Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week – Week 12

If there is ever a time of year that is most associated with football, it’s Thanksgiving. The tradition of NFL-style football on Thanksgiving dates back to 1934 when the Chicago Bears defeated the (then) Detroit Spartans. For the majority of the time since, an addition to the tradition has been the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys will always host home games on the fourth Thursday of November. The next two teams with the most Turkey Day appearances are the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears.

Fun fact: every team has played on Thanksgiving except the Jacksonville Jaguars.

After your belt-busting meal on Thursday, you should have plenty of time to digest the early slate of games which includes the NFL’s first-ever Black Friday football. By the time Sunday rolls around, you should be hungry for more with this week’s Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week on tap; it’s sure to fill you up, but this time with fantasy points. A few honorable mentions should go out to the Commanders vs. Cowboys, Texans vs. Jaguars, and the Ravens vs. Chargers, as all of those matchups have similar shootout potential. Instead, my Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week is the…

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills

If you looked at this game on paper at the beginning of the year, some people may have been hesitant to label this one as a possible shootout. Not because the offenses weren’t good, but because we expected their defenses to be great. Heading into Week 12, neither the Eagles nor the Bills have been elite. Both defensive units have suffered some key injuries throughout the campaign, and that should open things up for both offenses to impose their wills. Let’s see how each position breaks down:

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts has been a top-end quarterback all season but enters Week 12 facing a Buffalo defense that ranks 4th in points given up to the quarterback position. For reference, Hurts faced the 6th and 5th best defenses against QBs in his last two outings (against KC and Dallas respectively). Additionally, he averaged 178 yards and 1 TD passing and added 32 yards and 1.5 TDs rushing. Those are not the elite numbers that he is capable of putting up. You most likely have no choice but to start Hurts, but I would temper expectations for this tricky, but exploitable matchup.

Josh Allen has a different situation ahead of him this week. While Buffalo is the 4th worst matchup for Hurts, Philadelphia is the 4th best matchup for Allen. Looking back on the year, he has taken advantage of plus matchups and should continue to do so this week. The only pause for concern is Allen’s interception totals. He is tied (with Sam Howell) for the most interceptions on the year (12) and Philadelphia ranks 5th in interceptions. Despite his propensity to turn the ball over, Allen should overcome and put up solid numbers at home. Queue up your elite QB option with confidence.

Running Backs

If Buffalo is vulnerable anywhere on defense, it’s against the running back position. They’ve only allowed three 100-yard rushers on the year. Notably, they have ceded a hefty amount of receiving yards and total touchdowns to RBs (489-8). This bodes well for D’Andre Swift and the Philly rushing attack. Swift is coming off an impressive performance against a solid Chiefs’ defense (who are better than Buffalo at stopping the run) where he went 12-76-1 on the ground, averaging 6.3 YPC, while adding 3-31-0 through the air. Look for Swift to get 15+ touches in a more favorable matchup. I like Swift over Raheem Mostert, Josh Jacobs, and Brian Robinson Jr.

Last week, Kenneth Gainwell only played on 30% of snaps and had his worst offensive output of the season (1 carry, 1 yard; 1/1 rec, 4 yards). The only reason he’s been semi-relevant this entire year, besides Week 1 when he was the starter, is because he lucked himself into a few short-yardage touchdowns. Beyond that, he’s only been helpful in hurting your roster space and Swift fantasy points. He’s a no-standalone-value handcuff. All things considered, do not start him.

James Cook has been hot and cold all season, vacillating between meaningful production and frustrating flops. His matchup against Philadelphia’s #1 ranked rushing defense has me inclined to project the latter for Cook. He should still receive a sufficient amount of work to make him a viable start, especially in half or full PPR formats, but I wouldn’t expect a huge performance. You’re hoping for a screen or wheel route that he takes to the house. Cook is a backend RB2 this week.

Latavius Murray has had double-digit touches in the last two games, but only one game produced a usable fantasy line. With the worst matchup possible on tap, it’s hard to trust a TD-dependent backup option who has to compete with his RB1 and QB for goal line carries. If you’re desperate, he might not goose you… Then again, he might not.

Wide Receivers

Philadelphia

After a 7-week tear and a well-deserved bye week, AJ Brown returned to put up a forgettable 1-catch, 8-yard on 4 targets effort. It was his worst performance by far on the year. On his road to redemption lie the Buffalo Bills who just erased Garrett Wilson from existence, allowing him to catch 2 of 8 targets for 9 yards last week. It’s scary to enter a shutdown matchup after just suffering a shutdown, but he’s AJ Brown. You’re playing him. You’re just hoping Nick Sirianni can scheme Brown open when the defense is keying in on him.

What Brown lacked last game, DeVonta Smith gained, or at least it felt that way. His 6-99-0 line didn’t win anyone their week singlehandedly. However, it did allow him to continue a string of now three games of satisfactory performances, after disappointing the previous five. The matchup may be poor, but given his talent, opportunity, and the fact they’ll need him to compete, I’d still be comfortable firing him up as a WR2. I’d play Smith over Jaylen Waddle, Christian Kirk, and DK Metcalf.

Philadelphia’s deeper options at WR in Olamide Zaccheaus and Julio Jones are no options at all, even in 14-16 team leagues.

Buffalo

Stefon Diggs was one of the most consistent wide receivers in the NFL through the first nine weeks of the season. That was until he threw up a pair of duds these last two. This week, Diggs will return to form as he’ll line up across from the league’s worst fantasy defense against wide receivers. Diggs was already cemented in your WR slot, so not much more needs to be said. You can sleep comfortably knowing that the matchup couldn’t be any better on paper, and the last time he faced the Eagles (2019), Diggs crushed with 7-167-3. Sweet dreams!

Gabe Davis is the poster child for the boom-or-bust moniker. He either gets into the endzone and you’re happy, or his floor is literally zero and you probably lost your week. Heck, in two of his last three games, he fell flat on his floor and scored exactly zero points for your team. Whichever outcome unfolds this week, it takes some real stones to start him in your lineup. If you’re an underdog and need some high-upside plays, you can certainly roll the dice with Davis. If you’re a favorite though, I don’t know if I’d risk the possible dead spot in my lineup. However, if the best matchup in the league incentivizes you, then I wish you luck on your gamble. If you have a weak stomach, then consider benching Davis. Needless to say, he’s a massive risk.

Furthermore, I think fantasy managers are more interested in playing Khalil Shakir against the Eagles after he just put up 3-115-1 against the New York Jets. If he was able to do that against the stingiest defense against WRs, then imagine what he could do against the easiest defense against wideouts. If you want to roll him out there in your flex, you could certainly do worse for yourself. Just don’t expect last week’s numbers to be his new norm. Obviously, his stat line last week was his best output by far this season. Prior to that, he had only scored once and hadn’t broken 100 yards at all. Personally, I’d be willing to consider starting Shakir over Rondale Moore, Jakobi Meyers, and Zay Jones.

Tight Ends

Once Dallas Goedert went down with a fractured forearm in Week 9, the tight end position for Philadelphia immediately became irrelevant. There’s no reason to look toward Jack Stoll, Grant Calcaterra, or Albert Okwuegbunam. There are better options off of waivers like Jonnu Smith, Cade Otton, or Michael Mayer.

Dalton Kincaid, on the other hand, is a vital piece of the Bills’ passing attack. He has averaged nearly seven catches a game over his last five, and has seemingly jumped to second in the pecking order for Allen behind Diggs. Additionally, Philly is giving up the 7th most points to fantasy tight ends. The matchup aligns with what’s been an auto-start in Kincaid while Dawson Knox has been out with a wrist injury. As long as Knox sits again, which is likely since the Bills aren’t ready to activate him from the IR with their bye in Week 13, then Kincaid is a top-5 tight-end option this week. Fire him up over the likes of Trey McBride, Dalton Schultz, and David Njoku. 

Overall, there are a lot of big-time matchups this holiday weekend. However, none with as much star power as this game between the Eagles and Bills. Despite both defenses being formidable in various ways, there’s a lot to like with two of the best signal-callers in the NFL behind center. To find more things to like, head over to fffaceoff.com for all the latest news, articles, and analyses. We got start/sits,  prop bets, and Fantasy Metrics that Matter, plus a whole lot more. Be sure to follow us on Facebook, X, and Instagram @fffaceoff, or me @WSFilosofee. Happy Thanksgiving!

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