As I kicked off this weekly column I stressed the difference between the stats that actually matter and those that don’t. And with another week of the season in the rearview mirror, we have even better data to work with. Make your rosters and lineups the best you possibly can for Week 7 with the fantasy football metrics that matter.

Targets per Route Run

Buy the Dip on Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua was a revelation to kick off the 2023 season, and he’s been either one of the best waiver wire pickups or last-round dart throws for many fantasy managers. But with Cooper Kupp getting worked back into the offense, those managers rostering Nacua have been collectively whispering “keep it together” to themselves for a few weeks now.

With the general feeling in the fantasy community that this offense is going to course through Kupp moving forward Nacua, who was previously borderline untouchable, is on the table for many managers when it comes to trades. Pair that malaise with the fact that Nacua finished Week 6 as the 59th wide receiver in 0.5-PPR scoring with only four receptions (seven targets) for 26 yards and 4.6 fantasy points, and you’ve got a rare window of opportunity.

On the season, Nucua is still seventh overall in Targets per Route Run (Trgts/RR) at 30.09%. But more importantly, he’s still seeing well above the 20% Trgts/RR threshold over the last two weeks, with Kupp back in the fold. 29% and 27% Weeks 5 and 6.

And despite the duck that he just laid in Week 6, his 4.22 Consistency Score (CS) still ranks 11th among all receivers and 18th among all non-QB players. And his Median Fantasy Points is still an impressive 21.9, good for fifth among receivers.

With Nacua still a leader in two of the metrics that matter the most for fantasy football, there still being plenty of fantasy value to be had from Nacua rest of the season. Plus the fact that the Rams RB1 Kyren Williams is banged up and looks like he will miss a game or two, and the team’s No.2 running back Ronnie Rivers will miss even more time, meaning there could be a lot more passing opportunities for the Rams offense. So get those offers out there now. That window might slam shut after Week 7.

Backfield Usage

Jaylen Warren Sneaky Value

The old adage “Volume is King” for fantasy football running backs might be tired, but that doesn’t make it any less true. Using our backfield usage tool its clear that Jaylen Warren is getting a lot of usage alongside No.1 back Najee Harris in Pittsburgh.

Not only is Warren averaging 46% of total snaps and 44% of the opportunity share, but those opportunities are the more valuable type as well. Of the 36 targets that have gone to Steelers running backs, 25 (69%) of those have gone to Warren.

Currently, of the top 100 running backs in fantasy football, the average fantasy point per rush is 0.61. While the average fantasy point per target is 1.06. This means a target is roughly 73.8% more valuable, or just shy of two times more valuable than a carry. And that’s only for 0.5-PPR Scoring. The gap is even wider in full point PPR. This demonstrates how much more valuable Warren’s opportunities have been all season long.

Which is demonstrated in their respective Consistency Scores. Harris’s 1.47 ranks 29th among all running backs, while Warren’s 3.01 ranks 15th.

If you’re one of the unfortunate managers who lost J.K. Dobbins, Nick Chubb, James Conner, Miles Sanders, Khalil Herbert, David Montgomery, et cetera, et cetera… Or even if you aren’t. Snag Warren right now for depth, bye week fill in, trade value or just for a desperation start. When it comes to the metric that matter for fantasy football, he’s carrying serious, yet sneaky value.

---

Trending Now

Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em

Waiver Wire Pickups

Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings

2024 NFL Draft

Fantasy Football Team Names