Fantasy Football Busts: 10 Risky RBs to Avoid in 2025
Every year, fantasy football managers fall into the same trap. That being, chasing last season’s stats and hoping lightning strikes twice. But here’s the truth. Fantasy football is as much about predicting what won’t happen as it is about forecasting what will happen. Just because a player blew up in 2024 doesn’t mean he’ll repeat in 2025. Value is everything, and sometimes that shiny name on the draft board is fool’s gold. Continue reading to learn about these potential fantasy football busts for 2025.
Fantasy Football Busts: 10 RBs To Avoid
This article breaks down 10 running backs who are getting drafted way too early in Underdog Best Ball formats. These are the players who could seriously bust at their current ADP. Whether it’s age, competition, workload, or just flat-out bad team context, these are the landmines you’ll want to dodge.
1. Saquon Barkley – ADP: 1.02
Saquon Barkley took the league by storm in 2024 during his first year with the Philadelphia Eagles. He racked up a jaw-dropping 2,005 rushing yards to lead the NFL, and his 13 touchdowns ranked eighth overall. He finished the season as the RB1 in half-PPR formats, which made fantasy managers extremely happy. However, let’s pump the brakes.
History hasn’t been kind to RB1 repeaters. The last time a running back finished as the RB1 in back-to-back seasons was Todd Gurley in 2017 and 2018. Since then, it’s been a carousel of one-hit fantasy football wonders. Why? The amount of volume required to hit RB1 status is massive and hard to repeat. Just ask Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, or Derrick Henry.
Barkley’s talent isn’t the issue. However, at this ADP, you’re drafting him at his absolute ceiling. Ultimately, with regression looming and wear-and-tear building, Barkley feels more like a trap than a treasure at pick 1.02.
2. Jonathan Taylor – ADP: 2.08
Jonathan Taylor came into the league on fire, finishing as the RB5 and RB1 in his first two seasons. Since then? RB34, RB33, and RB9. The shine has definitely worn off.
At pick 2.08, you’re drafting Taylor as if he’s still the guy who dominated back in 2021. But his situation isn’t ideal. Vegas has the Colts projected at just 7.5 wins. That doesn’t exactly scream high-scoring offense.
To make matters worse, dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson and even backup Daniel Jones are bound to vulture red zone opportunities. Overall, Taylor has name value. However, he may not be worth the cost.
3. Omarion Hampton – ADP: 4.04
The Chargers shocked everyone by taking North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Fantasy managers went crazy, and now he’s being drafted in the early fourth, sometimes even the late third. Let’s slow down.
Furthermore, the Chargers also signed Najee Harris. Recently, he has posted 1,000 rushing yards in every season of his career. Hampton might be the future, but assuming he takes the starting job from Najee right away is a reach.
There’s too much uncertainty for this price tag. Specifically, Hampton might have more value in dynasty fantasy football leagues. However, he’s no sure thing in redraft formats, especially this early.
4. James Cook – ADP: 4.06
James Cook stunned everyone with 16 rushing touchdowns in 2024 after scoring just two in each of his first two seasons. That explosion has him flying up draft boards. However, let’s be real. That kind of touchdown spike is begging for regression.
Cook is also in a bit of a contract standoff with the Bills, who seem hesitant to pay him. Meanwhile, Buffalo keeps hyping up second-year back Ray Davis, who could easily eat into Cook’s workload.
A reduced touchdown count, plus a potential committee, makes Cook a risky pick at this price. All in all, that makes Cook a potential fantasy bust in 2025.
5. Alvin Kamara – ADP: 6.01
Alvin Kamara is entering his age-30 season, the dreaded cliff for running backs. He’s made a name for himself by being elusive and breaking tackles, but those traits have clearly been declining the past few years.
Furthermore, the Saints quarterback situation is a major concern. Needless to say, it’s a mess. Tyler Shough, a second-round rookie, is projected to start. That’s not exactly a recipe for red zone opportunities or sustained drives. Kamara’s glory days may be behind him. Don’t overpay for the name.
6. Tyrone Tracy – ADP: 7.08
Tyrone Tracy was a surprise breakout for the Giants in 2024, rushing for 839 yards and five scores. Not bad for a fifth-round pick. However, the Giants weren’t fully sold. Ultimately, they used a fourth-round pick on Cam Skattebo, a tough and productive college back who could immediately challenge for touches. Skattebo is the kind of guy who could take over this backfield without warning. At a seventh-round price, Tracy’s role is far too uncertain.
7. Rhamondre Stevenson – ADP: 9.02
Rhamondre Stevenson couldn’t shake off Antonio Gibson last season, and now the Patriots have added rookie TreVeyon Henderson. He was a second-round pick, and the coaching staff is already raving about him.
With Mike Vrabel coming in as head coach, the writing’s on the wall. Henderson is the future, and Stevenson is looking more like a backup. At this point, he’s just a handcuff. That’s not someone you want to spend a ninth-round pick on.
8. D’Andre Swift – ADP: 9.03
Even at a slightly discounted ADP on Underdog, D’Andre Swift is a landmine.
Yes, he’s reunited with Bears offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. But that’s the same Ben Johnson who ran him out of Detroit in favor of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Chicago doesn’t have a Gibbs or Montgomery, but they do have Roschon Johnson and rookie Kyle Monangai. These aren’t stars, but they don’t need to be to outplay Swift, who averaged a dreadful 3.8 yards per carry in 2024. That ranked 39th out of 44 qualified backs.
There’s no upside here, only risk.
9. Tank Bigsby – ADP: 11.11
After a brutal rookie season, Tank Bigsby bounced back with 766 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in 2024. It was a nice story, but not one I’m buying into.
New offensive coordinator Liam Cohen brings a committee-style approach from Tampa Bay. Jacksonville also added Bhayshul Tuten in the draft, along with Travis Etienne.
Bigsby is the clear third wheel in a three-headed monster. That’s a role fantasy managers should avoid.
10. Jerome Ford – ADP: 12.07
Cleveland spent two Day 2 picks on Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson. That tells you all you need to know about how they view Jerome Ford.
Unfortunately, he’s not the guy. Additionally, unless there’s an injury ahead of him, Ford is basically a depth piece with almost no path to consistent touches. Even in the 12th round, there are better darts to throw.
There’s nothing worse than burning a pick on a player who flatlines while someone else grabs the next breakout. Fantasy football isn’t just about chasing points. It’s about knowing when to pivot, fade the hype, and find value where others aren’t looking.
These 10 running backs are walking red flags at their current ADP. However, that doesn’t mean they’re bad players. They’re just potentially bad picks at their current price. Let your league mates take the bait while you clean up with smarter, more efficient picks.
All in all, be sure to stay sharp and draft smart. Do your best to avoid the running backs who you think will be fantasy football busts this year.
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