Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: Running Backs

To address this issue, I collected all of the weekly fantasy outputs of all running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends since 2010. By looking at the typical fantasy points needed to earn an RB1 performance (a Top-12 rusher for the week), a threshold of 17.3 fantasy points is identified as the marker for an RB1 performance.

This process was repeated for wide receivers and tight ends at the fantasy-relevant markers with WR1, WR2, TE1, etc. Hitting this threshold doesn’t guarantee that a player is exactly a Top-12 wide receiver, for instance, but it is a fitting barometer to determine if a given week’s output would typically be a Top-12 performance. 

Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

Armed with these thresholds as well as each player’s weekly output it was time to determine which defenses allowed these types of games. With a bit of spreadsheet magic, it is fairly easy to calculate how many of these performances each defense gave up.  This is useful but inevitably leads to questioning who was putting up these performances. It should be expected that a player who would finish the year as a Top-12 running back would put up RB1 numbers on a typical week. So the next step was identifying how many of these RB1 performances were given up by a particular defense to rushers that wouldn’t finish the year as an RB1.

A quick note before jumping into the numbers – Strength of Schedule is notoriously flimsy as a metric. These numbers and assumptions are based on last year as a whole and do not account for changes to the defense via free agency, draft, and coaching changes. There is value in attacking weak defenses that have not made adjustments. However, any strength of schedule metrics should be viewed as tie-breakers at most and should not be the only statistic used to justify a good/bad fantasy football pick. Let’s start with the running backs.

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Teams With Soft Schedules For Running Backs

The AFC East (Buffalo, Miami, New England)

Considering how bad the New York Jets were for rushers last year it is not surprising that the entire AFC East has a soft schedule for rushers. All three teams play have schedules that rank in the top six easiest for RB1 and RB2 performances. The biggest issue for fantasy football is that all three of these teams have a running back room without a clear leader.

Chase Edmonds should headline these backfields considering his lack of established competition in Miami but he brings some concerns of his own. The bottom line is there will be some hidden gems among these backfields. You just need to be brave enough to invest and lucky enough to have invested in the right back. 

Chicago Bears

The Bears’ offense is full of question marks. Is Justin Fields able to lead this team? Is Darnell Mooney going to be able to become the team’s top wide receiver? Who else will be catching passes for this offense? Cole Kmet?

The one piece that could be a permanent mark among the penciled-in offensive starters is David Montgomery. Montgomery could be the engine that drives this offense, especially considering the Bears will not face any of the top quarter of the defenses that allowed RB1 performances. Of the last seven games of the fantasy season, the Bears face four of the bottom quarter defenses in allowing RB1 performances including the above-mentioned Jets, and the Lions twice including in championship Week 17. 

Minnesota Vikings

Dalvin Cook is one of the few top-tier backs with what looks to be a favorable schedule for the upcoming season. The three weeks leading up to most fantasy football playoffs will all be against bottom-quarter defenses in allowing RB1 performances. Alexander Mattison has stepped up nicely when Cook has missed time, but for the most part, we’re just looking at Cook in this offense. 

Unfortunately, the Vikings face two of the better rushing defenses in the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs.   

Teams With Tough Schedules For Running Backs

Cincinnati Bengals

Despite the concerns with his offensive line, Joe Mixon finally reached the level that truthers have been waiting for after his 2021 performance. However, now he faces the toughest schedule for RB1 performances in 2022. Coming up for the Bengals’ rushing game are three of the toughest rush defenses from last year including two matchups with the Ravens. They also must face the Rams, Saints, and Buccaneers who aren’t easy matchups. Mixon and company only get two positive matchups versus the Jets and the Falcons, both of these games happen early in the year. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Miles Sanders has been a frustrating player to manage in fantasy and it won’t get much easier if the defenses the Eagles play in 2022 continue their ability to hold opposing rushers. Only three games this coming year for Sanders are against bottom-third defenses versus nine games against top third defenses including championship week against New Orleans Saints tied with the league’s least RB1 performances given up. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette will be joined in the Tampa Bay backfield by rookie Rachaad White, but the future does not look bright based on the schedule. The Bucs only get three plus matches on the season and the remainder of the schedule is middle-of-the-pack or top-tier defenses in stopping fantasy rushers. Not only do these defenses stop RB1 performances they also are stingy with RB2 performances. 

Strength of Schedule: Wide Receivers

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