Enter Madness – Free March Madness Picks

We are one week in, and few brackets remain unscathed by the utter carnage which ensued right from the tip off on Thursday. While St. Peter’s upset of Kentucky and eventual win over Murray State represent two highlights of this tournament so far, North Carolina’s up-tempo attack has also been a major story worth noting. How will these teams stack up against their competition in the Sweet Sixteen? Let’s tackle the over/unders, assessing the risk profile of each pick.

– March Madness Home –

Villanova -5/Michigan +5

In lieu of how Michigan has played in the last two games, this spread seems about right. Hunter Dickinson is going to be difficult for Villanova to contain inside. However, Michigan does not have enough firepower to counter Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore’s patient three-point onslaught. 

Verdict: Stay Away

Gonzaga -9.5/Arkansas +9.5

While JD Notae and company can get out and run with the Zags, his haphazard decision-making at times leaves his team vulnerable against a dangerous Gonzaga attack. I expect Gonzaga to blow this one open late in the game. The spread is still wide enough that I would caution people looking to wager on this one.

Verdict: Stay Away

Texas Tech -1/Duke +1

The Blue Devils are one of the most talented, but enigmatic clubs in all of college basketball. They have had lapses where they look completely lost on the defensive end, yet they were able to hunker down defensively and defeat Tom Izzo’s Spartans. Texas Tech’s stalwart defense and physicality present an even more challenging test, which will undoubtedly give Duke’s talented youngsters a few headaches. Ultimately, AJ Griffin (who is available to play), Wendell Moore, and Paolo Banchero are simply more talented. Mark Williams should protect the lane on the defensive end. 

Verdict: Duke +1.0

Arizona -1.5/Houston +1.5

The Houston Cougars are simply relentless on the glass and play with a level of physicality that few teams can match. In order to defeat them, the opposition’s guards must play under control and run sets unphased by Houston’s pressure D. Dalen Terry and Ben Mathurin are talented enough to do this. Houston will have no answer inside for Azuolas Tubelis or Christian Koloko. 

Verdict: Arizona -1.5

Purdue -12.5/St. Peter’s +12.5

This game is going to be extremely difficult for St. Peter’s to win, due to the size differential, with Zach Edey at 7’4 and the Peacock’s top big at 6’8. Can Doug Edert, Daryl Banks, and Matthew Lee slow down top NBA prospect Jaden Ivey? This will be a tall task as well. However, Purdue’s average margin of victory is +11.3 pts. The Peacocks are competing too hard and running their sets too well to not keep this game close. St. Peter’s will have to shoot well to stay within striking distance. 

Verdict: St. Peter’s +12.5

Kansas -7.5/Providence +7.5

Providence’s defense has wreaked havoc throughout the tournament so far. But, they have not yet faced a team with elite-level athletes. Durham should cause some problems for Remy Martin and Nate Watson will be able to score inside. Ultimately, I think Ochai Agbaji will be too much for the Friars, but this should be a close game.

Verdict: Providence +7.5

UCLA -2.5/North Carolina +2.5

This style contrast should be the highlight of the round. North Carolina is playing some of the best basketball of any team left in this tournament. UCLA counters with a tremendous amount of weapons and excellent tournament experience. The Bruins should be able to slow the pace down and force the game to become more of a half-court battle. If this happens, UCLA will win. However, this game is a total toss-up. 

Verdict: Stay Away

Miami (FL.) -2.5/Iowa State +2.5

It is highly unlikely that Miami’s three-pronged attack of Kameron McGusty, Isaiah Wong, and Charlie Moore will go 2-22 from beyond the three point line. Instead, the trio should prove to be too much firepower for at-times, offensively anemic Cyclones. While Izaiah Brockington will certainly help his team hang around, the Hurricanes’ team defense did a nice job against Auburn and should continue to lock in for this matchup. 

Verdict: Miami (Fl.) -2.5   

NBA Prospects

Caleb Houstan, Michigan

While Houstan has had his games that he might like to forget, last round’s Tennessee matchup being one of them, he is a 6’8 prototypical wing with the profile to play at the next level. Besides two outlier performances, Houstan has generally played at a high level since late February. His performance against Villanova tonight will not only be critical for Michigan’s hopes, but also for his draft stock. Houstan is currently projected to be a borderline first-round pick by several outlets. A strong NCAA tournament showing (in at least two games), coupled with good draft workouts, could solidify a guaranteed contract.

AJ Griffin, Duke

Let me start by saying that we all know what we are getting from AJ Griffin. But, Griffin is consistently being projected in the 5-10 range by most draft outlets. If AJ is not hampered by the ailing ankle injury he picked up in the last round, he could be a difference-maker for Duke against a stout Texas Tech defense. Griffin’s shooting and athletic profile stand out, even amongst Duke’s extremely talented club. A performance uplifting Duke from the clutches of the Red Raiders should immediately place him in the top four consideration for 2022. He will likely be there anyway after draft workouts.

Izaiah Brockington, Iowa State

Brockington will have his work cut out for him defensively against Miami’s guard-laden attack. If he is able to step up on this end of the floor and generate turnovers, the Cyclones could keep this one close. Also, can he redeem himself after a poor shooting outing against Wisconsin? I believe that he can and this next game will reaffirm his position as a solid second-round option in 2022.

KC Ndefo, St. Peter’s

Ndefo’s shot-blocking and rim protection have been one of the best stories of the tournament. But, can he perform against legitimate size? 7’4 Zach Edey will put him to the test. This is the type of matchup that can do wonders for Ndefo’s stock if he is able to hold his own against a bigger opponent. This size would parallel what he would face in the paint in the NBA, so a positive showing could place him more squarely on the draft radar.

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