Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickup – Steven Kwan

Fantasy baseball Twitter has been buzzing about Steven Kwan as of late.  Some people think you should sell high, and others think you should add or hold. He’s not a highly touted prospect like Julio Rodriguez or Bobby Witt Jr., but he is a player you should know.  I believe that he should be rostered in most leagues.

Kwan is the Cleveland Guardians’ 24-year-old rookie outfielder who has been scorching red hot to start the season. He was a 5th round draft pick from Oregon State University in the 2018 MLB draft.  He has started his MLB career with a robust .692 average in 19 plate appearances with nine hits, 6 runs, 5 walks, and 3 RBIs.  According to the Cleveland Guardians Twitter account, he has reached base 15 times in a four-game series which was the most times in a player’s first four career games since at least 1901!  He will not keep up this pace all season, but he was an elite hitter in college and the minor leagues.

In College, he had a career .329 AVG with a .431 OBP and walked 82 times, while only striking out 38 times in 597 plate appearances.  Between AA and AAA last season he hit .328 with a .407 OBP and had 12 home runs and six stolen bases in 341 plate appearances. He had 36 walks and struck out 31 times. For his minor league career, he walked 100 times and only struck out 87 times in 947 plate appearances. He struck out under 11 percent of his plate appearances in his minor league career. That’s a ridiculously low number and he showed elite plate discipline.

The biggest concern for fantasy baseball players is will he hit enough home runs and steal enough bases to be fantasy relevant. If you are expecting 30 home runs this season you are going to be disappointed. He only hit 15 home runs his whole minor league career.  He did hit 12 of the 15 last season so maybe he’s been working on his launch angle to generate more power.  He’s going to be able to help in certain categories like runs scored, average, and will chip in some stolen bases.  He’s great for points league because he should have a high walk rate and a low K rate. He is being compared with players like Michael Brantley and Nick Madrigal. Both of these players are probably better real-life baseball players than fantasy players, but Brantley has had four seasons with 15 home runs or more which is solid for fantasy purposes. Madrigal has two home runs in 337 career MLB plate appearances. If Kwan is closer to Brantley, he’s going to be someone who needs to be rostered in most fantasy leagues.

Kwan is so polarizing because fantasy managers do not know what to make of him. The jury is still out and only time will tell. His performance so far has been specular in his first four games. It’s a super small sample size and pitchers will make adjustments.  He has not swung and missed on a pitch yet. He is someone you want to pick up off waivers if available to see what happens. Maybe he can hit for some power and steal a few bases. I wouldn’t expect more than 10 to 12 home runs and five to seven stolen bases this season.  I think if he continues to bat second in the Guardians lineup most days that he could hit over .300 with a .400 OBP and score 80 to 90 runs.

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