Dynasty Fantasy Trade Values: Week 2
It’s redraft season, which means it’s overreaction season. Every week of games brings new surprises and another subset of data to evaluate. With that information comes some large changes in value, not just for redraft, but for dynasty as well. Week 1 was certainly no exception to that as we saw healthy scratches, benchings, disappointing games, injuries, and of course breakout games. Sometimes the hardest part can be figuring just how much you should pay to get these volatile players, or how much you should demand of those trying to buy them from you. Fantasy football can be a game of quick reactions and decisions that can have effects years down the road. I want to help you get all the information to make your own informed decisions on some of these players each week. I’ll be breaking down some of the more polarizing players each week and talking about their dynasty value. Check it out in my first one here with Dynasty Fantasy Trade Values: Week 2.
Dynasty League Football (DLF) has a lot of great tools for their members that I highly suggest you check out and subscribe to. One of my favorites, that I will use for this article, is the DLF trade finder. They use real trades happening in real-time across hundreds of leagues and compile the information into one searchable database. Today I have chosen four players and collected what I thought to be a representative sample of their trades occurring between their Week 1 game and today. I will break down which trades I prefer to acquire the player in question and which I would prefer to sell him. At the end, I will give a verdict of market value for the player so you can make your own decisions and trades in your own leagues. Use these values to try and go out and make some trades for yourself. Let’s get into it.
Brandon Aiyuk
Brandon Aiyuk, maybe more accurately Kyle Shanahan, upset a lot of fantasy managers this week when the second-year break-out candidate ran behind Trent Sherfield and failed to register a single target in the game. There are some that believe Aiyuk is in Shanahan’s doghouse, and are having nightmare flashbacks of 2019 Dante Pettis, who was also receiving a lot of hype going into his second year before completely busting under coach Shanahan. Others believe Aiyuk was simply still recovering from a hamstring injury and the breakout is still just a matter of time. These differing values have led to plenty of trades including Aiyuk this week. He was paired with a first-round rookie pick in 2022 twice to acquire Amari Cooper who was the top receiver on the week in Week 1. It is hard to argue against using an uncertain asset to get a proven veteran in Cooper that seems to be a favorite target in the Cowboys pass attack. There were other trades, including a pair of trades acquiring Aiyuk for future first-round picks that seem like reasonable gambles for a talented former first-rounder with good rookie production. One of the trades that caught my eye first was acquiring a second-round pick on top of Aiyuk for Deebo Samuel and a fifth-rounder. This certainly would have been impossible a week ago.
Verdict: While his value predicatively varies widely across leagues, he seems to be generally considered worth a single random future first-round pick.
Elijah Mitchell
Another 49er makes the list, though Elijah Mitchell’s value is rising rather than falling. Following the unfortunate injury to Raheem Mostert, Mitchell took on an almost workhorse role, turning 19 carries into 104 yards and a touchdown. He became the waiver wire darling of the week, often going for over 70% of FAAB budgets or more. The concerns for Mitchell are twofold. Fellow 49ers rookie running back Trey Sermon was inactive in Week 1 due to his lack of special teams play and will now be returning to the active roster. Shanahan also has a history of constantly changing and giving us difficult to predict running back usage that can cause headaches for fantasy managers. Nonetheless, Mitchell clearly has upside and that is reflected in the trades we saw for him this week. One of my favorites was using Mitchell to acquire a proven fantasy producer in Chris Carson with only a minor pick swap added on. He also went in a couple of leagues for a future first which shows a lot of confidence in the rookie 6th round pick. Rookie Kenneth Gainwell also had a really nice debut, and one manager was able to get him along with a package of other depth picks in return for Mitchell. There were more palatable prices as well though including managers acquiring Mitchell for a trio of third-round rookie picks and a combination of second and third-round picks.
Verdict: The Mitchell hype resulted in some large returns in value for him in some leagues, but his average value likely settles into the high-end second-round rookie pick range for those trying to buy him still.
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
Jerry Jeudy
Jerry Jeudy almost felt like a universal breakout candidate coming into the year as a young elite route runner whose skillset paired with new Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater well. He seemed to affirm a lot of his proponents, catching 6 of 7 targets for 72 yards, before going down to a high ankle sprain later in the game. A high ankle sprain should not result in any long-term repercussions, but still poses a difficulty to fantasy managers who have to cope with the likelihood of not having for 6+ weeks. There is also the risk that Courtland Sutton or another Denver receiver shows out and builds a rapport with Bridgewater in Jeudy’s absence. These worries do seem to be reflected in some of his trades this week that seem to certainly value him less than a couple of weeks ago. Notably, he went straight up for receivers like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Deebo Samuel who were being drafted behind him just a week ago. He also was traded for a veteran running back in Kareem Hunt. Using Jeudy to acquire Stefon Diggs is certainly a win for a contending team, but giving up a promising young tight end in TJ Hockenson isn’t a cheap price to make it happen.
Verdict: The price for Jeudy will likely depend on whether his current manager is a contending team or not but he can be had in leagues right now for the price of WR3 or flex type option.
Ty’Son Williams
The Ravens have had the injury bug hit them harder than any other NFL team so far, and the running back position took the brunt of the blow losing both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. This opened up the door for young Ty’son Williams who was the only back left on the roster with more than a couple of weeks’ experience on the team. Williams looked explosive early turning nine carries into 65 yards and a touchdown as well as three catches for 29 yards, before ceding work late to Latavius Murray. While the explosiveness was obvious, losing touches late to a more experienced back has fantasy managers worried considering the Ravens have a lot of dependable veteran backs with Murray, Devonta Freeman, and Le’Veon Bell. The fact that Williams is likely only a one-year play with Dobbins and Edwards both under contract long term also needs to be factored in. Williams certainly has his fans with his value helping return Sermon in one trade and Carson in another where Williams was paired with Will Fuller. He was also used to obtain lower but still valuable depth pieces including Micahel Gallup and Evan Engram who are currently recovering from injury.
Verdict: Williams seems to be a popular player to pair with another middling asset to upgrade to a starter you really like. As far as his value in draft picks, he seems to be going for a single second-round pick.
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