Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 5
Welcome to The FF Faceoff’s weekly report, a first take at the biggest fantasy football takeaways from this weekend’s action. Each week we will provide an overall gut check from the week and nominate our risers, fallers, dynasty stashes, and more. Check it all out here in Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 5.
With Week 5 in the bag, we can certainly say that this season has brought unexpected trends, with the Kansas City Chiefs sitting in last place in the AFC West and the Cleveland Browns scoring their own goal against the Los Angeles Chargers. If you aren’t aware of what I’m referring to, with less than two minutes to go in the game, the Chargers were about to score and take a late lead. Austin Ekeler did not want to score too quickly and give the Browns a chance to drive down the field for a game-winning touchdown. On his first rush attempt, Ekeler slid at about the three-yard line to keep the clock moving. On the next play, he did everything he could not to score a touchdown, but the Browns wanted him to score, so the defenders lifted him into the endzone for a touchdown.
This is the randomness we deal with as fantasy managers. I for one have now won a Week 5 matchup that I otherwise would not have without this bizarre play. But there are many others who I’m sure are on the other side of this coin. And if so, don’t beat yourself up about it. Certainly, we’re here to win our leagues and gain those bragging rights (and prizes) we all desire, but we can’t predict the future. Focus on making the best decisions you can based on the information you have and keep putting yourself out there. Hopefully, the law of large numbers plays out, and the randomness regresses to a point where those good decisions pay off and put you over the top.
And now, let’s turn to our risers, fallers, and dynasty stashes in this week’s Fantasy Faceoff Recap.
Risers
Kyle Pitts
(TE2, 9 receptions, 119 yards, 1 TD, 26.9 points)
This was the breakout game we have been waiting for from the rookie tight end. Kyle Pitts entered the league, and fantasy football lineups, with big expectations, with many expecting top three tight end performances from the beginning. And while it’s really easy to get excited about rookies, we have to remember they’re rookies. It is rare a rookie steps into the NFL and is an immediate star. Even Justin Jefferson took several weeks to get rolling last season, and he had one of the best rookie receiver seasons in history. This was an encouraging performance from Pitts, that saw Atlanta using him how we expected, as a receiving tight end. He was certainly assisted by Calvin Ridley’s absence, but hopefully, this proves to be the start of an upward trend for Pitts.
Robert Woods
(WR7, 12 receptions, 150 yards, 27.0 points)
While I’m sure the managers of Cooper Kupp were not pleased with this outcome, Robert Woods has finally gotten rolling in the Los Angeles offense, with 150 yards on 14 targets. Those 14 targets amounted to a stunning 40% target share, his most since week two where Woods finished with a 31% target share. While that target share will surely come back down, Woods was able to put up 27 PPR points without scoring a touchdown, demonstrating a solid floor without relying on the randomness of touchdowns. Further, this performance could help teams that roster Kupp, as now defenses are going to have to fully defend the Rams receivers, rather than focusing their energy on Kupp.
Dalton Schultz
(TE6, 6 receptions, 79 yards, 13.9 points)
In the past three weeks, Dalton Schultz has finished at TE1, TE5, and TE6, and has scored three touchdowns in that span. Since Michael Gallup’s injury, Schultz has risen as a prominent target for Dak Prescott, who has looked for Schultz 23 times in the past three games. This increased target share has moved Schultz into a TE1 role, at least as long as Gallup is out. If you picked up Schultz early, you may be benefiting from his performance, especially if you’ve been dealing with injuries from the likes of George Kittle and Rob Gronkowski, but if you haven’t, you should look to acquire Schultz, who is still available in over 30% of ESPN leagues.
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Fallers
Tyler Lockett
(WR36, 5 receptions, 57 yards, 10.7 points)
Before you roll your eyes at me and click away from the screen, hang with me on this one. Tyler Lockett is a clear top-tier receiver, who is both really good at football and also deserves to be rostered in fantasy leagues. However, if you’re rostering Lockett, you know you’re doing it for the weeks he scores 40 points, not the weeks he scores you 5-10. And this week could have easily been the former, with Russell Wilson overthrowing him on one long touchdown, Lockett having another one called back for a penalty, and Geno Smith dunking it instead of catching Lockett deep in the endzone. As mentioned in last week’s column, coming into this week Lockett only had one double-digit fantasy performance when having five or fewer receptions. That’s now two, but barely. The bigger concern I have for Lockett long-term is that Smith seems more likely to make short and medium passes than throw the deep ball, which is where Lockett is at his best. Hopefully the Seahawks work on this connection during practice, but for now, I expect D.K. Metcalf, Will Dissly, and Seattle’s running back room to see increased roles until Wilson returns.
T.J. Hockenson
(TE32, 2 receptions, 22 yards, 4.2 points)
TJ Hockenson entered this week at TE5 but has not reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 2. He has finished at or below TE20 in each of the past three weeks, quickly diminishing his prospects as the third-best fantasy tight end. Some of this can be attributed to the Lions offensive struggles over the past several weeks, with the team scoring less than 20 points for four consecutive weeks. More importantly, the Lions have so few true offensive weapons that defenses can focus their energy on slowing down Hockenson and be pretty successful. What is most concerning to me is his trend in targets. Hockenson was targeted 19 times in Weeks 1 and 2. Since then, he’s only been targeted on 13 occasions. Next week the Lions face the Cincinnati Bengals and will certainly need to throw to keep up, so Hockenson may see increased volume next week. For now, you’re likely sitting him on the bench until he proves it and has hopefully picked up a tight end such as Schultz or Dawson Knox as your TE1.
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Derek Carr
(QB29, 22-35, 206 yards, 1 INT, 3 carries, 10 yards, 7.24 points)
After beginning the season with three games of 350+ yards and two touchdowns, Derek Carr has failed to surpass 210 yards in the past two games, and this past Sunday had zero passing touchdowns. Carr was on pace for at least 4,000 pass yards and was becoming a consistent QB1, but Las Vegas has faced some tougher teams, and looking back, we can recognize that some of this early success was matchup dependent. Week 1 against the Ravens was a wild game, against a Ravens defense that is in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed. Weeks 2 and 3 were against the Steelers and the Dolphins, two teams that have not looked great this season. But in Weeks 4 and 5, Las Vegas faced the Chargers and the Bears, two defenses that have given top teams trouble (despite LA giving up 42 points to Cleveland yesterday). As for Carr, he will likely bounce back within a couple of weeks, potentially as early as next week against a Denver Broncos defense that couldn’t stop the Pittsburgh Steelers.
What is the Consistency Score?
Consistency Score: Running Backs
Consistency Score: Wide Receivers
Consistency Score: Tight Ends
Consistency Score: DST
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Dynasty Stashes
Justin Fields
(QB26, 12-20, 111, 1 TD, 3 carries, 4 yards, 8.84 points)
This is perhaps an obvious point, but I think it’s worth making. Justin Fields now has two NFL starts under his belt, and they have been subpar at best. And if you drafted Fields, you likely didn’t do so with the expectation that he’d be your QB1 by Week 5. The same can be said of Trey Lance, Mac Jones, and the other rookie quarterbacks from this season’s draft class. As with real football, fantasy teams who tanked for a dynasty quarterback, or so happened to be lucky in this year’s drafts, likely didn’t expect a new quarterback to solve their problems in a single season. Including Fields as a stash is simply a message to stay the course. You drafted him because you believe in him. It’s really easy to buy into recency bias and believe he will never breakout. But it is rare for rookie quarterbacks to be stars out the gate. Hopefully, you kept a serviceable quarterback in the meantime, or have planned to be in a rebuild for multiple seasons.
Darnell Mooney
(WR58, 3 receptions, 35 yards, 6.5 points)
On the receiving side of the Chicago Bears’ rookies is Darnell Mooney, who is WR53 on the season while playing for a Bears offense that is last in total offense and passing offense through Week 5. As can be seen by Fields’ 20 pass attempts, Chicago is a slow-paced, run-heavy team right now. This is a poor situation for pass-catchers and certainly plays a role in Mooney’s performance thus far. However, I am encouraged by Mooney’s performance when given the opportunity. Through five games, Mooney has 20 receptions on 31 targets and 261 yards. He has yet to find the endzone but is averaging over 10 yards per catch. With that pace, an eight-catch game for Mooney would translate to approximately 16 fantasy points without scoring a touchdown. That would have been good enough for WR20 this week. The Bears offense may continue to take this low-volume approach through 2021, especially as they get Fields up to speed. In the meantime, get Mooney into your lineups early, in preparation of 2022 and beyond.
Notable Targets
Kadarius Toney, 13 targets: Kadarius Toney made the dynasty stash portion of last week’s column after posting a top-30 wide receiver weekend. He follows that up by finishing as the fourth best receiver after a near 200-yard performance on 13 targets. Toney is a priority add with the injury troubles in New York, as Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton are all struggling with injuries.
Myles Gaskin, 10 targets: If you held onto Myles Gaskin to benefit from this performance, more power to you. Gaskin has looked invisible through four weeks, as has most of the Miami offense. But this week saw him have a significant role in the passing game that proliferated him to an RB2 finish. I suspect this is matchup dependent, as teams know the way to beat Tampa Bay is through the air. Nonetheless, if Gaskin maintains passing down usage, he returns as an RB2 moving forward.
Brandin Cooks, 5 targets: After averaging 10 targets per game through Week 3, Brandin Cooks has been held to just 12 targets in the past two weeks, with five of those coming against the New England Patriots. While this is a sign of some concern, the Patriots are known for taking out offense’s primary weapons, which has undoubtedly been Cooks through Week 4. Look for Cooks to see an increased role moving forward.
Dan Arnold, 8 targets: Many were looking forward to the emergence of Dan Arnold in his short career at Carolina, but since acquiring him two weeks ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars have quickly gotten him involved in their offense, targeting him 10 times since joining the team, compared to Arnold’s 11 targets in Carolina. That lifted Arnold to a top-10 tight end performance. Continue to track his usage, as this target share could lead to a solid floor.
Monday Night Preview
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Tonight will be the first opportunity I’ve had to get a good look at the Indianapolis Colts since the preseason, so there is a lot I’m hoping to learn from tonight’s matchup. For starters, I’m curious to see how Carson Wentz looks leading this offense and if there’s any fantasy upside for him moving forward. As all I have to go off of now is stats, a QB22 ranking through four weeks leaves much to be desired but studying a player and the situation around them can provide added insight.
Relatedly, I want to understand the receiving situation in Indianapolis. Through four games, they have seven players with at least 10 targets, two of which are running backs and two who are tight ends. Because of this, my perception of the offensive scheme is that they’re heavy on short passes, relying on clock management and wearing down the defense to make progress. Tonight should test that hypothesis.
As for the Ravens, I have similar questions as to their last Monday Night Football game…What is going on in that running back room? Ty’Son Williams had a strong start to the season but was off in Week 3 and missed Week 4 as a healthy scratch. The narrative has been that Williams is out and Latavius Murray is in, but I want to see what happens when both players are active. Murray seems to fit the Gus Edwards mold and Williams the J.K. Dobbins role, so it would be strange to me if the Ravens went this direction. Lots to learn from tonight’s game.
Lastly, I’m hopeful that Rashod Bateman can get his first NFL start and we can start gathering data on his impact both on the field, and in fantasy lineups.
As for tonight’s picks, I have Baltimore beating the 7.5 spread and I’m taking the under at 47.5 points. Get a look at the rest of our team’s picks and be on the lookout on Twitter for our Monday Night Football player props.
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