Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 3
Welcome to The FF Faceoff’s weekly recap, a first take at the biggest fantasy football takeaways from this weekend’s action. Each week we will provide an overall gut check from the week and nominate our risers, fallers, dynasty stashes, and more. Check it all out here in Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 3.
With three weeks in the bag, fantasy managers are hitting their stride or hitting a wall with their performance to date. In a 17-game season, there is still plenty of time for managers to adjust and make a comeback in their league. I’ve seen teams start out 1-5 only to make the playoffs and take home the championship. Anything is possible.
With the recent news around the fantasy football community, I wanted to take a moment to pause and say that my heart goes out to the family and friends of Mike Tagliere. I am new to this community and did not know or meet Tags, but I have seen his impact in the short time I’ve been around. I can tell he is loved and will be missed, and my heart is with those who mourn. I also know many people who are mourning others in their lives, and my heart is with you all as well. Take care of yourselves and give yourself space to take time.
One way we can continue to honor Tagliere is by enjoying one of the things he loved so much, fantasy football. Week 3 felt slightly more normal than Week 1 and 2, but that did not mean there weren’t any upsets. Perhaps the biggest upset of all was the Los Angeles Chargers defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Kansas City. The Chiefs struggled on offense throughout the game and Patrick Mahomes gave up two interceptions. One was off a tipped pass, but the second was simply getting beat by the Chargers defense, who is rising as one of the top passing defenses in the NFL.
Even with that, the managers of Mahomes and Travis Kelce came away with good weeks, with Mahomes scoring 22.9 points and Kelce with 17.9 points. What many, including myself, didn’t expect was that this would be a week where Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the third-highest scoring player on the Chiefs. And perhaps this is very informative for how to handle him moving forward. When the Chiefs face a tough pass defense but a weak run defense, Edwards-Helaire is a viable option. Otherwise, he should ride the bench. Essentially, the Chiefs seem to avoid the run unless they have to, simply because their pass game is so effective. But when teams can slow them down through the air, they have no choice but to take a more balanced approach.
This is all to say that matchups matter and should be accounted for when assessing player trends. With that, we’ll turn to our risers and fallers through Week 3.
Risers
Najee Harris
(RB1, 14 carries, 40 yards, 14 receptions, 102 yards, 28.2 points)
Through three games, Najee Harris is living up to his ADP, currently standing as RB6 and leading all running backs in receptions and targets. Seeing 19 targets in one week is absurd for anyone, let alone a running back and that’s just what Harris saw. What is potentially more impressive is that he’s done so without a rushing touchdown and is one of two top-12 running backs with only one touchdown through three games, the other being Christian McCaffrey. Harris is benefiting from the Steelers’ short pass approach which gives him a solid floor. It also means he drops to an RB2 in standard-scoring leagues. I’m cautiously optimistic about Harris’ performance to date. Rookie running backs can be very hit-or-miss (take Edwards-Helaire for example), but Harris is hitting the ground running. He’s a healthy lock as an RB1 so long as that pass usage continues.
Peyton Barber
(RB5, 23 carriers, 111 yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 31 yards, 23.2 points)
For the second week in a row, Peyton Barber led the Las Vegas Raiders in carries while Josh Jacobs missed time. From an organizational perspective, this is surprising given Kenyan Drake’s contract, but from a football perspective, Barber has simply been the more efficient of the two backups. Barber accounted for 66% of the Raiders carries and 79% of their rushing yards against Miami. This doesn’t mean Barber is a lock-it-in RB1, but for managers with Jacobs on their roster, Barber should be their target. He also is a viable flex option in deeper leagues. If Jacob is still out next week, Barber’s chances to repeat are good, as the Raiders will face the Chargers, who are currently last in rushing yards given to date.
Ja’Marr Chase
(WR6, 4 receptions, 65 yards, 2 TDs, 22.5 points)
This year’s rookie class has brought plenty of excitement into the league and through three weeks no rookie receiver has succeeded like Ja’Marr Chase. Chase is currently WR11 overall and is tied for second in touchdowns among wide receivers. What is both impressive and worrisome is he has done so while ranking 46th in receptions and outside the top 50 in targets. It reminds me of the end of A.J. Brown’s rookie season where you were counting on him getting deep targets and touchdowns from Ryan Tannehill. While Chase is averaging 20 yards per reception, his fantasy potential may decline over the next few weeks unless his target share increases. It’s possible Chase maintains his status as a deep threat, but I’m hoping to see more targets to secure Chase as a top-12 receiver.
Fallers
Ben Roethlisberger
(QB21, 38-58, 318 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 carry, 5 yards, 13.22 points)
Few would have expected Ben Roethlisberger to be a top-tier fantasy quarterback this season, but many considered him a viable option if you waited to draft a quarterback. Add to that the theory that the Steelers were projected to have three top-30 receivers, so surely Roethlisberger should have a good season. However, through three games, Roethlisberger has failed to break the 15-point barrier once. At the end of Week 2, he was only QB27. By now, many managers likely weren’t starting Roethlisberger, but this week should make managers feel comfortable dropping him, even in 2QB and Superflex leagues. Roethlisberger will likely have one or two big games, but predicting them will be challenging and not worth the pain of every other week. He looks awful and made some terrible mistakes along with falling flat on his face in the backfield without getting touched. He just looks nothing like he used to.
Kenyan Drake
(RB29, 8 carries, 24 yards, 3 receptions, 33 yards, 8.7 points)
This is the flip side of the Peyton Barber rise. Most fantasy managers likely weren’t starting Kenyan Drake to begin with, as FantasyPros had Drake ranked outside the top 30, meaning he wasn’t a viable flex play in 10-team leagues. And most teams likely were depending on Jacobs if they rostered a Las Vegas running back. But this week solidified the fact that Drake is not the backup to Jacobs and, even if he is, he doesn’t have the efficiency to provide fantasy upside. Drake is averaging just over 2 YPC, with his fantasy life only being salvaged by 13 receptions. He is a touchdown-dependent flex moving forward, and a very risky one.
Corey Davis
(WR46, 5 receptions, 41 yards, 9.1 points)
After a huge Week 1, Corey Davis has been shut down for two consecutive weeks, as has the entire Jets offense. There’s a common debate about whether a player on an unsuccessful can have fantasy success. And surely the answer is yes, but just because a player can be a fantasy asset despite their team’s overall performance doesn’t mean they will. Davis is unfortunately a perfect example of why this is true. In Week 1, Davis had seven targets, went five for 97, and scored two touchdowns. Since then, he’s had 15 targets, seven receptions, and 49 yards. Davis is clearly the number one receiver in this offense, but the offense is struggling all around. To be fair, the Jets faced Denver and New England in their past two matchups, but that’s really the point and that is Davis is a matchup-specific play. Next week against Tennessee may be better, but I’m looking elsewhere if I can help it.
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
Dynasty Stashes
Bryan Edwards
(WR38, 3 receptions, 89 yards, 11.9 points)
If you watched the Raiders Monday night thriller against the Ravens, you’ll remember Bryan Edwards making a major impact towards the end of the game and in overtime. Edwards is in his second year with the Raiders and after three games he has nearly matched his 2020 receptions and targets and has surpassed his 2020 passing yards total. The biggest hamper for Edwards is that the Raiders offense sneakily has several impact players. Between Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs, and Hunter Renfrow, Derek Carr has plenty of options when passing the ball. But Edwards is creeping his way up the pecking order and could end 2021 with a big push, positioning himself as a sneaky play for 2022 and beyond.
Anthony Miller
(WR37, 4 receptions, 20 yards, 1 TD, 12.0 points)
There wasn’t much action for Houston receivers not named Brandin Cooks on Thursday night, but Anthony Miller made his impact known in small but notable ways. Getting six targets, the second most among Houston receivers, and four receptions, Miller made his way to a 12-point fantasy night after scoring the only Houston touchdown. Miller is unlikely to be a factor in 2021, as his Thursday night appearance came due to injuries from Danny Amendola and Nico Collins, but Miller was reliable when his number was called and could be a factor when given the opportunities.
Notable Targets
Najee Harris, 19 targets: This is simply to build on the rise of Harris over the first few weeks of the season. Harris accounted for 33% of the Steelers’ target share. Those 19 targets are more than Gus Edwards had during the entire 2020 season. Harris is unlikely to keep up that pace, but his pass usage should ensure his fantasy viability moving forward.
Jaylen Waddle, 13 targets: Waddle is one of several impressive rookie wide receivers, and this week made his fantasy presence known while recording under 60 yards. Waddle is proving to be a favorite target in the Miami offense, which is promising for his fantasy future.
Kyle Pitts, 3 targets: The number four draft pick has had a mixed start to the season, but this week saw his lowest target share to date. More concerning, it came against a New York Giants team that has given up 27 and 30 points in their first two matchups. Pitts still has plenty of time to meet the hype, but fantasy managers and Atlanta fans alike would like to see the Falcons put in an effort to get Pitts more involved.
Tennessee Titans not named A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, or Derrick Henry, 18 targets: This week we saw Julio Jones get four targets, Derrick Henry three, and AJ Brown two. Brown left the game early for injury, but nonetheless, the Titans continued working the run game, as Henry received 28 carries. Even if Brown is healthy next week, this could be a concerning trend, with the Titans spreading the love.
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Monday Night Preview
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Monday night hosts an NFC East matchup that is anticipated to be a high-scoring affair, with the line set at 51.5 points. The Eagles and the Cowboys both have the potential to be dominant offenses, but both have shown the same trend of big week ones and underwhelming Week 2 performances. I’m expecting both teams to be working hard to get their offenses rolling and in turn expect this to live up to the projections.
Regarding fantasy trends, I’ll be looking for two things. The narrative around Jalen Hurts has felt fairly silent, despite averaging 25.3 points through two games. My biggest question for Hurts is if he can maintain this performance against Dallas, and if so, how long until he is considered a consensus QB1?
Second, I’m looking for more data on how the Cowboys backfield is going to shake out. Through two weeks, Tony Pollard is outperforming Ezekiel Elliott in rushing yards, receiving yards, targets, and total fantasy points despite getting less volume and time on the field. Much of that may be assigned to how the Cowboys utilized Zeke in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, but if Pollard outscores Elliott again, we may have to shift our expectations around the Dallas backfield.
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