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Over the past 10 years, we have only had four different tight ends finish as the TE1 for fantasy football. Those players were Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews. I looked at the data to see if I could predict who will finish as the TE1 in 2022. I looked at the Top-12 fantasy scoring tight ends from last season plus Darren Waller and TJ Hockenson to see how they compared as well.
What it Takes
First, I wanted to take a closer look at those four players mentioned above and see what stats they needed to average in order to finish as the TE1. I took the average of the past 10 seasons for receptions, yards, and touchdowns per season. The averages are listed below:
- 89 Receptions
- 1,204 Yards
- 9-10 TDs
Next, I looked at how old they were when they did this and what season they were in as a pro. Here’s what I came up with:
- Just under 28 years old
- 5-6 Years in the NFL
I then looked at how old were these four players when they had their first season as the fantasy TE1. The average of the four players was between 25 and 27 years old.
Next, I looked at the quarterbacks during their TE1 season. Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes were the quarterbacks for six of the 10 seasons. So being tied to an elite quarterback obviously does not hurt. The other four seasons were Alex Smith, Lamar Jackson, and Jay Cutler (twice).
Lastly, I looked at the four tight ends to see if there was anything in common with them per fantasy finishes before they actually became the top fantasy-scoring tight ends. They all finished in the Top-5 at least once before actually their TE1 season.
The following tight ends can be eliminated as they don’t meet the criteria above:
Zach Ertz – Ertz’s age is going to catch up to him but I think he can still finish in the Top-5 this year though. He will be 32 years old this season while playing in his 10th year in the league.
Pat Freiermuth – Freiermuth is too young and does not have a solid quarterback yet. He will be 24 years old this season.
Mike Gesicki – Is most likely the third option now in his offense behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. He never finished in the Top-5 for tight ends in fantasy football before. I do not see Tua Tagovailoa being able to support all the mouths to feed there in Miami.
Dallas Goedert – Goedert’s quarterback will hold him back from having a chance at the number one spot with the other weapons that they have in Philadelphia. He is the third option in that offense with Jalen Hurts throwing the ball.
Rob Gronkowski – Gronkowski’s age is going to catch up to him. I think he can still finish Top-5 this year though if he even plays this year. He would be 33 years old and playing in his 12th year in the league if he plays this season.
Hunter Henry – His quarterback is Mac Jones and New England is going to run the ball. He has never finished in the Top-5 for tight ends in fantasy football before.
TJ Hockenson – Hockenson’s quarterback will hold him back from having a chance at the number one spot with the other weapons that they have. Not sure where he will fall in the pecking order with Amon-Ra St Brown, D’Andre Swift, DJ Chark, and Jameson Williams when he gets back from his injury. I do not think he has a chance with Jared Goff as his quarterback.
Travis Kelce – Kelce’s age is going to catch up to him. He is entering year 10 and his age will be 33 this season. I think he can still be Top-5 though just not the number one tight end.
George Kittle – Kittle has finished in the Top-5 for tight ends before but he is going to be 29 years old this upcoming season, is too old to have the breakout to be the number one tight end in fantasy according to the above information.
Dawson Knox – Knox is a huge red-zone target for Josh Allen but does not get a ton of targets besides that. He has never finished in the top 5 for tight ends in fantasy football before.
Kyle Pitts – Pitts is simply too young and does not have a solid quarterback yet. He will be 22 years old this season.
Darren Waller – Waller has finished in the Top-5 for tight ends before but he is going to be 30 years old this upcoming season, which according to the data above, is too old to have the breakout to be the TE1 in fantasy football.
Who Fits the Criteria?
So which tight ends does that leave? 10 years is a decent sample size, and I’ve pulled all of the possible names that could finish as the TE1 this year, based on those numbers. There are two tight ends left who have a shot at the TE1 spot this year. One of them did it last year so it would not be a surprise if he did it again.
Mark Andrews – Just finished as the TE1 in 2021. With Brown out of the picture, there is a very good chance that Andrew could repeat as long as he stays healthy. Still, just 27 years old and heading into his fifth year in the NFL. He fits the criteria here and definitely has both the talent and the opportunity ahead of him.
Dalton Schultz – Schultz finished as the third tight end last year. Dallas lost Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup might miss the start of the season. Then there’s the rookie Jalen Tolbert and James Washington from Pittsburgh, but I do not think they will be stealing targets away from Schultz. He is tied to a solid quarterback in Dak Prescott, who has put up plenty of fantasy points over the years.
Schultz will be 26 this season entering his fifth season in the NFL. He will absolutely demand targets and proved himself plenty last year. He’ll be heavily involved in this offense once again and is a very solid red zone threat. You can target him fairly late in redraft leagues this year and he’ll be an excellent value.
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