Fantasy Draft Strategies: Reaching on Draft Day

It’s August and we are officially in fantasy football draft season! We’ve all been preparing, analyzing, mock drafting, and studying for weeks, if not months, to find a way to build the perfect foundation for your fantasy teams. Some folks just go with the flow and play the draft board as it unfolds which can be a sound strategy.  Some of us want to have a more strict or laid out plan in place before we join up with friends, family, or a bunch of random people we don’t even know as we step onto the battlefield that is the fantasy football draft. Personally, I always like to have a plan. Now is the perfect time to find a strategy that works for you.  In this article, I will lay out one of my favorite draft strategies that has brought me to the promised land in years past years, and that’s not being afraid to reach for your guys. This article I talk about when it’s ok to reach for your guys in Fantasy Football: Reaching on Draft Day.

This is a strategy that works best for those with a mid-round pick in the first round, around pick 6-10 overall.  Since you’re likely missing out on the top-tier running backs and you don’t need to just follow the crowd and select the next one on your cheat sheet. Instead, you identify players that have the potential to leap into that upper echelon of other players at their respective positions. Specifically, the guys who are slated to be drafted in the following round. For instance, based on the average draft position from FantasyData, Najee Harris is currently being selected at the beginning of the second round but you think he’s primed for an explosive entry into the NFL. Well, reach a round early, and take him in the first. You might get an awkward look from your league-mates, but that’s kind of the point. Your opponents may now be thinking, they missed something or laugh at you. The main focus of the reaching strategy is to get the guys you want on your team, regardless of ADP.  This is a plan I have used sparingly or completely throughout a single draft with very positive results, though I prefer to use it sparingly. This doesn’t necessarily mean reaching for someone with a 10th round ADP in the fourth or fifth round, but simply not being afraid to reach for your favorite players and the ones you really believe in.

Let’s look at the facts, based on previous seasons.  Every year, there are a large number of players that vastly outperformed their ADP and took fantasy players to the bank.  Let’s look at some players who did this for their fantasy teams in 2019 in a 0.5 points per reception (PPR) 12 team league.

1st Round Pick: Michael Thomas: ADP 13.9, WR5 – finished as WR1

2nd Round Pick: Aaron Jones: ADP 25.5, RB15 – finished as RB2

3rd Round Pick: Mark Ingram: ADP 37.5, RB22 – finished as RB8

3rd Round Pick: Chris Godwin: ADP 43.3, WR16 – finished as WR2

4th Round Pick: Cooper Kupp: ADP 49.1, WR19 – finished as WR4

4th Round Pick: Kenny Golladay: ADP 53, WR22 – finished as WR6

6th Round Pick: Allen Robinson: ADP 75.2, WR31 – finished as WR10

8th Round Pick: Jameis Winston: ADP 104.8, QB15 – finished as QB5

10th Round Pick: Michael Gallup: ADP 111.6, WR44 – finished as WR20

12th Round Pick: John Brown: ADP 135.3, WR55 – finished as WR18

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Now let’s go through a number of players who drove your team to the top of the rankings in the 2020 season.

1st Round Pick: Aaron Jones: ADP 16.2, RB13 – finished as RB6

3rd Round Pick: David Montgomery: ADP 41.5, RB24 – finished as RB4

3rd Round Pick: DK Metcalf: ADP 42.4, WR16 – finished as WR5

4th Round Pick: Tyler Lockett: ADP 50.8, WR20 – finished as WR10

4th Round Pick: Kareem Hunt: ADP 54.8, RB27 – finished as RB11

6th Round Pick: Brandin Cooks: ADP 74.5, WR30 – finished as WR15

6th Round Pick: Aaron Rodgers: ADP 75.8, QB7 – finished as QB2

8th Round Pick: Antonio Gibson: ADP 105.3, RB44 – finished as RB12

12th Round Pick: Mike Gesicki: ADP 151.8, TE16 – finished as TE7

These are some of the players that made a big statement in those seasons.  If you had even two or three of them on your team, you likely made a big push through your competition that year and probably left with a fantasy championship in your pocket and a bunch of teary-eyed competitors in your wake.  While it is still hard to predict which players will actually finish the season at the top of the rankings, the main goal is to have fun.  In the end, it’s really all about getting the guys you have faith in and throwing a side-eye at your opponent’s come season’s end.  If you leave your draft with a roster you are happy with, you’re already doing it right.

To conclude, I’ll give you my list of players worthy of that early-round selection in this year’s fantasy drafts.  Again, these are all players that I believe will be much better than currently expected.  You may have your own players in mind, which is absolutely cool.  For the sake of this article, I’m only going to list one player per round.

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1st Round Pick: Austin Ekeler: ADP 12.9, RB11

2nd Round Pick: Terry McLaurin: ADP 32.9, WR10

3rd Round Pick: Ceedee Lamb: ADP 37.9, WR13

4th Round Pick: T.J. Hockenson: ADP 57.2, TE6

5th Round Pick: Damien Harris: ADP 63.9, RB31

6th Round Pick: Tee Higgins: ADP 73.5, WR29

7th Round Pick: Michael Carter: ADP 87, RB39

8th Round Pick: Ryan Tannehill: ADP 96.3, QB13

That looks like the beginning of a really solid team full of upside and potential. There are targets, volume, and explosiveness all over it. These could be some of the guys that bring you to an illustrious fantasy championship in 2021.