Baker Mayfield Fantasy Football Outlook 2025: A Value QB1?
Deciding whether to draft Baker Mayfield for your 2025 fantasy football team is a critical choice that can shape your season. As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback, Mayfield delivered a fantastic 2024 season, making him a hot topic for fantasy football drafts. Today, I’ll break down the fantasy football outlook for Mayfield, helping you dominate your leagues.
Why Baker Mayfield Is a Top Fantasy Football Pick for 2025
Elite 2024 Performance
In 2024, Mayfield redefined his career. Impressively, he finished as a top-5 fantasy football quarterback with 4,500 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. His 22.3 points per game (PPG) and league-leading touchdown total showcase his ability to deliver consistent fantasy points. Additionally, with nearly 400 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, Mayfield proved he’s more than just a pocket passer. Overall, this makes him a reliable option for 2025.
Upgraded Receiving Corps
The Buccaneers bolstered their offense in the 2025 NFL Draft by selecting Ohio State’s WR Emeka Egbuka. Paired with veterans Mike Evans and a healthy Chris Godwin, plus rising stars Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton, Mayfield has one of the NFL’s best supporting casts in the league. This stacked offense boosts his passing volume and touchdown potential, solidifying his fantasy football value. Overall, this makes him a safe option for 2025.
Stable Offensive System
Despite a change in offensive coordinators, new OC Josh Grizzard’s experience as the 2024 passing game coordinator ensures continuity in Tampa Bay’s high-octane scheme. Head coach Todd Bowles has committed to maintaining the system that fueled Mayfield’s success, reducing concerns about a drop-off. Furthermore, Mayfield’s contract extension further cements his role as the team’s QB1.
Draft Value
Mayfield’s average draft position (ADP) for 2025 places him in rounds 7-8 in 12-team leagues. This makes him a solid value and someone who should be a very safe option. Additionally, this will allow you to prioritize elite running backs and wide receivers early on. Ultimately, his mid-tier QB1 upside at a reasonable cost makes him one of the safest picks in 2025 fantasy football drafts.
Explosive Playstyle
Impressively, Mayfield led the NFL in big-time throws in 2024. As a result, these high-impact plays translate to fantasy points. His pass-heavy offense (570 attempts in 2024) and knack for finding the end zone make him a consistent producer. Even without elite rushing stats.
Potential Risks of Drafting Baker Mayfield
Touchdown Regression Concerns
Mayfield’s 7.2% touchdown rate in 2024 was among the NFL’s highest. Unfortunately, this may raise concerns about regression. Analysts project a more modest 31 touchdowns in 2025 (4,350 yards, 13 INTs, 150 rushing yards, 2 TDs). While still strong, this dip could lower his ceiling in highly competitive fantasy football leagues.
Limited Rushing Upside
Unlike dual-threat quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson, Mayfield’s fantasy value relies heavily on passing. His projected 150-400 rushing yards and 2-3 touchdowns in 2025 are solid but won’t match the output of mobile QBs, capping his overall upside.
Competition in the QB1 Tier
Mayfield competes with quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, and Drake Maye in the QB10-15 range. Some of these players offer higher ceilings or safer floors, which could tempt managers to pass on Mayfield in favor of a more proven or dynamic option.
Best Fantasy League Formats for Drafting Baker Mayfield
1QB Redraft Leagues
In standard 1QB leagues, Mayfield is a steal in rounds 8-10. His ADP (currently 89th on Underdog Fantasy) allows you to build a strong roster of skill players before selecting a quarterback with top-5 potential. Pair him with a high-upside backup like Drake Maye or Kirk Cousins to hedge against regression.
Superflex/2QB Leagues
In Superflex or 2QB formats, Mayfield’s value rises due to the demand for starting quarterbacks. Target him in rounds 5-7 as a QB2 or low-end QB1. His stability and weapons make him a better choice than riskier options like Bryce Young.
Dynasty Leagues
For dynasty managers, Mayfield is a great “win-now” QB1 or QB2, especially for contending teams. At age 30, his long-term value is limited compared to younger QBs like C.J. Stroud, but his 2025 production makes him a cost-effective trade target. In rookie drafts, prioritize elite prospects over Mayfield unless you need immediate QB help.
How Baker Mayfield Compares to Other QBs
Here’s how Mayfield stacks up against quarterbacks in his ADP range (QB6-10):
Jordan Love: Younger with a high-upside offense but less proven than Mayfield. Verdict: Mayfield is safer; Love has a higher ceiling.
Drake Maye: A rookie with dual-threat potential but an unproven offense. Verdict: Mayfield for redraft; Maye for dynasty.
Trevor Lawrence: Boosted by new weapons but inconsistent. Verdict: Mayfield’s stability wins.
Jared Goff: Stable but less explosive. Verdict: Mayfield offers more upside.
Mayfield’s proven 2024 stats and favorable ADP make him a top choice in this tier.
Draft Strategy: When and How to Pick Baker Mayfield
Late-Round QB Strategy: Draft Mayfield in rounds 10-13 in 1QB leagues to maximize value. Focus on elite RBs, WRs, and TEs early, then secure Mayfield as a high-floor QB1 with top-8 upside.
Superflex Approach: In Superflex leagues, grab Mayfield in rounds 8-10 as a QB2, pairing him with a high-ceiling QB1 like Joe Burrow for a balanced roster.
Dynasty Trades: For contending dynasty teams, trade for Mayfield as a short-term QB1/QB2. His dynasty trade value (7th among QBs) makes him a buy-low candidate before the season.
Final Verdict: Should You Draft Baker Mayfield in 2025?
In short, yes, you should draft Baker Mayfield in 2025 fantasy football. Especially if you’re targeting value in rounds 8-10 or need a reliable QB2 in Superflex leagues. His elite 2024 performance, upgraded weapons, and stable system make him a mid-tier QB1 with top-8 upside. While regression and limited rushing stats are concerns, his ADP and consistency outweigh the risks.
Best Scenarios:
1QB Leagues: Pick him in rounds 8-10 for a safe QB1.
Superflex Leagues: Target him in rounds 6-8 as a QB2.
Dynasty Leagues: Trade for him if you’re contending in 2025.
Monitor Evans’ and Godwin’s health during the offseason, as their presence is key to Mayfield’s success. With the right draft strategy, Mayfield can be the steal that leads your team to a fantasy football championship. Ultimately, Mayfield is a very safe QB1 option for 2025 and beyond.
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