Fantasy Football Breakouts 2024: Top 5 Running Backs
Fantasy Football draft season is BACK! We made it—look at us! Here we are, just a few weeks away from the Thursday night kickoff. Whether you’re blasting through 10 podcasts a day at 2x speed or have been locked in a dark room since January trying to convince yourself that this is Trey Sermon’s year, one thing is clear: identifying Fantasy Football Breakouts in 2024 is key to executing a successful draft.
In this article, I’ll break down the top five fantasy football breakouts at the running back position primed for a breakout season. And if you’re still locked in that room, please come out. Your family misses you.
2024 Fantasy Football Breakouts: Top 5 Running Backs
Here are my top five fantasy football breakouts at the running back position for 2024.
Tyjae Spears: ADP 100 – RB35
I believe we will see something special from this backfield committee. New Head Coach Brian Callahan has described Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard as “interchangeable.” He didn’t regurgitate the old thunder and lightning cliché. Additionally, he didn’t lean on the “best hand,” or the “one, two punch” platitude. Notably, he said, “INTERCHANGEABLE.” It sounds like Tennessee will be able to play their style of ball whether Pollard or Spears are on the field. I do not foresee a 2023 Gibbs/Montgomery, Detroit type of situation playing out for this Titans backfield committee in 2024.
Here are a few Spears stats to keep in mind:
- 2023 RB9 in targets
- 2023 RB10 in receptions
- Averaged 3.15 yards after contact (Henry, who we think of as a bulldozer, averaged 3.32 yards after contact)
While I would not be surprised if Pollard has a bounce-back year, Tyjae is going almost two full rounds later, and I do not see much of a different fantasy outcome for the two Tennessee Running Backs.
Jaleel McLaughlin: ADP 169 – RB51
While July gave us a social media meltdown about the potential of Javonte Williams not making the roster, he seems to have found himself in the good graces of Head Coach Sean Peyton, as he has been seen running solely with the ones in camp.
This is fantastic news for my love of Jaleel McLaughlin. Peyton loves to scheme for the running backs and will certainly do so with McLaughlin in mind, which will keep opposing defenses honest.
Sure, his size is something to keep in mind considering he clocks in just under 190lbs, and Peyton does tend to lean towards meatier guys. That didn’t seem to stop the 190lbs Darren Sproles from carving out quite the nice role in Peyton’s offense; averaging 62 carries, 94 targets, and 5.5 receiving touchdowns in his three-year spell in New Orleans.
With PFF grades of 82.8 as a runner and 85.2 as a receiver, McLaughlin showed a fair amount of promise last year. If he can muster up a Sproles-type role in this Denver offense, you will be thrilled with his round 13 value.
Jonathan Brooks: ADP 84 – RB28
Jonathan Brooks is still recovering from an ACL injury that he sustained against TCU last November. While modern medicine has evolved in such a way that an ACL injury is no longer the final chapter in a player’s career, many drafters are opting to pass on the Panthers rookie stud. How could I blame them? When you take into consideration Carolina’s whopping 2-15 record last season, and the fact that the former Longhorn is not slated to be ready for week one, anyone with half of a brain would take extreme caution when presented with the possibility of drafting Brooks.
Lucky for us, no one has ever won their fantasy league by being “extremely cautious.” Just ask those risk-averse pioneers who drafted Breece Hall at cost last year. Ultimately, Brooks might be a better asset from a dynasty fantasy football perspective.
Taking calculated risks in your drafts can return league-winning dividends if you are armed with the proper information. Let’s look at some of Brooks’s collegiate statistics compared to two fantasy darlings; Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffery.
RECEPTION PERCENTAGE (targets/receptions):
Barkley: 81%
CMC: 82%
Brooks: 86%
PFF RUSHING GRADE:
Barkley: 83
CMC: 80.4
Brooks: 92
PFF ELUSIVENESS SCORE:
Barkley: 67
CMC: 73
Brooks: 140
If it wasn’t for his injury, Brooks would have been a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and would be going much higher than his current 7th-round pick in fantasy football drafts. If that still worries you then just scoop up Chubba Hubbard in the 10th round and secure that Carolina backfield.
Zamir White: ADP 66 – RB23
White became the lead back for the Las Vegas Raiders after Josh Jacobs pulled up with an injured quad in week 14 of last year. From that time on, White grabbed the backfield by the huevos and established his reign as the lead back in Las Vegas. So much so, that the staff felt comfortable moving off Josh Jacobs this past offseason.
Over the following four weeks, White would finally help the members of the “Zamir White Fantasy Football Truthers Club” look a lot less desperate, and a lot less sweaty. White’s 68.5% snap share, 45% route participation, and 9.6% target share turned him into the overall RB16 during that span.
White was ranked 17th in PFF Rushing grade, 18th in yards after contact, 3rd in total rushing yards, and 22nd in their Elusive Rating. Head Coach Antonio Pierce is there to stay. His defensive strategies and love of the run game will certainly afford White plenty of opportunity to cement himself as a true breakout this year. Pair that with his fifth-round ADP, and you could be looking at a league winner!
Isiah Pacheco: ADP 20 – RB10
Okay, okay. Maybe having Isiah Pacheco as a 2024 breakout candidate after finishing as a high-end RB2 last year is technically cheating. The thing is you can still get him at a discount. He’s going in the second, and sometimes third rounds of drafts as RB10-12 which means we are drafting him at what I believe to be his floor. In short, Pacheco should break out as a solid RB1 this year.
Pacheco finished the 2023 season as the overall RB17. He caught 88% of his 50 targets, was ranked 8th in yards per carry, and in his 205 rushing attempts, he only fumbled the ball once. In the end, PFF awarded Pacheco an 83.7 Rushing Grade.
Pacheco was essential to KC’s eventual Super Bowl win with 25+ touches in three of their four playoff games proving that Head Coach Andy Reid is all in on the former Rutgers back.
The Mariah Carey-esque winter thawing of Jerrick McKinnon is no longer a threat to the Kansas City backfield, and neither is the 15% snap share of Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Personally, I am thrilled in drafts where I am able to snag one of the elite WRs and can draft Isiah Pacheco as my RB1 in rounds two, or three.
Fantasy Football Breakouts 2024: Top Running Backs
Fantasy football breakouts at the running back position are vital to your draft strategy because they can deliver elite production at a much lower draft cost. While early-round running backs are often proven stars, finding the next group of fantasy football breakouts can give your team a significant edge. These emerging RBs typically have favorable situations, like increased workloads or improved offenses, allowing them to outperform expectations and deliver top-tier value.
Whether you’re playing in redraft leagues or making a title run in your dynasty fantasy football league, it’s important to identify breakouts. Securing a fantasy football breakouts in the middle rounds can transform your roster from competitive to dominant, giving you a key building block without the price tag of a high draft pick.
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