FF Faceoff Recap: Week 11
Welcome to The FF Faceoff’s weekly report, a first take at the biggest fantasy football takeaways from this weekend’s action. Each week we will provide an overall gut check from the week and nominate our risers, fallers, dynasty stashes, and more. Let’s get straight to it this week with Fantasy Faceoff Recap: Week 11.
Risers
Jonathan Taylor
(RB1, 32 carries, 185 yards, 4 TDs, 3 receptions, 19 yards, 1 TD, 53.4 PPR points)
There are few words that accurately express the season Jonathan Taylor is having and the talent of this second-year running back. His consistency this season has been the one sure thing in a 2021 season that continues to bring twists and turns, and on Sunday, he silenced any remaining naysayers about who he is.
Typically the risers category is reserved for players that have been struggling and are getting back on pace, but this week I’m highlighting Taylor because it’s past time we start discussing him as the number one draft pick in 2022 and the number one dynasty pick.
Taylor now has eight consecutive games with at least 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, keeping that streak alive against the number one defense in the league. It doesn’t matter who he faces right now, Taylor is getting it done, and if you drafted him this season, you likely got one of the best value picks of 2021. Well done.
Cam Newton
(QB4, 21-27, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 10 carries, 46 yards, 1 TD, 26.16 points)
I might be a little biased on this front, as I live in North Carolina, so my newsfeed has been filled with Cam Newton hype, but there’s a different energy in Charlotte with Newton returning home. No, he was not able to get the Panthers a win on Sunday, but he looked the part and played more like the Newton we’ve all come to love.
Particularly if you’re in a 2QB or Superflex league, Newton provides a solid floor with his rushing ability and significant upside with the chances to score multiple rushing touchdowns and get it done through the air. I know last season was rough for him, but during the preseason he appeared to be sharper on his throws, displaying the work he continues to put in. Next week, the Panthers face off against the Miami Dolphins, providing another great opportunity to stream Newton in Week 12.
Brandon Aiyuk
(WR8, 7 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD, 21.5 PPR points)
After one of the most disappointing starts to the season, Brandon Aiyuk broke 20 fantasy points for the first time in 2021 and has now scored double-digit points in three of his last four games. His next four games are against Minnesota, Seattle, Cincinnati, and Atlanta, all pass defenses that don’t particularly scare you.
And while I’m hopeful that this is a sign of what we can expect from Aiyuk for the next six to seven weeks, I’m nervous that this will be an outlier based on the game plan from San Francisco this past Sunday.
With Elijah Mitchell out, many expected Jeff Wilson Jr. to take over the running back role. Largely, that’s what happened, with Wilson getting 19 carries for 50 yards. But what also happened is that Deebo Samuel got eight carries for 79 yards and a touchdown.
While that is incredible news for managers of Samuel, it makes me nervous about Aiyuk, because it suggests to me that Samuel was running fewer routes, meaning there were naturally more targets available for Aiyuk. Perhaps this is a game strategy that remains, with Samuel having two consecutive weeks with at least five carries, but it also makes me wonder how representative this performance is for the remainder of the season. And knowing Kyle Shanahan, only he really knows.
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Fallers
Josh Allen
(QB13, 21-35, 209 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 carries, 18 yards, 16.16 points)
This is more a venting session for me as I have Josh Allen in two leagues, one of which is my home league with my college friends. For the second time in three games, Allen threw for multiple interceptions and failed to score at least 20 fantasy points, after entering the season as the consensus QB2.
While I fully expect Allen to have better days ahead, his schedule moving forward is looking increasingly challenging as the NFL sorts out who’s good and who isn’t. Over the next five games, Allen faces off against New Orleans, New England, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and New England again.
Each of these teams has different strengths that make me nervous for the stretch for Allen, mostly in that most of them are able to rush the passer, which forces opposing quarterbacks into mistakes. Maybe we see Allen find another gear as the Bills’ playoff spot becomes less certain, but it might actually be worth shopping around and stashing someone, like a Cam Newton, who can move into your quarterback spot if the Bills go on a downturn.
Emmanuel Sanders
(WR58, 3 receptions, 26 yards, 5.6 PPR points)
When Emmanuel Sanders put up zero points in week eight, I thought “That’s weird” (queue Cardi B gif). It seemed too much of an outlier to not be a blip on the radar. But since that performance, he has only hit double figures once, and that was in Buffalo’s nine-to-six loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Some of Sanders’ struggles can be attributed to the struggles of Josh Allen, but I’m starting to have larger concerns about the Bills’ offensive scheme moving forward. They only attempted 11 rushes on Sunday.
To be fair, they were behind early, so the game script wasn’t in their favor, but they didn’t even start out running the ball, taking just three running plays in the first quarter. This is despite having a positive average EPA (estimated points averaged) when running the ball. It may not be the fun way to rack up fantasy points, but I’m hoping Buffalo takes a more balanced approach moving forward, which will hopefully open up the passing lanes.
DK Metcalf
(WR51, 4 receptions, 31 yards, 7.1 PPR points)
Speaking of receivers who struggled thanks to poor quarterback play, DK Metcalf barely impacted Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals, in a matchup that always reminds us of that incredible rundown from 2020.
It’s challenging to make an impact when your quarterback only completes 14 passes and finishes with just over a 50% completion percentage, and while Metcalf typically is the safer floor play in Seattle, he was held to just 50% of completed targets, and without a touchdown that left him outside the top 50 receivers in Week 11.
While the Seahawks have struggled for several games, I imagine Metcalf gets back on track as Russell Wilson continues to recover from his finger injury, getting back to the confident passer we’re used to seeing.
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Dynasty Stashes
Dez Fitzpatrick
(WR26, 3 receptions, 35 yards, 1 TD, 12.5 PPR points)
The fourth-round pick out of Louisville was called up from the practice squad before Tennessee’s Week 10 matchup against the Saints, and with Julio Jones out again, Dez Fitzpatrick saw an increased role on Sunday in the loss to the Texans.
Now, the obvious caveat to this performance is that it was against the Houston Texans, but Fitzpatrick has impressive numbers from college, coming in as a rare receiver that played all four years of his college career. What strikes me from his numbers is that each season he increased his yards per reception and had decent success despite only averaging three to four catches per game.
While Fitzpatrick may not have the breakout potential as others, he could shake out as a consistent floor play if he gets increased opportunities over time.
Mac Jones
(QB17, 22-26, 207 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 6 carries, 1 yard, 10.38 points)
Of the rookie quarterback class, Mac Jones has definitely been the most impressive to date. He is also in the best situation, with plenty of talent surrounding him and competent coaching on his side. The combination of his skills and his situation makes him a clear dynasty stash in my book, as he has the potential to be a low-end QB1 to high-end QB2 play for years to come.
Whether you need him to fill in when your main starter is on a bye, or you’re in a 2QB or Superflex league, Jones is worth keeping stashed in your dynasty league.
Notable Targets
Elijah Moore, 11 targets: Elijah Moore has quietly been on a run of five consecutive games with at least 10 fantasy points and just had his first week with at least 10 targets. He was helped this week by the fact that Joe Flacco got the start at quarterback, as Mike White had been targeting the running backs at an extremely high rate. Nonetheless, Moore has been quarterback proof over the past five games, a promising sign for the rookie receiver.
Keenan Allen, 13 targets: While it was Mike Williams scoring the touchdown, Keenan Allen once again displayed that he is the number one receiver in LA, finishing with 13 targets compared to Williams’ six. Allen has one of the safest floors right now, has zero games under 10 fantasy points, and four consecutive weeks with at least 11 targets. For managers moving towards the playoffs, Allen remains the safe bet in Los Angeles, with Williams the more volatile play.
Deebo Samuel, 2 targets: As referenced earlier, Samuel ended Sunday with eight carries, making for his second straight game with at least five carries. While this is a welcome added-layer to his performance, this week it came at the expense of his pass-game usage, which for me strikes some significant concern. Samuel has traditionally been this “gadget” player that is used in unique ways, but we still need pass-game usage from him to be useful in PPR and 1/2-PPR leagues.
Monday Night Preview
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a strange week where there is little fantasy-relevant information I’m looking to gain from a matchup. The thing I am looking forward to the most is the presumable return of Saquon Barkley from his ankle injury suffered in Week 5.
Before his injury, Barkley had just started to get rolling after returning from his ACL injury from a year ago, having three consecutive games with over an 80% snap share and two consecutive games with at least five receptions. In his return on Monday, I’ll first be watching his load to see if New York takes a similar approach at easing him back into a full game load.
Apart from that, I’ll be paying close attention to how he looks running the ball. I’d like to see how he looks when making cuts and running routes to understand just how comfortable he is feeling coming off that injury. My hope is that this was just an unfortunate and unlucky injury that he can move past and get back to his typical self we’ve come to know. With such a tough matchup to come back to in primetime, this will be a big test for Barkley.
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