Fantasy Football Week 12 Consistency Corner

Only two teams are on their bye week  But those two teams being the Arizona Cardinals and Kansas City Chiefs, fantasy football managers are still feeling squeezed. Both teams are huge on the fantasy stage this season. But nonetheless, that’s still only two teams. So there are plenty of great options to fill in the holes. But a good fantasy football manager doesn’t chase last weeks points. So let’s take a look a little deeper into the numbers and find out what the Consistency Score is telling us heading into Week 12.

What is the Consistency Score?

Consistency Score Home

Consistency Score: Running Backs

Consistency Score: Wide Receivers

Consistency Score: Tight Ends

Consistency Score: DST

Fantasy Football Consistency Risers

Justin Herbert – 12 to 9

Recently it’s felt a bit like a roller coaster if you’re rostering Justin Herbert. 13.82 fantasy points in Week 8, followed by a 31.64 performance. Then he dropped back down to 12 fantasy points in Week 10, only to crush it again with 34.28 against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11. So take a deep breath, a step back, and repeat after me. “Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks for fantasy football.”

His 8.49 CS ranks ninth among all quarterbacks. He’s been a borderline top-12 option for fantasy football managers for about half the season. But has been steadily rising over the past four weeks. Part of that is other top QB options have all hit skids including Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. But another part of it, very few other quarterbacks can do what Herbert can.

Out of the top-12 Quarterbacks in CS, Herbert’s 42.82 ceiling is the highest among all of those signal-callers. Simply put, no other quarterback has a higher demonstrated upside in fantasy football this season. Meanwhile, his floor has only dipped down to 11 fantasy points. Out of the top-12, only the top three quarterbacks Jalen Hurts (11.22), Tom Brady (11.06), and Lamar Jackson (11.78) have higher floor performances.

On the season, Herbert ranks fifth among all quarterbacks in total fantasy points, 225.78, and fourth in average fantasy points scored 22.6. But that raises up to 22.94 since their Week 7 bye. A big part of that production can be attributed to Herbert’s ability to run the ball and his willingness to do it more recently.  In Week 11 he ran nine times for 90 yards. His athletic profile suggests he would be an extremely dangerous offensive weapon if he continues to develop into a dual-threat. Which would solidify his fantasy football floor and make managers very happy.

So let us repeat that mantra once more. “Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks for fantasy football.”

Devonta Freeman – 50 to 48

So after Week 11, I don’t think I need to tell any fantasy football managers out there that Jonathan Taylor is the new non-quarterback leader in Consistency Score. But considering Devonta Freeman was started on only 40% of rosters in Week 11, there are plenty of managers who need to realize, Freeman is a fantasy contributor again.

Freeman’s recent career hasn’t been as flashy as his early years. But especially after the Baltimore Ravens released Le’Veon Bell, it’s clear that Freeman is “the guy” for the Ravens. He has tied or led the backfield in touches in each of the last four games. He’s also scored double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. Since Week six he’s averaged 12.46 fantasy points per game, which ranks 20th among all running backs over that span.

His CS over that same time span rises up from 2.2 to 5.57, which would rank 10th among all running backs for that same six-week period.

It’s clear, the Ravens trust Freeman in that backfield. And that means fantasy football managers need to trust him in our starting lineups as well.

Fantasy Football Consistency Fallers

A.J. Brown – 39 to 40

The recent slip from Week 10 to 11 doesn’t tell the whole story. A.J. Brown has been steadily dipping lower and lower in Consistency Score rankings since Week 8 when he was the 35th receiver in CS.

It’s hard to believe that the Tennessee Titans’ best remaining offensive skill player has been so bad since Derrick Henry left the field in Week 8. But Brown hasn’t scored a touchdown since that Week 8 game. That was also the last time he recorded 100+ yards. Despite quarterback Ryan Tannehill averaging 226 yards passing and a touchdown a game over that span.

One factor that, alas, must be talked about is that Brown keeps missing game time banged up on the sideline. In Week 11 it started early with a hand injury. And then culminated with a chest injury just after halftime that robbed fantasy managers of any real hope. Before that, a knee injury nagged at him heading into Week 9 and 10. Brown might be the biggest risk for in-game injuries in 2021. Not really a great title to have.

[pickup_prop id=”5462″]

Josh Jacobs – 14 to 18

At two different points, this season Josh Jacobs peaked with a fantasy football consistency score ranking third-best among all running backs. Week 7 (7.10) and Week 9 (7.37), and the Las Vegas Raiders were on their bye week Week 8. But post Week 11 his CS has dropped down to 5.14, nearly two full points from those earlier scores.

Two out of his last three games, Jacobs has been in the single digits when it comes to fantasy production. And three out of the last four games he’s been in single-digit carries. The saving grace has been a slight uptick in targets on average, compared to years past.

But still, it can’t be ignored that the Raiders offense has scored less than 17 points, and lost,  in each of the last three contests.  Jacobs hasn’t been able to fall into the end zone in any of those games either.

With all of the upheaval that has gone on with the Raiders organization in-season this year, it’s not a terrible surprise this team has been a little shell-shocked. But if they can’t pick themselves up, and soon, fantasy football managers aren’t going to be able to trust Jacobs moving forward.

Stream of the Week

Mac Jones – Rostered in 45% of Leagues

Back in Week 7, I made Mac Jones my stream of the Week and he rewarded managers as the eighth-best quarterback in fantasy football with 307  yards, two touchdowns, and 22.2 fantasy points. So I thought I would go back to that well for Week 12.

Jones has bobbed in between 18th and 23rd in his Consistency Score rankings, pretty much all season. As of Week 11, he has a 5.99 CS and has only been a top-12 quarterback in 18.2% of games played. But this New England Patriots offense has found its grove and been rolling opponents for five straight wins.

During that win streak, the offense has increased its average points scored from 20.83 points per game in the first six games, to 35 points per game over the last five. Jones has increased his touchdown per attempt rate from 0.033 to 0.051 and decreased his average interceptions per game from 1 to 0.4.

In Week 11 Jones and the New England Patriots host the Tennessee Titans in Foxborough.  The Titans are not only allowing the third-most points on average to the quarterback position but also have the second-highest D-PAC score against the position. They’re allowing a lot of points, more regularly than almost any other team, to the position.

The Titans have had the second-most pass attempts thrown on them, allowed the fifth-most passing yards, and have a two-to-one touchdown to interception rate. Also, tied for the fifth-most passes for 40+ yards allowed (7), the “big play” is in the cards for Jones this week.

Did you like this piece? Disagree? Drop me a line and let me know @DumpsterDiveFF and go ahead and follow for more fantasy football nuggets & all things Consistency Score related! If you’re a fantasy football content creator, please take advantage of the Consistency Score and use it in your content!

We are excited to announce that The FF Faceoff is an official Affiliate of FanDuel!

Sign up at Fanduel.com/FFFaceoff for a 20% match on your first deposit up to $5,000. 

DFS Home

Free NFL Picks

Player Prop Bets

Sign up for BetUS today with the promo code FACEOFF and get a 125% match on your first deposit! Join here.

What is the Consistency Score?

Consistency Score Home

Consistency Score: Running Backs

Consistency Score: Wide Receivers

Consistency Score: Tight Ends

Consistency Score: DST

Revenge Game Tracker