Free March Madness Picks: Providence vs South Dakota State

With March Madness officially beginning today the 2nd game of the day seems to be everybody’s favorite upset on the board. The #4 seed Providence will take on #13 seed South Dakota State in a game that everybody has already had South Dakota State moving on since the match-up was announced on Sunday. Let me fill you in on why you shouldn’t listen to the public or media and why this game won’t be an upset.

South Dakota State

Firstly I could even begin to give three good reasons as to why South Dakota State will win this game other than that they’re a powerhouse of a team on offense. South Dakota State comes into this match up outmatched, the Jack Rabbits run their line up with four starting guards on the court tallest one being 6’6” and one big man at 6’7” on the other side for the Friars they run your typical starting line up with two guards, two forwards, and the big man at the five in Nate Watson who has been phenomenal for them this year. Right away with the likes of 6’10” Nate Watson, 6’8” Noah Horchler, and 6’7” Justin Minaya it’s hard for me to believe the Jack Rabbits will have an answer in the paint vs the Friars. Now the questions begin whether Jack Rabbits will have to insert more big men into the game and play completely different from how they’ve played all year with their 4 guards on the court.

For the Jack Rabbits, they averaged 86.7 PPG on the year and that seems to be the only reason why people are quick to jump to an upset but when diving into it deeper this team isn’t as good as many think. Jack Rabbits didn’t play any high level competition this year ranking 147 in the strength of schedule and their toughest game of the year was versus Alabama who is a #6 seed in the tournament how did that turn out? Well, they lost and allowed 104 points in that game in 40 minutes of basketball. Embarrassing in my opinion, which leads to my next point as to why this South Dakota State team is overhyped.

South Dakota State can’t just rely on their offense all game, they’re going to need to make stops and play defense, well that doesn’t tread well for them as they rank as the 2nd worst team out of all 64 teams in the tournament in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at 105.3, also rank dead last out of all 64 teams in 3 point percentage allowed at 35.2% and second-worse in Effective Field Goal % at 51.5%. For the Providence Friars, they played a great season and finished the season at 25-5. For what seemed to be a tough year for them as they ranked 47th in strength of schedule they managed to beat quality teams, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and even Uconn. Providence comes into this game with their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranked 32nd in the nation and ranked 26th out of the 64 teams in the tournament.

Providence -2

Providence -2 is the play here, South Dakota State just won’t come up with any stops in this game and they seemed to be outsized, Providence bigs will have their way in the paint. I believe this line should be a little higher but I’ll gladly take the -2.

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