Fantasy Football Week 11 Consistency Corner
On the cusp of Week 11 many fantasy football managers are eyeing the playoffs. Whether you need to win out, or if you’re just trying to secure a first-round bye, roster consistency is getting more and more important. Fortunately, we are on a bit of a real-life, NFL bye-week break, with only two teams on their bye’s. The Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos players are certainly widely rostered. But there are plenty of alternatives. So let’s see what our Consistency Score can tell us this week with Fantasy Football Week 11 Consistency Corner.
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Consistency Score: DST
Fantasy Football Consistency Risers
James Conner – 15 to 12
With Chase Edmonds now placed on injured reserve, this Arizona backfield is securely James Conners’ for the next few weeks. Eno Benjamin should also see some passing-down snaps, but Conner will get the bulk of the opportunities. If Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins continue to miss time, that puts a bit of a ceiling cap on Conner’s upside. But he will continue to be a Top-10 option in Week 11.
Over the past two weeks, since Edmonds got hurt, Conner has seen 75% of the team’s offensive snaps and 71% of the running back opportunities (39). He finished Week 9 as the No.1 overall running back in fantasy with 37.8 fantasy points. And Week 10 was the 16th running back with 13.9, against a very tough Carolina Panthers defense. Volume alone dictates Conner needs to be starting in your lineups.
But beyond that, it’s also a tantalizing matchup in Week 11 as Arizona heads up into the Pacific Northwest to face off against their division rival, the Seattle Seahawks. Unlike the Panthers in Week 10, who rank 31st in D-PAC against running backs, the Seahawks are a matchup to target in 2021. Their 14.88 D-PAC vs running backs ranks fourth highest and their 30.93 average points allowed are the second highest. The Cardinals’ game plan is apt to feature the run, especially if Colt McCoy is starting under center again. And with this matchup, it should be another big week for Conner.
Elijah Moore – 62 to 52
The second-round rookie had an extremely slow start to his fantasy football career. From Weeks 1 through their bye week (Week 6), Elijah Moore averaged a paltry 2.65 fantasy points per game. Since coming back from the bye, he’s averaged 13.9, and popped off a ceiling game of 23.9 in Week 9 for his one Top-10 performance on the season.
He’s averaged 6.5 targets per game since then, and his CS over the past four weeks would be 4.93. A full 2 points higher than his current season-long, 2.55. That 4.93 would launch him up the rankings to 18th, just under Michael Pittman Jr. The Jets offense is still nothing to get excited about. But Moore is now becoming a viable flex option in the right matchups.
Week 11, the Jets play host to the Miami Dolphins who have looked great over the past two weeks. This is kind of a mixed bag, as one of those weeks was against the hapless Houston Texans. But the other was against the AFC North front runner, Baltimore Ravens. On the season though, it looks like a matchup you can take advantage of.
Even in those two games that Miami won in decisive fashions, they still gave up 32+ fantasy points per game to the receiver position. On the season, they rank highest among all NFL teams in D-PAC vs WRs, 20.92, while averaging the third-most points per game allowed. Moore could be a sneaky valuable start in Week 11 in fantasy football.
Fantasy Football Consistency Fallers
Javonte Williams – 22 to 25
Disclaimer, this take on Javonte Williams is geared for redraft leagues only. Williams in dynasty and even keeper leagues holds much more value when projecting into future seasons. But looking at Williams’ usage and the Denver Broncos’ upcoming schedule, it might not be a bad idea to package Williams in a deal at the trade deadline to upgrade a position.
Williams is in a serious split with Melvin Gordon. On the year, Williams has been on the field for 46% of the offensive snaps, compared to Gordon at 53.5%. Williams has also split touches with Gordon, 127 to 139 respectively. That’s held true as the season has progressed. Many fantasy football managers had hoped that as the season went on, Williams would start to take over the lead role. But over the past three contests, Godron is still out touching Willaims 46 to 38. And possibly most importantly, Gordon is leading in Red Zone opportunities as well. 27 to 19 on the season, and over the past three weeks Gordon again leads, 10 to six.
While Williams has shown potential in his rookie campaign, there just doesn’t seem to be any indicators that he’s suddenly going to overtake Gordon for that “lead dog” role in this backfield. And the Teddy Bridgewater-led Broncos offense just isn’t powerful enough to support two viable fantasy runningbacks week in and week out.
Their fantasy football playoffs schedule is a mixed bag. With a few decent matchups and a couple of gross ones, there just doesn’t seem to be any time where managers are going to feel comfortable starting the Broncos’ number two running back. Packaging Williams with another piece to snag a verifiable upgrade seems like the most value Williams is going to provide redraft managers in 2021.
T.J. Hockenson – 7 to 13
In a Weel 10 game that included a full overtime period, T.J. Hockenson put up a goose egg, not only for fantasy rosters but for the actual box score too. He might have an outsized role in his offense than most other tight ends, but the quality of this offense is so bad that it still doesn’t translate to consistent fantasy production.
For the season, Hockenson ranks seventh in total fantasy points scored (82.8). But in nine games, he’s scored less than seven points, and outside the top 16 TEs, in four weeks. Five weeks this year he has been in the single digits. His best performance came in Week 1, when he snagged eight of his 11 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown, racking up 21.7 fantasy points. He hasn’t come close to that again since Week 3.
In five “quarters” of play in Week 10 Hockenson’s quarterback, Jared Goff only managed to pass for 114 yards, completing 14 of 25 attempts. Now he’s dealing with an oblique injury and might not even play in Week 11 against the Clevland Browns. The Browns D-PAC score vs Tight Ends of 3.48, ranks 23rd and their 11.87 average points allowed ranks 19th. This isn’t a great matchup for tight ends on normal teams. But considering the Lions have been horrible, with the top quarterback under center, and now Hockenson might have someone named Tim Boyle throwing him the ball, you just simply can’t rely on him in this matchup.
Fantasy Football Stream of the Week
Cam Newton – Rostered in 46% of Leagues
Cam Newton is starting under center for the Carolina Panthers. Yes, it is still the year 2021. But after a decent reintroduction to the team, completing three of his four attempts for eight yards, a touchdown, and rushing in another score in Week 10 against Arizona, he gets a chance to lead this football team once more. And the Week 11 matchup hosting the Washington Football Team is as tantalizing a prospect as one could hope for.
The pass-funneling Washington Football Team defense has allowed the ninth-highest completion rate, 67.4, and ninth-highest yards per pass attempt in the NFL, 7.7. Their 10.14 D-PAC score against quarterbacks is the highest in the league and they are also allowing the most average points per game, 23.49, to the position. Pair that with Newton’s rushing ability and he should be a Top-10 quarterback option in Week 11. And still available in more than half of fantasy football leagues.
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