Dynasty fantasy football is a game of high hopes and asset management. It seemingly boils itself down to insufficient numbers and heartbreak. Does this sound familiar? My goal here is to help change your outlook on the format and, more importantly, improve your results. I’ll break down some strategies and advice for you as you head into your dynasty Superflex drafts. 

For the remainder of this article, I will be assuming that your league has each of the following settings. 12 teams of which six make the playoffs, a Superflex position, lineups requiring nine starters, and PPR scoring with four points for passing touchdowns.

First, we are going to identify what mark you are trying to exceed week in and week out. We can do that by identifying what the average team looks like at each position from top to bottom. In 2022, the top 12 quarterbacks averaged a score of 19.5 points per game. For the top 24 running backs, each of these players produced an aggregate of 15.1 points, regarding the top 24 wide receivers. Additionally, the points per game came out to be 16.4. When it comes to the tight end position, 11.4 was the average output of the top 12 finishers.

Considering the remaining 24 skill players not included in the previous positions in both Flex spots. 14.4 was the number of points you could have expected to score in these slots. As for the format defining the position. The Superflex spot. Only the remaining 12 quarterbacks qualified to be in the sample, bringing up an average of 15.5 points. These findings assume you pick the right guys every week and none of your players get hurt. Continue reading for my advice on dominating your dynasty Superflex drafts. 

Average Points per Game

Quarterback: 19.5
Running Backs 1 and 2: 15.1
Wide Receivers 1 and 2: 16.4
Tight End: 11.4
Flex (RB/WR/TE) 1 and 2: 14.4
Superflex (QB/RB/WR/TE): 15.5
Total: 138.4

How to Approach the Format

This is your competition, you are trying to beat this team of averages. If you can consistently get in the win column against this phantom team you have taken control of every aspect of a weekly matchup that you can, your lineup. Furthermore, the powers that be within fantasy, off weeks by your players, a difficult schedule, and injuries at key positions are all luck-based outcomes.

Ultimately, your job is to mitigate as many of these risks as possible. Then we leave the rest up to chance as there is little else you can do. How do you mitigate these risks and begin winning against the aggregate you may ask? Well, let us identify the key advantages you can get within your lineup in order of priority.

Elite Quarterbacks

The blue-chip investments of the format, having two of these guys that you can rely on weekly is a massive step in the right direction. At the peak, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts were the premier producers for the 2022 season. They generated well above the mark set by their contemporaries (19.5) by scoring 24.3, 22.7, and 24.6 points per game. That gives you an additional 3 points every week. Getting one of these foundational assets on your roster inches you closer to achieving your goal. Not to mention, the long-term stability these franchise players ensure for your dynasty teams. 

Other key players that you can acquire just below that range include Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. They both scored just above the mark set for the 2022 season. If you cannot acquire any of the previous players, I would highly recommend going after former rookie of the year Justin Herbert.

Herbert’s 2022 season was marred by injury as he suffered from a rib cartilage fracture that occurred late in their September. It was in the matchup against the Chiefs and he recently underwent surgery to repair an unreported torn labrum in his left shoulder. The case for Herbert is that in the season prior, at the age of 23, he was coming off of his excellent rookie campaign. Then with a roaring 22.1 points per game, good for a second-place finish at the position on the year.

With the recent hiring of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator, a play-caller known for his fast tempo gives this young star a runway for a bounce-back season in 2023. Buy him if you can. Enough with the sexy names and foundational pieces, let’s get into the framing.

Top 36 Wide Receivers

As previously shown, the top 24 wide receivers outscore the top 24 running backs by 1.3 points per game on average. When the next 12 receivers are brought into the equation, however, the playing field becomes equal. You see a typical top 36 finish at the position coming out to 15.1 points.

This is the knowledge you need to apply when approaching how you build your roster. You want to have enough wide receivers to fill not just your dedicated slots, but also your Flex spots. With that, it gives you an advantage over those dipping into other pools of assets for Flex players.

Additionally, when making a decision between two players, a running back and a wide receiver, the tiebreaker goes to the wide receiver. Not only because they raise your points floor on your team, but because they have a longer shelf life on the open market and in your lineups.

Players in the top-36 range that I would target within your league markets are the receivers who have gotten “boring” within the eyes of the consensus. This might be because they haven’t turned into the reincarnation of Jerry Rice by the age of 25. Three names that I would personally recommend are Christian Kirk, Mike Williams, and Amari Cooper. All of which are financially tied to their teams for the immediate future.

To put it bluntly, today’s rules are slated more toward the benefit of the players involved in the passing game. With that said, let’s go over the worst position in all of fantasy, the tight end. 

Elite Tight Ends

11.4, that is all you could ask for out of your contributors at this position last season. That was just points less than the average Flex play. If you can find an asset that can match this mark you will scrape by. However, the names within this range are often given more appeal in the offseason with the label of “top-10 upside”. The player who most recently finished tenth scored a scorching 9.4 points per game, it’s almost meaningless to finish within the back half of the top 12.

On the other hand, where you can truly find an edge is to find a finish within the top four. Travis Kelce, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and Mark Andrews, 2022 only these players broke the 11.4 mark by more than half a point. In fact, they all beat the mark by an entire point with average outputs of 18.5, 13.3, 12.6, and 12.6 respectively. For dynasty and for redraft purposes, we all know Kelce is a cheat code. He brings to the table seven entire points more than the typical performance. However, considering that we are playing dynasty I cannot advise buying him in good faith. That is unless you are within a contention window already and can get him for a good price. 

What I can advise, however, is buying into perceived ambiguity. These opportunities present themselves in Kittle and Andrews. Both of which have unclear futures for the quarterbacks on their teams. Furthermore, they both have proven to be productive in spite of who their quarterback actually is.

Andrews is the safer option for dynasty, considering his age and lack of an injury history. That being said, Kittle may prove to be a far cheaper option. It’s best to assess which player in your league will be the cheapest and the most beneficial to acquire.

If none of that worked, then deploy a platoon of cheap matchup-based plays and high upside swings. Targets within this range include Noah Fant, Hunter Henry, and Tyler Higbee. Having a few tight ends like this isn’t bad, then playing them based on the best matchup. 

For the home run swings, you are looking at athleticism and a projected path to playing time. Some names I would target within these criteria are Mike Gesicki, Jake Ferguson, David Njoku, and Albert Okwuegbunam. All of which have familiar enough names to have market value once they start producing. Now for the icing on top of the cake, the running back.

High-End Running Backs

A true fall from grace, this running back position was once viewed as the cornerstone of fantasy football, led by Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott. Fast forward a few years and front offices are more likely to pay pennies on the dollar for a committee of running backs. Three specialists can be deployed in a committee and it’s hurting the breed of bell cow running backs. 

For fantasy purposes, there is still value in having a high-end running back. There’s just really not as much as there once was. Furthermore, there’s certainly not as much security and part of that is due to the lengthened season. Now there are more chances for one of those pesky uncontrollable variables to kick in, such as injuries.

When you buy into a top running back, you are buying into the inherent risk. You should only do so when the rest of your team is defeating the average handily. Luckily the market is beginning to catch up to this idea as some of the top producers begin to age. That being said, some players that I’m willing to buy into that the general dynasty market is starting to sour on include names that you know.

Names like Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffery, and Austin Ekeler all finished with 3 points more than the typical finish of a top-24 running back this previous season. Luckily, all of them have the job security to repeat their performances in the immediate future.

If you do not have access to these backs, then avoid paying above market price for subpar results. Buy into as many good profiles as you can, as the position is more opportunity based than any other and prone to injury. Taking as many shots on backups as you can brings the broadest range of outcomes to fall within. Thus, increasing your chances of hitting on the next Jerick McKinnon, D’onta Foreman, or Zonovan Knight.

Players in this target range that can be had for next to nothing include Rashaad Penny, Samaje Perine, and future 3rd/4th round rookie picks. As I mentioned earlier, the NFL is beginning to devalue the position more and more, while also giving opportunities to more players in committee roles.

With your late-round rookie picks you should be targeting attractive profiles. Don’t be afraid to buy in when they land in spots perceived as bad or cloudy by the consensus. Aiming for this range has its misses, but missing is the nature of fantasy football. When you hit though, you might lan an Isaiah Pacheco or a Khalil Hebert.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, dynasty fantasy football is a fickle and unforgiving game of odds. There are countless details we can never even begin to comprehend, much less account for when making lineup decisions. However, what we can do is identify our own deficits against the mean. Overall, our goal is to defeat this mean, and control as much of the game as we can.

The goal is to do everything in your power to set yourself up to win. After that, there’s not much left except for letting the winds of fate (hopefully) carry you to the fantasy football playoffs. If you have any questions or suggestions to make, feel free to Tweet me @GpodawundFF. 

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