Free Agency Fallout: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

This has easily been one of the biggest and craziest years in NFL free agency. A lot of the moves in this free agency period have a significant impact on fantasy football, which is what we all care about.  I will go over the impact that these free agency moves had on some players and their fantasy football outlook in Free Agency Fallout: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.

The Good

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa has to be the biggest winner of free agency so far this year. The Miami Dolphins added wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson, running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, as well as offensive linemen Terron Armstead and Connor Williams. Tagovailoa has everything he needs to take the next step and prove that he is a franchise quarterback. With Tagovailoa now having Hill, one of the most electrifying wide receivers in the NFL, along with the other offensive additions I believe he will finish as a top 15 fantasy quarterback.

Allen Robinson

Allen Robinson is another huge winner from free agency this year. He now gets to catch passes from Matthew Stafford who is by far the best quarterback he’s played with throughout his entire NFL career. Just take a look at the disgusting list of quarterbacks Robinson has played with: Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, and rookie Justin Fields. Even with that motley crew of quarterbacks, he managed to have three top 10 finishes in full PPR. Robinson will finish this season as a top 12 wide receiver, book it!

James Conner

Arizona Cardinals signed running back James Conner to a three-year deal and did not resign Chase Edmonds. With less competition in the backfield, Conner will see more touches this year. Conner had just 202 carries and finished as the RB5 in 2021. It would not surprise me if he finished the season with 260+ carries. He’s had double-digit rushing touchdowns in two of the last four seasons and I believe he is a lock for double-digit rushing touchdowns this year.

The Bad

Trevor Lawrence

Why is Trevor Lawrence a loser in free agency? Because the moves the front office made this off-season are what the kids these days would call an “Epic fail.” They chose not to re-sign D.J. Chark and then paid way too much to Christian Kirk who I believe is an average to slightly above average wide receiver. Kirk has never had 80 receptions or 1,000 yards in a single season. They also brought in Zay Jones who hasn’t done much since entering the NFL and Evan Engram who hasn’t had a top 12 finish since his rookie season. The Jaguars had a chance to give their franchise quarterback filet mignon but gave him a bologna sandwich instead. I just don’t see how any of these moves will do much to help Lawrence.

Ezekiel Elliott

I see Ezekiel Elliot as a loser in free agency because Dallas lost two of their offensive linemen in La’el Collins and Connor Williams. The Cowboys offensive line is not as dominant as it once was and on top of that Tony Pollard is carving out a bigger role in the offense. In the last two seasons, Elliott has failed to get 250 carries and I don’t see him that changing this season. In 2021 he had 12 or fewer carries in seven games. I believe the defense will also have an impact on Elliott and the run game. They also lost Randy Gregory in free agency which will definitely hurt this defense. The Cowboys defense led the league in total takeaways with 34 which was 11 more than they had in 2020. I think the defense takes a major step back and will have closer to the 23 takeaways in 2020 than the 34 last year and because of this, I think they will find themselves in a negative game script more often this year and be forced to pass more. For all these reasons I see Elliott finishing outside the top 10.

D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore signed a three-year extension with the Carolina Panthers. Unfortunately, it looks like he will be stuck with Sam Darnold or a rookie quarterback this year after failing to trade for Deshaun Watson. There is a good chance that he will have a below-average to an average quarterback throwing him the ball for the next few years. In his four years in the league, Moore has only two top 24 seasons and zero top 12 seasons. I see another frustrating and underwhelming season for Moore. What they do at the quarterback position between now and the NFL draft will have a major impact on his fantasy future.

The  Ugly

D. K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett

It is pretty simple to see why D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are major losers in free agency. They go from catching passes from Russell Wilson to catching passes from Drew Lock or potentially a rookie quarterback. If Lockett isn’t traded and stays in Seattle, his value plummets. Wilson and Lockett had excellent chemistry and were one of the best quarterback to wide receiver connections in the NFL. As for Metcalf, he is still very young but this puts his fantasy future in question. I think it is safe to say that Lock is not the future, at least we hope not for Metcalf’s sake. While Seattle has the 9th overall pick in the upcoming draft and could take a quarterback there is no guarantee that the quarterback they draft pans out. As bad as this is for Metcalf it could potentially provide a nice buy-low opportunity if some owners get desperate to sell.

Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield has had a rough week with the Browns treating him like a redheaded stepchild by going all-in on Deshaun Watson.  Mayfield knows he is no longer the starter in Cleveland and has requested a trade but so far no teams have shown serious interest. Like a man without a country, Mayfield might as well be a man without a team. The landing spots for quarterbacks are disappearing fast, so will he be forced to take a job as a backup quarterback or a job on a team with an open quarterback competition?

Let me know what you think on Twitter @Kelldon83. 

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