Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 7

Welcome toThe FF Faceoff’s weekly report, a first take at the biggest fantasy football takeaways from this weekend’s action. Each week we will provide an overall gut check from the week and nominate our risers, fallers, dynasty stashes, and more. Check it all out in Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 7.

We are now officially halfway through the fantasy regular season. Whether your league plays the full 18 weeks or ends a week early, we are hitting crunch time in fantasy leagues. Now is the time to set your team up for a run to make the playoffs or to prepare for the playoffs if you’re currently a favorite for one of those sacred spots. It’s more important than ever to get the best information to get your team on track and ready to win a championship. And with continued bye weeks and more injuries every week, staying in touch with our weekly recap and waiver wire column is exactly what you need to lead your team to victory. Let’s go.

Risers

A.J. Brown

(WR4, 8 receptions, 133 yards, 1 TD, 27.3 points)

Managers of A.J. Brown have been waiting weeks for this performance, which in many ways mirrors Brown’s 2020 trajectory. A slow start with some injury concerns, followed by increased efficiency throughout the season. Brown’s success is significantly tied to the success of Derrick Henry, who is taking up more and more of the opposing defense’s attention. There were moments where Kansas City had up to 10 men in the box, attempting to prevent that breakout run with have seen from Henry so many times. Honestly, we need to start having conversations about Henry as an MVP candidate. Because of the focus on Henry, Tennessee opened the game on Sunday with a play action pass to none other than A.J. Brown. And Brown continued to be efficient throughout the game, averaging over 16 yards per reception. This more balanced approach bodes well for Brown managers and the Tennessee offense in general.

Tua Tagovailoa

(QB3, 32-40, 291 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INT, 4 carries, 29 yards, 26.54 points)

Despite throwing two costly interceptions, Tua Tagovailoa finished the day as the third-best fantasy quarterback, putting together an impressive stat line with four touchdowns and an 80% completion rate. This was Tagovailoa’s second consecutive week as a top-12 quarterback, moving him towards the QB1 conversation. Both performances came against lower-tier defenses, suggesting he is more likely a matchup-dependent streaming option, carrying your team through bye weeks. Over the next five weeks, he faces Buffalo, Houston, Baltimore, the Jets, and Carolina, so you’re likely not playing him next week, but he could be a valuable Week 9 flyer as we approach the playoffs.

Khalil Herbert

(RB5, 18 carries, 100 yards, 5 receptions, 33 yards, 18.3 points)

This is simply promoting Khalil Herbert from a dynasty stash to a contender for an RB2 role. Despite Damien Williams coming off of IR, Herbert had over 20 touches, including five receptions, despite being seen as a “run between the tackles” back. What is most impressive is that Herbert put up a 100-yard rushing game against the toughest rush defense in the league. Now, I have started thinking of Chicago as a “running-back proof” offense, as that seems to be their clear strength, but that takes nothing away from what Herbert did on Sunday. I’m curious what this means for the eventual return of David Montgomery. With three solid running backs, do the Bears move towards a larger committee, or do they find a trade option to improve their 2022 NFL Draft situation?

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Fallers

Chuba Hubbard

(RB27, 12 carries, 28 yards, 4 receptions, 28 yards, 9.6 points)

After getting 24 carries and five receptions in Week 5, there was hope that Hubbard could be a workable replacement while Christian McCaffrey was out. But since then, he has seen a decreased workload and decreased efficiency. Some of this can likely be attributed to the woes of the Panthers offense, which has only one passing touchdown in the past two weeks and a high rate of incompletions. But also, I think this is simply a case of “Chuba Hubbard isn’t CMC.” We saw this last year with Mike Davis, who began incredibly as he replaced McCaffrey, but throughout the season slowly decline. Next week could be positive for Hubbard, who matches up against a New England defense that just gave up plenty of offense to the Jets’ running backs, but if you’re using Hubbard as an RB2, I suggest you look to trade or search the waivers.

Patrick Mahomes

(QB20, 20-35, 206 yards, 1 INT, 1 fumble, 6 carries, 35 yards, 7.74 points)

I intentionally did not have Mahomes lead off this portion of the column to avoid the associated sense of panic and worry about one of the best quarterbacks in the league. There is no panic when it comes to Patrick Mahomes. But I do wonder if we should temper expectations moving forward. Mahomes entered this season being drafted as the number one fantasy quarterback, with some drafting him within the first five rounds. He is currently QB5 overall and is tied with Zach Wilson for the most interceptions. While QB5 is still phenomenal, we have seen a slight decline in his fantasy performance, but I expect that to bounce back throughout the season. Remember, there was a similar conversation about Aaron Rodgers after Week 1, who barely scored a point in that game and yet is now QB8.

Brandin Cooks

(WR44, 5 receptions, 21 yards, 7.1 points)

The Houston Texans had their fourth game scoring less than 10 points and and third game without scoring a touchdown. Coming into 2021, we expected this Texans team to struggle, but after they put up 37 points on Jacksonville in Week 1, we didn’t expect it to be this bad. They are now clearly a matchup dependent team who will get blown out by some teams and play respectably against others. Unfortunately, that means Brandin Cooks has similar chances. In games where Houston has scored less than 10 points, Cooks only has one double-digit fantasy performance. Additionally, Cooks has scored less than 10 fantasy points in all but one game where he had at least five receptions. Essentially, when Cooks isn’t getting double-digit targets, he’s not getting fantasy output. And next week, they face Jalen Ramsey and the LA Rams.

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Dynasty Stashes

Bryan Edwards

(WR23, 3 receptions, 43 yards, 1 TD, 13.3 points)

The second-year receiver for the Raiders continues to be a down-the-field threat, averaging over 10 yards per reception in his sixth game this season. Every week, our Twitter feeds get filled with “Bryan Edwards week” and while this was his best fantasy performance of the season, Edwards is still the third or fourth option in the Las Vegas passing game. This week posed a great opportunity for increase usage, with Darren Waller missing the game, and yet Edwards was fourth in targets among Las Vegas pass catchers. The talent is there. The efficiency is there. But we have yet to see the increase in usage that warrants “must-start” status. That said, the talent is there to justify a stash.

Robby Anderson

(WR57, 3 receptions, 14 yards, 4.4 points)

Oftentimes when identifying dynasty stashes, I look to include a young talent who got minimal touches but was efficient and thus has that “break out” potential we so often look for. But this week is different with Robby Anderson, who has now gone six consecutive weeks with under 50 receiving yards and his third game with fewer than 20 yards. And it’s not for a lack of trying. Since week four, Anderson has been targeted 38 total times, but has only caught 13 of those passes. He is averaging less than 0.8 points per target, compared to 2.3 points per receptions. Anderson is a stash for me because the talent is clearly there, but the connection with Sam Darnold simply isn’t. He is droppable in redraft leagues, especially if you’re struggling with bye week conundrums, but for dynasty, I’d leave him on the bench and hope for improvements next year.

Notable Targets

Tee Higgins, 15 targets: While the story out of Cincinnati has rightfully been about Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins showed an increased role in this offense, leading the team and the league in targets at 15. That said, those targets translated to only seven receptions, diminishing the overall impact of that target share. Nonetheless, managers of Higgins should feel encouraged moving forward, as a double-digit target share should lead to increased performance for the second-year receiver.

Marquise Brown, 14 targets: There’s a common thread among the notable targets for the week, with several seeing significant targets but lacking the receptions to match those opportunities. Marquise Brown was perhaps the worst case of this, with only five catches on 14 targets. Despite that, he still finished as a top-10 receiver, suggesting his significant upside. Brown easily could have ended in the top three to five receivers. If other managers in your league are not sold on the “name capital” that Brown presents, he could easily be a trade target.

Calvin Ridley, 10 targets: Despite his fourth consecutive game with double-digit targets, Calvin Ridley only came home with four receptions and just 12.6 points. While that is not what fantasy managers hope for with Ridley, I think this simply shows Ridley’s consistent floor. The narrative around Ridley has been down this year, and I think that’s unfair. He hasn’t lost you any weeks yet. He maybe hasn’t been the difference maker that won you a week yet, but with his upside that will come. Stay the course with Ridley. Or take the chance to buy low.

Jalen Reagor, 2 targets: This is a disappointing trend, as there was plenty of well-deserved hype around Jalen Reagor entering 2021. Unfortunately, the Eagles offense isn’t at the point where it can support multiple talented receivers. I think Reagor is worth holding onto in dynasty leagues, but as of now, Jalen Hurts and maybe Kenneth Gainwell are the only Philadelphia players I’m looking to roster. But Reagor is worth stashing in Dynasty leagues, as improved pass accuracy from Hurts could bring significant upside for Reagor in the future.

Monday Night Preview

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

Going into this season, I would have said this had the potential for a shootout with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. However, with Wilson injured and the Saints continuing to control Winston, this game is likely to look very different. What I hope to see tonight is an opened-up Saints offense coming off the bye who is ready to let Winston cook. What I think we’ll actually see is a run-heavy approach by New Orleans.

Which leads me to what I’m looking for in tonight’s game. Alvin Kamara has not performed to his draft position. He is currently RB10 on a points per game basis, which is still getting you the RB1 performance you drafted him as, but he hasn’t yet had that performance that demonstrates his ceiling. I think in some ways this is similar to what we said earlier about Calvin Ridley and that is Kamara has an incredible floor, and we just need to hold strong until he hits his ceiling.

Lastly, I’m looking to see improvement from Geno Smith. I thought we would see more from him against Pittsburgh last week, but now he returns home against a bottom-10 pass defense. I could see Seattle coming out taking a couple deep passes to Tyler Lockett to keep the defense honest, which could open up the pass game, especially if Smith and Lockett have been working on that connection in practice.

That said, I’m anticipating a low-scoring affair in what could prove to be a low-pace game. I have New Orleans beating the spread at 4.5 points and am taking the under at 43.5. But if I’ve learned anything this year, it’s that these primetime games are simply unpredictable.

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