Dynasty Fantasy Trade Values: Week 9

It’s redraft season, which means it’s overreaction season. Every week of games brings new surprises and another subset of data to evaluate. With that information comes some large changes in value, not just for redraft, but for dynasty as well. Week 8 was full of big games, disappointments, breakouts, and unfortunate storylines, and legal situations. Sometimes the hardest part can be figuring just how much you should pay to get these volatile players, or how much you should demand of those trying to buy them from you. Fantasy football can be a game of quick reactions and decisions that can have effects years down the road. I want to help you get all the information to make your own informed decisions on some of these players. I’ll be breaking down some of the more polarizing players each week and talking about their dynasty value. Check it out in my latest Dynasty Fantasy Trade Values: Week 9.

Dynasty League Football (DLF) has a lot of great tools for their members that I highly suggest you check out and subscribe to. One of my favorites, that I will use for this article, is the DLF trade finder. They use real trades happening in real-time across hundreds of leagues and compile the information into one searchable database. Today I have chosen four players and collected what I thought to be a representative sample of their trades occurring between their Week 8 game and today. I will break down which trades I prefer to acquire the player in question and which I would prefer to sell him. In the end, I will give a verdict of market value for the player so you can make your own decisions and trades in your own leagues. Use these values to try and go out and make some trades for yourself. Let’s get into it.

Elijah Mitchell

I included Elijah Mitchell in an earlier version of this series before his role was solidified. But with the breakout in full swing now, I thought it would be worth checking back in on his value.  Mitchell now has over 100 rushing yards in 3 of his 5 games including his last two.  The Kyle Shanahan running back spot has always been coveted by fantasy managers and Mitchell seems to have locked himself in there.  There are still questions.  First off, Jeff Wilson is still expected to return at some point this year and has a history of vulturing short-yardage and goal-line work from top backs in that offense.  This would be easier to deal with if not for the second issue, which is that Mitchell is not involved in the passing game.  He only has 4 receptions total on the season.  That doesn’t mean that his trade value is low, however.  There are multiple instances of Mitchell being traded for first-round picks.  He has also been traded for some legitimate starting receivers such as Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, and Chase Claypool.

Verdict: There is plenty of reason for optimism for Elijah Mitchell.  He is in a high-powered rushing offense and has looked good.  There are enough questions there for me though to be very interested in selling at the current market price.  He is going regularly for a first-round pick, and packaged with smaller assets to get really good starting receivers.

Damien Harris

Damien Harris has clearly been the lead back for the Patriots this year with 14 or more carries in 6 of 8 games.  He also has 6 touchdowns.  He still has pretty limited receiving work, but the more solidified role as a back-end RB2 for fantasy is making managers more willing to shell out legitimate assets to acquire the 24-year-old running back.  There were not a lot of trades involving Harris for draft picks straight up but he was used to acquire a first-round pick a couple of times this week.  Miles Sanders also seemed to be a popular buy low target for Harris owners trying to sell high on him.  There were also packages where he was used to upgrading, such as the Karmara trade, and packages where he was used to gaining depth, such as the AJ Dillon trade.

Verdict: There were some trades involving Harris this week that I preferred the Harris side and some I preferred the other side.  I personally would rather have the first-round pick than Harris and if I am selling that would be my goal. I would also be ecstatic to move him for a top-end running back like Kamara in a package deal.  If the best you can get is an upside player like AJ Dillon though I am probably keeping Harris who still has plenty of valuable games ahead of him.

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Michael Thomas

It wasn’t that long ago that Michael Thomas was considered the clear-cut top wide receiver in dynasty.  But now it will be essentially two lost seasons in a row for the superstar receiver who will be 29 before he sees the field again.  Thomas certainly still carries plenty of name-value in trades but a combination of his mounting injury history, uncertain quarterback situation, and his age have led to his price plummeting in recent weeks.  Thomas has been involved in a lot of straight-up trades for other receivers including Rashod Bateman, Mike Williams, Amari Cooper, and Cordarrelle Patterson.  He was still able to return a first-round pick but not until 2024.  He also was traded for running backs such as David Montgomery and Chase Edmonds.

Verdict: Oh how the might have fallen. Managers are starting to panic about Thomas, and honestly, I understand why.  There are a lot of factors on the negative side of the argument over him.  But there is no reason to believe his career of fantasy relevance is completely over and the prices are reasonable.  Specifically, if you can trade an asset likely to lose value in the offseason like Cordarrelle Patterson or Chase Edmonds, I am happy to do that.  A 2024 first-round pick should also be easy enough to recoup that I would be happy to make that deal.  If you are a rebuilding team trying to unload I would try and get a young stud like Bateman.

Calvin Ridley

We don’t know the full story for Calvin Ridley, but we do know this: he has decided to take some time off from the game to get himself right mentally.  We applaud anyone who takes this step to help themselves when it is needed.  It does, however, put fantasy managers in a weird position.  We have no idea if Ridley will be back in a couple of weeks, a couple of years, or never again.  That obviously is going to lead to very volatile values in trade negotiations.  I don’t think I have ever seen more trades centered around a single player in a single week in the trade finder than Calvin Ridley this week. His value is certainly not being treated like he has the potential to be done for his career, but it’s also clearly discounted.  He was traded for valuable but not superstar receivers like Adam Thielen, Deebo Samuel, and Michael Pittman. He was also packaged with other assets to obtain superstars like Stefon Diggs, and Austin Ekeler who were drafted similar to Ridley entering the year.

Verdict:  I am choosing to view the situation as if Ridley will not be back this year but will be back to start the year next year.  In my opinion, this is appropriately conservative when taking on the risk of him in a trade.  This means I would happily take the discount for the price of veterans like Adam Thielen or slightly more unproven guys like Michael Pittman.  I am also happy to send a single first to get Ridley.

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