In fantasy football and the NFL, year three is typically when we see players break out. A perfect example from this past of a third-year break-out player is Jalen Hurts. In his first year, he backed up Carson Wentz and took over the QB1 role to end the year. In year two, we saw him flash his fantasy potential with his rushing ability but saw that his passing ability still needed work. This year, he ended up a top-three fantasy quarterback because of what he was able to do through the air and on the ground. 

Yes, some of these names had great seasons in 2022. However, I’ll be breaking down the top options from the 2021 NFL Draft class. I’ll be breaking down these players who can really take that next step into the top-tier status for fantasy football purposes. Continue reading Fantasy Football 2023: 3rd-Year Breakout Candidates and see who can take that next step in 2023. 

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence

Even though Trevor Lawrence was pretty streaky in 2022, he ended up QB7 overall in fantasy. With how bad the Urban Meyer era went in his rookie year, I would consider this past season his rookie year with new coach Doug Pederson. We have seen third-year breakouts with quarterbacks in the past few seasons. A few examples are Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa. 

Lawrence flashed his fantasy football ceiling with his 300-yard and four-touchdown performance against Dallas in Week 15. With the addition of Calvin Ridley to pair up with Christian Kirk, I expect more consistency with Lawrence this upcoming year along with more explosiveness in the offense. If you miss out on the initial wave of top quarterbacks early in your drafts, I would be comfortable drafting Lawrence and his upside for 2023. He can absolutely take that next step into the top-tier fantasy football quarterbacks. 

Justin Fields

Another third-year quarterback that could break out in a big way is Justin Fields. This man was the QB6 overall while only playing 15 games and having no weapons to throw the ball to. Chicago has plenty of draft capital including the number one overall pick along with the most cap space to spend. The Bears will most definitely find some weapons for Fields to throw the ball to.  

I can’t stress how much of an advantage it is to have a mobile quarterback in fantasy football and Fields is the perfect example of why. He only threw for 17 touchdowns and a little over 2,200 yards in 2022 which isn’t great. However, he rushed for 8 touchdowns and gained over 1,100 yards on the ground. Including seven games where he had over 80 yards rushing.

No matter what the Bears decide to do in the offseason, it is almost impossible to be worse at the receiver position than they were last year. Fields could skyrocket into top-three territory next year with a better team around him.

Trey Lance

This one is a bit complicated so just hang with me for a minute. 

We have not seen much of Trey Lance since he entered the league in 2021. However, I still believe that he could be one of the more electrifying players in the NFL if he can stay on the field. In 2021, he sat behind Jimmy Garoppolo and filled in a few times throughout the season when he went down. Even though his stats didn’t light the world on fire, he showed flashes along with his running ability which is huge for fantasy football quarterbacks. 

Lance was appointed as QB1 to start the year in 2022. In Week 1, he played in a monsoon against Chicago and didn’t do very well. In Week 2, he broke his ankle and ends up out the rest of the year. Brock Purdy enters after Garoppolo gets hurt again and gets them to the NFC title game before getting hurt. It’s unlikely at the moment for Purdy to start. Even though the 49ers won games with Purdy and he looked good, it still doesn’t take away that Lance was drafted third overall, has a ton of capital invested in him, and that Lance has a much higher ceiling than Purdy does. 

Coming out of North Dakota State, Lance was electric on the ground as a runner and excelled at the deep ball. These are two things that Kyle Shanahan’s offense has been missing and why they went up to get Lance third overall. For fantasy purposes, Lance’s ceiling is equivalent to Hurts. We saw Hurts struggle as a passer at the start of his career but his rushing ability put him in very good status fantasy wise and we saw his passing ability catch up to his rushing this past year.

If Lance starts the year, which I expect he does, he is a great buy-low candidate. Not to mention, a massive breakout ceiling that is sorely missing with a lot of fantasy quarterbacks. 

Running Backs

Travis Etienne

Due to a foot injury in his rookie season, last year was the first year on the field for Etienne in the NFL and he showed a lot of promise. This past season was pretty up and down for him but he ended it on a high note. He started the first four games with under 10 fantasy points before going on a five-week run of double-digit points, including two 20+ point outings. However, he can back down to earth in the second half of the year before finishing the postseason with two good outings.

The big thing I notice with Etienne is volume. Doug Pederson and his staff have shown that they can make him a workhorse. Additionally, he doesn’t have much competition around him, and he gets valuable touches out of the backfield as well. While he was outside the top 12 last season for running back fantasy points, there could be an opportunity for him to sneak into that realm in 2023. Overall, I view him as a high-end RB2 with low-end RB1 upside. 

Kenneth Gainwell

There is a real opportunity that Gainwell could end up with the lead role in Philadelphia to start the season next year. Miles Sanders is a free agent and will more than likely end up elsewhere. Outside of Boston Scott, Gainwell looks to be the man in the backfield unless they draft a running back. Last year, Sanders had over 1,200 yards on the ground and 11 touchdowns. Even though fantasy points distribution is all over the place in Philadelphia, the RB1 role is still a good one to target. 

In the Super Bowl, Gainwell had as many carries as Sanders did. On top of that, he ended up outproducing him. Gainwell also showed that he could catch out of the backfield with four receptions in the Super Bowl, which is big for fantasy running backs. The cost for him in leagues like Best Ball is cheap right now and he could end up in a very valuable role for fantasy managers this upcoming season if he slides into the top running back role. 

Wide Receivers

DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith went into the 2022 fantasy season being drafted as a clear-cut number two receiver behind AJ Brown. Over the second half of the season and into the postseason, he emerged right there with Brown in the WR1 role. Even with the strong running game and touchdowns being taken away with Hurts’ rushing ability, the stats show that this offense can support two top-12 receivers.

Brown finished as the WR4 overall while Smith finished as WR10. This wide receiver duo should be looked at 1A and 1B in drafts this offseason. Furthermore, Smith was slow out of the gate but his second half of the season got him into the top 12 of fantasy wide receivers and I still think he could be slept on. This situation is similar to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Miami. Coming into the season, people were scared that the offense couldn’t support two receivers and that simply was just not the case. 

Week 11 – Week 18

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The chart above shows that these two receivers were neck in neck at the end of the year. This doesn’t include the postseason where Smith also had a great run while leading the team in receiving yards during the playoffs.

Another thing to factor into this, the game script went very well for Philly for most of the year. The schedule should be tougher next year and there won’t be as many games where they can sit on the ball in the second half and run out the clock. This could lead to more action through the air. I would not be surprised if Smith outscores Brown next season and could potentially be a top-five fantasy receiver.

Nico Collins

There wasn’t much to be excited about with Nico Collins in the 2022 season after finishing it prematurely with 481 yards and 2 touchdowns. Coming off a foot injury that he sustained in Week 13, he is coming into the 2023 season with a new quarterback and a lack of competition in the wide receiver room. Brandin Cooks is all but gone in Houston, leaving almost 100 targets up for grabs to another receiver. It also still isn’t clear if John Metchie will make his NFL debut after a bout with Leukemia. It’s very possible the Texans could bring another wide receiver in or draft one but right now, there isn’t much outside of Collins. 

The game script for Houston should have them trailing and needing to lean into the passing game, leaving Collins there for a lot of that volume. I am not suggesting Collins will be a WR1 at all but he could be a solid WR3 with WR2 upside. We’ve seen his teammate Cooks be in the same situation and produce. Collins could end up the top receiving option in Houston by default this upcoming year and that is worth something in fantasy. 

Kadarius Toney

I expect Kadarius Toney to be a hot topic this off-season for fantasy managers. Toney has been very difficult for fantasy owners but there is no doubt that he is a Percy Harvin-type game-changer when on the field. He upgraded at quarterback from Daniel Jones to Patrick Mahomes halfway through the year and joined a team that should be able to maximize his ability.

For him to truly break out in 2023, he needs to see the field more to really pay off. His constant hamstring problems caused him to miss 9 games in 2022.  Everyone saw what he did in the Super Bowl when he was on the field but the problem is he isn’t on the field enough to be a reliable fantasy player. The Chiefs need someone at the receiver position to step up so if he could get healthy and see the field more, the production should be there for him to break out. 

The Chiefs traded a third and sixth-round pick for the former first-rounder. Obviously, they saw something in him to do that trade even after acquiring JuJu Smith-Schuster and drafting Skyy Moore this offseason. Toney is one of the more explosive players in the league and if anyone could maximize his potential, it would be Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. 

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