight games last season due to injury. I would be surprised if he plays a full season this year.
I’d rather sell him now while his value is still high than wait another year or two while his production declines. Whether or not you decide to sell these running backs is up to you. Each team situation is unique. Even if your team is 0-4, there is still a slight chance you could make the playoffs. Remember this is dynasty, so focus on the future as well as trying to win now.
Dalvin Cook
11th ranked RB via FantasyPros Dynasty ADP
If you are rebuilding, Dalvin Cook is someone I would be looking to deal. I think he’s going to be good for two or three more years. My main concern with Cook is durability as he has missed 13 games in the past four years and now is dealing with a shoulder injury already this season. Chances are he will not play a full season in 2022. He has had three straight seasons with at least 1,135 yards rushing and has added 131 receptions for 1,104 and 36 total touchdowns. He’s been really good when he’s been healthy. He’s only 27 so I believe you could still get something good for him.
Whether or not you decide to trade any of these five running backs is up to you. Even if your team is 0-4 there is still an outside chance you could make the playoffs. I usually start trading running backs by age 28 or 29 at the latest. I’d rather be a year or two early than a year late on some of these running backs in dynasty leagues, as things can change very quickly in the landscape, especially at the running back position.
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