Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 10
Welcome to FF Faceoff’s weekly report, a first take at the biggest fantasy football takeaways from this weekend’s action. Each week we will provide an overall gut check from the week and nominate our risers, fallers, dynasty stashes, and more. Let’s get straight to it this week with Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 10.
Risers
Antonio Gibson
(RB7, 24 carries, 64 yards, 2 TDs, 2 receptions, 14 yards, 21.8 PPR points)
After an incredibly disappointing start to the season, Antonio Gibson is currently sitting at his first top ten fantasy performance this season. Gibson was drafted in the late first round to early second round in 2021 drafts and is currently RB19 on the season. In recent weeks, he’s been a touchdown-dependent RB2 at best and has been benched by many fantasy managers, including myself.
While this performance looks very different if Gibson doesn’t score those two touchdowns, there are plenty of positives to take away from this week. First, his 24 carries are his highest on the season, and the first time he’s carried the ball at least 20 times since week five. Second, he was getting significant goal line work, which led to those two touchdowns.
Third, this performance came against the number one defense in the league, so we expected his rush yards to be lower than desirable. And fourth, if you watched this game, you saw him run tough through the Tampa Bay defense, taking many hits and carrying defenders. That signals that he has likely fully healed and is able to take on a prominent workload moving forward.
I believe now is the last chance to get in on Gibson before the season ends. The only downside from Sunday is he didn’t get the pass game usage to give him top three running back upside, but his increased workload is promising for fantasy managers.
A.J. Dillon
(RB3, 21 carries, 66 yards, 2 TDs, 2 receptions 62 yards, 26.8 PPR points)
Coming into the season many saw A.J. Dillon more as a problem for Aaron Jones’ production than a standalone option at running back. And while this week’s emergence is in part due to Jones exiting the game early for injury, Dillon’s stat line nonetheless communicates what is becoming increasingly clear – if given lead back responsibilities, he easily achieves RB1 status.
The promising aspect of his performance in week ten is how it compares to week nine, where he had 12 total touches and finished with 13.0 PPR points. This week, he nearly doubled his touches at 23, which led to him doubling his points total at 26.8. The efficiency is there, and it appears to remain when Dillon’s load increases.
With Jones feared to have an MCL injury, Dillon should be a priority waiver candidate this week, if he hasn’t already been stashed in your lineup.
Hunter Henry
(TE2, 4 receptions, 37 yards, 2 TDs, 19.7 PPR points)
One of the most surprising trends of the season is the fact that Hunter Henry, not Jonnu Smith, is the number one tight end in New England. Currently, Henry is TE4 on the season, something no one likely predicted in August.
But Henry’s fantasy performance to date is a cautionary tale. Through week 10, Henry has the fewest receptions of the top ten fantasy tight ends and is tied for the fewest yards with Tyler Conklin. Overall, he’s fourteenth in receptions, demonstrating that most of his fantasy upside has come through scoring touchdowns.
Henry is unlikely to maintain the touchdown pace he is currently on, so he continues to be what most tight ends are – touchdown-dependent. If you’re managing Henry, I’d plan to enjoy the ride while it lasts, but start eyeing other options.
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Fallers
Cordarrelle Patterson
(RB45, 4 carries, 25 yards, 1 reception, 14 yards, 4.9 PPR points)
I think the fantasy community collectively has been watching Cordarrelle Patterson waiting for this run of incredible performances to come to an end. His performance this year defies all fantasy logic, which of course reminds us of the randomness of fantasy football.
That said, I think this week is the fluke performance, not his first nine weeks of the season. The Atlanta Falcons looked rough on Sunday, with the offense unable to get anything going against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has been hit or miss this season. Further, Patterson was only targeted twice, hampering his pass-game upside.
I expect Patterson to bounce back in week 11. Maybe we see fewer 20- and 30-point games from him, but he should continue to be a solid RB2 or flex option moving forward. If we see this performance continue over another week or two, then I’ll start to shift on Patterson.
Mike Williams
(WR42, 4 receptions, 33 yards, 7.3 PPR points)
After an incredible start to the 2021 season, Mike Williams was the number two fantasy wide receiver, behind only Cooper Kupp. Since then, he has failed to achieve double-digits in four consecutive performances and has dropped to WR17 on the season. This has coincided with the re-emergence of Keenan Allen, who is averaging nearly 20 fantasy points over the past three weeks.
Much of this can be attributed to Williams’ target share. He was targeted 51 times in the first five weeks of the season, but since then has only been targeted 21 times.
Whether that is attributable to defenses providing more coverage against Williams or a game scheme change by Los Angeles, it is a concerning trend that has me keeping Williams on the bench until we get a better sense of the type of player he is moving forward.
I see three possibilities. One, this is just a dry spell, and we need to practice patience until his performance returns. Two, he is a boom or bust fantasy receiver and managers need to decide the type of risk they’re willing to take. Three, his first five weeks were an anomaly, and this is what we should expect moving forward.
I think option one is the most likely situation, so I’ll be looking for Los Angeles to try getting him more involved next week against Pittsburgh.
Dalton Schultz
(TE35, 1 reception, 14 yards, 2.4 PPR points)
While the Dallas Cowboys had a party against the Falcons on Sunday, Dalton Schultz was left alone on the dance floor, ending with just one reception on two targets. Similar to Mike Williams, Schultz has seen a decrease in his target share. Through week six, Schultz averaged just over seven targets per game. Since then, he’s averaging less than five.
That is more concerning to me than the lack of fantasy points, as tight ends are incredibly reliant on volume to provide fantasy production. And while his target share looks bad over the past three weeks, it looked even worse on Sunday, with Schultz getting his lowest number of targets since week two.
Replacing Schultz on the dance floor was Michael Gallup, who received five targets in his first game back from injury. Many had already connected Schultz’s rise with Gallup’s absence, and this week was the first proof point of that argument.
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Dynasty Stashes
Ray-Ray McCloud
(WR7, 9 receptions, 63 yards, 15.3 PPR points)
With Chase Claypool out with an injury, Ray-Ray McCloud saw more action on Sunday than any other point in 2021. McCloud was one of the players who made my watchlist after the preseason. It was always evident that he would be limited unless players above him got injured, but this week he demonstrated his WR2 ability, coming only behind Diontae Johnson in targets.
As he’s in his fifth year as an NFL receiver, he may have few chances to get a true starting role, but his ability to easily step in when there are injuries up the depth chart makes him a prominent back-up if you roster other Steelers wide receivers. Either way, he is worth keeping on your dynasty roster.
Albert Okwuegbunam
(TE9, 3 receptions, 77 yards, 10.7 PPR points)
The second-year tight end out of Missouri came across fantasy managers radars when Noah Fant was out in week nine, and during that time, Albert Okwuegbunam (oak-oo-way-boo-nahm) has emerged as a solid fill-in at the tight end spot. Tight ends tend to come into form in years two through four, so Okwuegbunam has the potential to continue rising in fantasy prominence.
Notable Targets and Touches
D’Andre Swift, 36 touches: This was something I never expected, as the case for D’Andre Swift has been the Alvin Kamara-like usage, not the workhorse back narrative. But on Sunday, Swift had 33 carries and three receptions. For comparison, Swift carries the ball 38 times over the previous three weeks combined. I would be surprised if this trend continues, but even this balances out to 20 carries and five receptions, that is the type of workload to close any remaining questions about Swift’s fantasy status.
Christian McCaffrey, 10 targets: While Cam Newton was the major headline coming out of Sunday’s game, Christian McCaffrey quietly shifted back into his prominent role in the Carolina offense. With all the injury struggles he’s had over the past two seasons, I was glad to see them ease him back in last week and I hope they continue to monitor his load and ensure he remains active. But for CMC managers, seeing him back at 10 targets is a promising sign as we approach fantasy playoffs.
T.J. Hockenson, 1 Target: After bouncing back in the three weeks before Detroit’s bye week, T.J. Hockenson ended Sunday with zero receptions and zero fantasy points on only one target. And this came in a game where Detroit was in it the entire time and even got an extra ten minutes of play.
Perhaps this was simply the Pittsburgh Steelers making the decision to cover Hockenson and force Detroit to beat them other ways, but this type of performance always stands out to me, as it raises questions about whether the offensive scheme can fully support the talent of the player.
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Monday Night Preview
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
I’m really looking forward to tonight’s matchup between LAR and San Francisco, mostly because these are two west coast teams that I only get to watch when they perform in primetime. From a football perspective, this will be the first time since early in the season that I’ll get to watch San Francisco, and I’ll be looking to understand their offensive identity in what has seemed like a disjointed team through week nine.
When it comes to fantasy, I’ll always be paying attention to the snap share of San Francisco running backs. Elijah Mitchell has seemingly taken the helm, but I always feel uneasy when it comes to that backfield as something could shift at any given moment.
On the other side of the ball, along with every other person watching this game, I’ll have my eyes on Odell Beckham Jr. and just how much production he gets out the gate. While much has been made of the situation with him leaving Cleveland, I think it had become pretty clear that he was not a good fit for Baker Mayfield or for the Cleveland Browns offensive scheme.
Especially now that Robert Woods is injured, Beckham fills a valuable role for the Rams, providing additional crossing routes to open up potential deep balls to the likes of Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson. I think no matter what, Beckham’s fantasy value increases in LAR, but to read more on this move, check out our recent reaction on Beckham’s departure from Cleveland.
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