Fantasy Football Sleepers – The AFC East

What is a ‘sleeper’ in fantasy sports? Basically, it is a player who exceeds their average draft position (ADP) over other players from the same position with a similar draft cost. An example of this from 2020 would be James Robinson. Few fantasy managers had any idea about the undrafted rookie before he stepped into the starting role in Jacksonville. He wowed everyone with over 1,400 total yards and 10 touchdowns, earning a spot in the top 10 of fantasy running backs.

To help you out with identifying a number of athletes who could fall into the ‘sleeper’ category, I will list one player from each NFL team that could provide a huge boost for your squad at a nicely discounted price. We’ll go by divisions for this article so you can more easily access these spicy picks.

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills – TE Dawson Knox

Everyone loves speculating about the third-year tight end breakout. Dawson Knox accomplished that feat last year with nine touchdowns on just 49 receptions. That’s one score for every 5.4 catches. At that rate, he’d have scored 13 times on 70 receptions! That’s a lot to ask but I think we can expect a larger number of targets for him in 2022.

The biggest changes to Buffalo’s offense have been of the negative variety. Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, and Tavon Austin are no longer with the club, vacating 221 targets. It’s likely that Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie get a significant number of those targets, but they can’t get them all. Knox has proven himself to be a great pass catcher as he hauled in 69% of his targets last year. He will, undoubtedly, get more passes thrown his way in 2022.

Let’s do a little math. Everyone likes math, right? If we double the targets for Davis and McKenzie’s this year, they’ll take 89 of those chances and leave 132 to be distributed. Now, we’ll take half of those away for rookie James Cook and we still have 66 remaining. Now, we take half of those targets (33), add them to Knox’s total from last year and extrapolate with his 61.2% career catch ratio and 12.5 YPR average. He would then haul in 63 passes for 787 yards. If he cut down his touchdown numbers to just five and puts all of that together, Knox finishes as the third-highest scoring tight end in 2021. 

There were a lot of numbers to think about, but there was a clear message: Knox could be the best value at his position with just a couple more targets in each game. As the 13th tight end off of the board in fantasy drafts, how can you not want to add him ahead of his 11th-round ADP? Sure, these numbers may be his ceiling, but it’s a ceiling that is attainable.

Miami Dolphins – WR Cedrick Wilson

In 2021 with Dallas, Cedrick Wilson showed flashes of what he could become in a bigger role. A strong, competitive player out of Boise State, Wilson scored six touchdowns last season with three of them coming in the final two regular season games. Now with a new squad, we’ll see if Wilson can build his professional profile.

Miami brought Wilson in over the offseason to work alongside the dynamic Tyreek Hill and sophomore standout Jaylen Waddle. While this may look to be more of the same for the former Cowboy, it’s not. With Hill and Waddle leading the offensive charge, Wilson has a different skill set that will allow him opportunities that he didn’t see playing behind Amari Cooper. His awareness and competitiveness stand out as attributes that will allow him targets not meant for his speedier teammates. His 13.38 YPR in 2021 also make him a steadfast target to convert first downs and red zone opportunities.

Of the 172 vacated Miami targets, there’s plenty to go to Wilson. You can grab him with the last pick in your fantasy draft as he could make for a great streaming candidate at the position. He can absolutely surmount other late-round picks like Sammy Watkins and Russell Gage and give you added depth in your wide receiver room.

New England Patriots – RB Damien Harris

Since the fantasy football world started to do mock and real drafts months ago, a lot has changed in regards to the Patriots’ running back staff. The ADP of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson is neck-and-neck after Harris’ early lead. The reports of Stevenson seeing an expanded pass-catching role similar to James White is massively appealing and has hurdled him past his partner-in-crime.

After the announcement of White’s retirement, many of us were left to wonder who would take over his role. It seems more likely that Stevenson will be a featured weapon out of the New England backfield, but that doesn’t mean we should forget about the man who scored 15 touchdowns in 2021. We may not see Harris get the same 220 touches he got last season, but he has proven to be a certifiable weapon when handed the ball with an average of 4.78 YPC over his career. The overall touches between the two running backs may very well balance out, but Harris still has value.

If anything, the change of ADPs for both players makes Harris an even greater profit in fantasy drafts. “Buy the dip,” as people say. With his draft cost continuing to cascade, there’s even more reason to covet him as a late 6th-round pick in fantasy drafts. I’d still take him before Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Tony Pollard who are going around that range as well.

New York Jets – TE Tyler Conklin

The departure of Kyle Rudolph and the season-ending injury that Irv Smith Jr. suffered left the field wide open for Tyler Conklin to show his stuff as the primary tight end for Minnesota in 2021. With 61 catches, 593 yards, and three touchdowns, Conklin showed that he can do much more than just block defenders as he crushed all of his career receiving numbers in one season.

With Smith Jr. all healed up (at the time), the moment was right for the Michigan native to seek employment elsewhere. The Jets came-a-calling and Conklin answered, bringing him on board to fight for the starting job against C.J. Uzomah. Early reports have suggested that Conklin has developed a strong kinship with both David Wilson and Joe Flacco. For a young quarterback and an offense looking to establish another consonant option in the passing game while Garrett Wilson acclimates to the NFL level, Conklin is making his case for that role.

For a guy that many fantasy managers are passing on, Conklin has some very nice upside if you want to wait until the end of your draft to acquire a tight end. We will likely find out very early in the year if he’s worth the roster spot. My money’s on him being a solid option for those streaming the position.

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